Humbulela 2/3 tshikati: Mutambo wa vhege mahala

Nanga nomboro. Ane a kunda ndi ane a vha tsini-tsini na 2/3 ya tshikati tsha nomboro dza vhoṱhe kha heyi vhege. Ndi mahala, a hu ṱoḓei u ḓiṅwalisa.

Nga tshigwada tsha HelibrainZwo sedzwa nga Robert(Luisimane), mugudiswa wa PhD kha biophysicsZwo gandiswa nga 11/4/2026Zwo sedzwa lwa u fhedzisela nga 11/4/2026

U vhala mvelelo yau

Tshigwada tshau tshi sumbedza uri wo humbula maga mangana u ya phanḓa. U nanga tsini na 50 ndi tshigwada 0: a wo ngo humbula nga ha vhaṅwe. Tsini na 33 ndi tshigwada 1: "vhathu vha ḓo nanga tsini na 50". Tsini na 22 ndi tshigwada 2: "vhathu vha ḓo humbula ḽiga ḽithihi u ya phanḓa". Ḽiga ḽiṅwe na ḽiṅwe ndi 2/3 ya ḽe ḽa vha hone phanḓa haḽo [1].
Phindulo ya thyiori ya mitambo ndi 0. Arali vhoṱhe vha humbula u swika magumoni, nomboro dzoṱhe dza u nanga dzi ḓo fhungudzea dza swika kha 0. Vhatambi vha vhukuma a vha vhuya vha ita zwenezwo, ndi ngazwo 0 i sa athu vhuya ya kunda kha muṱaṱisano wa nnyi na nnyi [1][2].
A i nga si kone u kunda: u nanga nomboro i fhiraho 66.7 a zwi nga kundo, ngauri naho vhoṱhe vha nanga 100, tshikongomelo tshi ḓo vha 66.7.
Mukundi wa heyi vhege u ḓo bvelela musi raundi i tshi fhela (rau ndi iṅwe na iṅwe i dzhia vhege, u bva Musumbuluwo u swika Swondaha, UTC). A ri sumbedzi tshikati tsha zwino musi raundi i sa athu fhela: zwenezwo zwi nga tshinya mutambo. Raundi i tea u vha na vhatambi vha linganaho 30 uri i vhe na mvelelo.

Ndi nomboro ifhio ya khwine ya u nanga?

A hu na nomboro nthihi ya khwine ya u nanga: zwi bva kha nomboro dzine vhaṅwe vhoṱhe vha dzi nanga. Kha miṱaṱisano mihulu ya nnyi na nnyi, tshikongomelo tsho vha vhukati ha 13 na 22. Vhavhali vha Financial Times vho swika tshikati tsha 18.9, ngauralo tshikongomelo tsho vha 12.6 [2]. Kha muṱaṱisano wa gurannḓa ya Denmark we wa vha na vhavhali vha 19,196, tshikati tsho vha 32.4 nahone tshikongomelo tsha vha 21.6 [3].

Girafu ya mitsindo: tshikati tsha nomboro dza u nanga na tshikongomelo kha miṱaṱisano miṋa yo gandiswaho. Pfunzo ya laboratori 1995: tshikati 36.7, tshikongomelo 24.5. Politiken 2005: tshikati 32.4, tshikongomelo 21.6. Spektrum 1997: tshikati 22.1, tshikongomelo 14.7. Financial Times 1997: tshikati 18.9, tshikongomelo 12.6. — **Tshifanyiso 1.** Tshikati tsha nomboro dza u nanga na tshikongomelo tsha 2/3 kha miṱaṱisano miṋa yo gandiswaho. Mafhungo: Nagel 1995, raundi ya u thoma, matshudeni 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, vhavhali 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, vhavhali 2,728, na Financial Times 1997, vhavhali 1,476 [2].

Mafhungo nga u ṱavhanya

Tshi sumbedzaho: uri u humbula maga mangana phanḓa nga ha zwine vhaṅwe vhathu vha ḓo ita. Vha ekonomi vha vhidza hezwi u humbula ha level-k [1][4].
Muedzo wa kale: kha raundi ya u thoma ya ṱhoḓisiso ya Rosemarie Nagel ya 1995, matshudeni vho nanga 36.7 nga tshikati, nahone nomboro dze dza nangiwa nga vhunzhi dzo vha tsini na 33 na 22 [1].
Miṱaṱisano mihulu: vhavhali vha Financial Times vha 1,476 vho swika tshikati tsha 18.9 (nomboro ya mukundi yo vha 13), ngeno vhavhali vha Politiken vha 19,196 vho swika tshikati tsha 32.4 [2][3].
U kunga ha 33: kha mutambo wa New York Times wa 2015 we wa tambiwa nga vhavhali vha ṱoḓaho u vha 56,000, 33 yo vha nomboro ye ya nangiwa nga vhunzhi [5].
Mvelaphanḓa ya muhumbulo uyu: mu ekonomi John Maynard Keynes o fanyisa mimakete ya zwa masheleni na mutaṱisano wa vhundeme, hune wa kunda nga u nanga tshifhaṱuwo tshine vhaṅwe vha ḓo tshi nanga [6].

Mutambo u shuma hani

Nanga nomboro yo fhelelaho vhukati ha 0 na 100, ni i khwaṱhise.
Nomboro dzoṱhe dze vhathu vha dzi nanga kha heyi vhege dzi ḓo itwa tshikati musi raundi i tshi vala, nahone tshikongomelo ndi 2/3 ya tshikati tshenetsho.
Ane a vha tsini-tsini na nomboro uyo u a kunda. Arali vha tshi lingana, vha kovhana mukando. Nga Musumbuluwo, siaṱari ḽi sumbedza vhatambi vha vhege yo fhelaho, tshikati, tshikongomelo, nomboro ya mukundi na uri nomboro iṅwe na iṅwe yo nangiwa hani.

Nomboro nthihi ya u nanga nga muthu i a vhalwa kha raundi iṅwe na iṅwe. Ri vhalela nomboro nthihi ya u nanga kha browser iṅwe na iṅwe na kha ṱhumanyo iṅwe na iṅwe ya inthanethe, ngauralo vhathu vhane vha kovhana netiweke (tshikolo, ofisi, muṱa) vha vhalelwa luthihi nga vhege. Nomboro ya vhuvhili a i vhalelwi. Nga u ṱavhanya musi wo no nanga, siaṱari ḽi sumbedza hune nomboro yau ya vha hone kha mutevhe wa maga a u humbula na uri yo vha i tshi ḓo ita hani kha miṱaṱisano i ḓivheaho ya afho nṱha.

Zwine mutambo wa kala na he wa bva hone

Vha ekonomi vha vhidza uyu mutambo uri mutaṱisano wa u naka wa p, hune p = 2/3 kha uyu mutambo. Rosemarie Nagel o u ita muedzo wa laboratori wa 1995 u ḓivhiwaho vhukuma [1]. Zwe a wana: vhathu a vha humbuli u swika kha 0, nahone a vha nangi nga u tou sokou itea. Vhunzhi vha ima nga murahu ha maga maṅwe kana mavhili a uri "vha humbula uri ndi humbula".

Muhumbulo wa uri vhathu vha humbula maga a si manzhi nga ha vhaṅwe, wo vha mutheo wa mbonelo ya level-k na ya cognitive hierarchy ya u humbula nga ha maano [4][7]. Miṱaṱisano ya gurannḓa ye ya tevhela, iṅwe na iṅwe i na vhavhali vha zwigidi, yo sumbedza one maga eneo kha 33 na 22, khathihi na tshigwada tsha vhe vha nanga 0 kana 1 [2].

Zwine mutambo uyu wa nga ni vhudza na zwine wa sa nga ni vhudza

Tshigwada tshau tshi ṱalusa nomboro nthihi ye wa i nanga kha mutambo muthihi. A si tshikalo tsha vhuṱali, nahone u humbula nga maga manzhi a si khwine: mukundi ndi ane a bvumba guluwe ya vhathu zwavhuḓi, nahone guluwe kanzhi i ima nga murahu ha maga maṅwe kana mavhili. U nanga ha level-4 ndi u humbula nga vhuṱali, fhedzi kanzhi hu fhedza hu fhasi ha tshikongomelo.

Vhatambi vha afha ndi vhane vha dalela mutambo kha heyo vhege, a si tshigwada tsho dzudzanywaho tshine tsha dzula tsho fhelela, ngauralo tshikongomelo tshi a shanduka vhege nga vhege. Miṱaṱisano i ḓivheaho yo shumisa milayo yo fhambanaho nga zwiṱuku: Financial Times yo tendela nomboro dzo fhelelaho fhedzi, ngeno Politiken na Spektrum dzo tendela nomboro dza decimal [2][3].

Mbudziso dzine dza anzela u vhudziswa

Phindulo ya u humbulela 2/3 ya tshikati ndi ifhio?

Humbulela 2/3 ya Tshikati a i na phindulo yo tiwaho. Thyiori ya mitambo i ri 0, ngauri mutambi muṅwe na muṅwe u na tshiitisi tsha u tsa fhasi ha vhaṅwe vhoṱhe. Fhedzi vhathu vha vhukuma vha ima nga murahu ha maga maṅwe kana mavhili, ngauralo kha miṱaṱisano yo gandiswaho nomboro dza u kunda dzo vha vhukati ha 13 na 21.6 [2][3]. Nomboro ya khwine ndi 2/3 ya nomboro ine wa lavhelela uri vhaṅwe vha ḓo i nanga nga tshikati.

Ndi ngani 0 i sa kundi?

Zero i nga kunda fhedzi arali vhunzhi ha vhathu vho humbula u tsa u swika magumoni. Kha miṱaṱisano ya vhukuma, vhathu vhanzhi vha nanga tsini na 33 kana 22, nahone vhaṅwe vha nanga nomboro khulwane, zwine zwa kokodza tshikati tshi ya nṱha. Kha muṱaṱisano wa Financial Times, tshikati tsho vha 18.9 nahone tshikongomelo 12.6, zwi kule vhukuma na 0 [2].

Zwi amba mini uri "muhumbuli wa level 2"?

Muhumbuli wa level-2 u lavhelela uri vhaṅwe vha ḓo humbula ḽiga ḽithihi phanḓa (vha ḓo nanga tsini na 33), a dovha a ya phanḓa nga ḽiga ḽithihi: 2/3 ya 33 i lingana na 22. Kha mutambo wa Helibrain, level yau ndi ḽiga kha mutevhe (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) ḽine nomboro yau ya vha tsini-tsini naḽo [1].

Naa ndi nga tamba lunzhi u fhira luthihi?

Ee, fhedzi ndi nomboro yau ya u thoma ya vhege fhedzi ine ya vhalelwa kha raundi. Dza murahu dzi sumbedzwa kha mutevhe, fhedzi a dzi vhalelwi, ngauralo a hu na ane a nga shandula mvelelo nga u nanga lunzhi. Raundi ntswa i thoma nga Musumbuluwo muṅwe na muṅwe.

Naa mutambo wa Helibrain wa 2/3 ndi wa mahala zwa vhukuma?

Ee. Mutambo wa Helibrain wa 2/3 na mvelelo dza vhege dzoṱhe ndi zwa mahala: a hu ṱoḓei u ḓiṅwalisa, imeili kana malipo. Helibrain i wana tshelede kha app yayo, ine ya vha na pulane ya mahala na pulane dzi badelwaho; a ni ṱoḓi app uri ni tambe.

Vhona ndingo dzoṱhe dza muhumbulo dza mahala dza 43

Ni khou ṱoḓa u ita izwi ḓuvha ḽiṅwe na ḽiṅwe? App ya Helibrain (zwino i wanala nga Luisimane fhedzi) i na pulane ya mahala na dziṅwe pulane dzi badelwaho.

Bulani siaṱari iḽi: Humbulela 2/3 ya Tshikati. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/ve/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Zwiko

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Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Nḓila ye ra ita ngayo heḽi siaṱari: ḽo ṅwalwa nga tshigwada tsha Helibrain hu tshi shumiswa ṱhoḓisiso dzo bulwaho afho nṱha, nahone ḽa sedzwa nga Robert(Luisimane) (mugudiswa wa PhD kha biophysics) nga 11/4/2026. Ri ḽi vusuludza musi vhubvo ha mafhungo vhu tshi shanduka.

Humbulela 2/3 ya Tshikati