Guess 2/3 of Average

• Your level show how many steps ahead you think. Guess near 50 na level 0: you no think about the others. Near 33 na level 1: "people go guess around 50". Near 22 na level 2: "people go think one step ahead". Each step na 2/3 of the one before am [1].
• Wetin game theory talk na 0. If everybody think reach the end, every guess go reduce reach 0. Real players no dey do am, so 0 never win public contest [1][2].
• E no fit win: Guess wey pass 66.7 no fit win, because even if everybody guess 100, the target go be 66.7.
• This week winner go show when the round end (each round na one week, Monday reach Sunday, UTC). We no dey show the live average before then: e go spoil the game. Round need at least 30 players to get result.

1. Pick whole number from 0 reach 100 and lock am in.
2. Everybody guess for this week go join to get average when the round close, and target na 2/3 of that average.
3. The guess wey near pass go win. If na tie, dem share the win. On Monday, page go show last week players, average, target, winning guess and how people guess each number.

Na one guess per person dey count for each round. We count one guess for each browser and one for each internet connection, so people wey share network (school, office, family) count as one for the week. Second guess no count. Soon as you guess, page go show where your number dey for the reasoning ladder and how e for do for the famous contests above.

Economists dey call this game p-beauty contest, and here p = 2/3. Rosemarie Nagel make am famous lab experiment for 1995 [1]. Wetin she find be say: people no dey reason reach 0, and dem no dey guess anyhow too. Plenty people stop after one or two steps of "dem think say I think".

That idea, say people dey reason only some steps about others, become level-k and cognitive hierarchy models for strategic thinking [4][7]. The newspaper contests wey follow, each with thousands of readers, show the same steps for 33 and 22, plus some people wey choose 0 or 1 [2].

Your level describe one guess for one game. E no be measure of intelligence, and higher level no mean say e better: na who predict the crowd pass go win, and the crowd dey usually stop for one or two steps. Level-4 guess na clever reasoning wey usually end up below the target.

Na people wey visit that week dey play here, no be one fixed group, so target dey change from week to week. The famous contests use small different rules: Financial Times allow whole numbers only, while Politiken and Spektrum allow decimals [2][3].