Qagela u-2/3 wesilinganiso sabo bonke

Khetha inombolo. Ophumelelayo yilowo oseduze kakhulu no-2/3 wesilinganiso sawo wonke umuntu kuleli sonto. Kumahhala, akudingeki ubhalise.

Yithimba lakwa-HelibrainKubuyekezwe ngu-Robert(IsiNgisi), ofundela iziqu ze-PhD ku-biophysicsKushicilelwe Kubuyekezwe okokugcina ngo-

Indlela yokufunda umphumela wakho

  • Izinga lakho libonisa ukuthi ucabange izinyathelo ezingaki ngaphambili. Ukuqagela okusondele ku-50 kusezingeni 0: awuzange ucabange ngabanye. Okusondele ku-33 kusezingeni 1: "abantu bazoqagela cishe u-50". Okusondele ku-22 kusezingeni 2: "abantu bazocabanga isinyathelo esisodwa ngaphambili". Isinyathelo ngasinye singu-2/3 sesangaphambili [1].
  • Impendulo yethiyori yemidlalo ngu-0. Ukube wonke umuntu wayecabanga kuze kube sekugcineni, konke ukuqagela bekuzoncipha kufike ku-0. Abadlali bangempela abenzi lokho, ngakho u-0 awukaze uwine umncintiswano ovulelekile [1][2].
  • Akunakwenzeka ukunqoba: ukuqagela okungaphezu kuka-66.7 ngeke kunqobe, ngoba noma wonke umuntu eqagela u-100, umgomo uzoba ngu-66.7.
  • Ophumelele kuleli sonto uvela uma umjikelezo uphela (umjikelezo ngamunye uyisonto, kusukela ngoMsombuluko kuye ngeSonto, UTC). Asivezi isilinganiso esibukhoma ngaphambi kwalokho: lokho bekuzokonakalisa umdlalo. Umjikelezo udinga okungenani abadlali abangu-30 ukuze kube nomphumela.

Iyiphi inombolo engcono kakhulu ongayiqagela?

Ayikho inombolo eyodwa ehamba phambili: kuya ngokuthi bonke abanye baqagela ini. Emiqhudelwaneni emikhulu evulelekile, umgomo wawuba phakathi kuka-13 no-22 cishe. Abafundi be-Financial Times baba nesilinganiso esingu-18.9, ngakho umgomo waba ngu-12.6 [2]. Emncintiswaneni wephephandaba laseDenmark owawunabafundi abangu-19,196, isilinganiso saba ngu-32.4 kanti umgomo waba ngu-21.6 [3].

Igrafu yamabha: ukuqagela okumaphakathi nomgomo emiqhudelwaneni emine eshicilelwe. Ucwaningo lwaselabhorethri lwango-1995: isilinganiso 36.7, umgomo 24.5. Politiken 2005: isilinganiso 32.4, umgomo 21.6. Spektrum 1997: isilinganiso 22.1, umgomo 14.7. Financial Times 1997: isilinganiso 18.9, umgomo 12.6.
Umfanekiso 1. Ukuqagela okumaphakathi nomgomo ka-2/3 emiqhudelwaneni emine eshicilelwe. Idatha: Nagel 1995, umzuliswano wokuqala, abafundi abangu-67 [1]; Politiken 2005, abafundi abangu-19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, abafundi abangu-2,728, ne-Financial Times 1997, abafundi abangu-1,476 [2].

Amaqiniso asheshayo

  • Okukubonisayo: izinyathelo ezingaki ngaphambili ocabanga ngazo ngalokho abanye abantu abazokwenza. Izazi zezomnotho zibiza lokhu ngokucabanga kwezinga-k [1][4].
  • Ukuhlolwa kwakudala: emzuliswaneni wokuqala wocwaningo luka-Rosemarie Nagel lwango-1995, abafundi baqagela isilinganiso esingu-36.7, kanti ukuqagela okwakuvame kakhulu kwakusondele ku-33 naku-22 [1].
  • Imincintiswano emikhulu: abafundi be-Financial Times abangu-1,476 baba nesilinganiso esingu-18.9 (ukuqagela okwanqoba kwaba ngu-13), kanti abafundi be-Politiken abangu-19,196 baba nesilinganiso esingu-32.4 [2][3].
  • Ukudonsela ku-33: enguqulweni ye-New York Times yango-2015 eyayinabafundi abacishe babe ngu-56,000, u-33 kwaba ukuqagela okuthandwa kakhulu [5].
  • Lapho umqondo uvela khona: isazi sezomnotho uJohn Maynard Keynes saqhathanisa imakethe yamasheya nomncintiswano wobuhle lapho uwina khona ngokukhetha ubuso abanye abazobukhetha [6].

Indlela umdlalo osebenza ngayo

  1. Khetha inombolo ephelele kusuka ku-0 kuye ku-100 bese uyayiqinisekisa.
  2. Ukuqagela kwawo wonke umuntu kuleli sonto kuyalinganiswa uma umjikelezo uvala, bese umgomo uba ngu-2/3 waleso silinganiso.
  3. Oqagele okusondele kakhulu uyawina. Uma kulingana, abawinile babelana ngokunqoba. NgoMsombuluko, ikhasi libonisa abadlali beviki eledlule, isilinganiso, umgomo, ukuqagela okunqobile nokuthi inombolo ngayinye yaqagelwa kanjani.

Ukuqagela okukodwa komuntu kuyabalwa kumjikelezo ngamunye. Sibala ukuqagela okukodwa ngesiphequluli ngasinye nangoxhumano lwe-inthanethi ngalunye, ngakho abantu ababelana ngenethiwekhi (isikole, ihhovisi, umndeni) babalwa kanye ngesonto. Ukuqagela kwesibili akubalwa. Ngemva nje kokuqagela, ikhasi libonisa ukuthi inombolo yakho ikuphi esitebhisini sokucabanga nokuthi ngabe ibingenzani emiqhudelwaneni edumile engenhla.

Okulinganiswa yilo mdlalo, nokuthi uvelaphi

Izazi zezomnotho zibiza lo mdlalo ngokuthi umncintiswano wobuhle we-p, lapho u-p = 2/3 lapha. URosemarie Nagel wawenza waba ucwaningo lwaselabhorethri oludumile ngo-1995 [1]. Akuthola: abantu abacabangi kuze kube sekugcineni bafike ku-0, futhi abaqageli ngokungahleliwe. Iningi ligcina ngemva kwesinyathelo esisodwa noma ezimbili zokuthi "bacabanga ukuthi mina ngicabanga".

Lowo mqondo wokuthi abantu bacabanga inani elilinganiselwe lezinyathelo ngabanye waba yisisekelo samamodeli okucabanga kwamasu ezinga-k nawokulandelana kwengqondo [4][7]. Imincintiswano yamaphephandaba eyalandela, ngayinye inezinkulungwane zabafundi, yabonisa izinyathelo ezifanayo ku-33 naku-22, kanye neqembu elakhetha u-0 noma u-1 [2].

Lokho lo mdlalo ongakutshela nongakwazi ukukutshela

Izinga lakho lichaza ukuqagela okukodwa emdlalweni owodwa. Alilinganisi ukuhlakanipha, futhi izinga eliphakeme alingcono: ophumelelayo yilowo obikezela kahle kakhulu isixuku, kanti isixuku sivame ukuma esinyathelweni sokuqala noma sesibili. Ukuqagela kwezinga 4 kuwukucabanga okukhaliphile okuvame ukuphumela ngaphansi komgomo.

Abadlali balapha yilabo abavakashela kulelo sonto, akusona isampula esingaguquki, ngakho umgomo uyashintsha isonto nesonto. Imincintiswano edumile yayinemithetho ehluke kancane: i-Financial Times yayivumela izinombolo eziphelele kuphela, kanti i-Politiken ne-Spektrum zazivumela amadesimali [2][3].

Imibuzo evame ukubuzwa

Ithini impendulo yomdlalo wokuqagela u-2/3 wesilinganiso?

Umdlalo wokuqagela u-2/3 wesilinganiso awunayo impendulo engaguquki. Ithiyori yemidlalo ithi ngu-0, ngoba umdlali ngamunye unesizathu sokwehla ngaphansi kwabo bonke abanye. Kodwa abantu bangempela bayama ngemva kwesinyathelo esisodwa noma ezimbili, ngakho emiqhudelwaneni eshicilelwe inombolo eyanqoba yayiphakathi kuka-13 no-21.6 [2][3]. Ukuqagela okuhle kakhulu kungu-2/3 walokho olindele ukuthi abanye bazokuqagela ngokwesilinganiso.

Kungani u-0 enganqobi?

Uziro anganqoba kuphela uma cishe wonke umuntu ecabanga kuze kube sekugcineni. Emiqhudelwaneni yangempela, abantu abaningi baqagela cishe u-33 noma u-22, kanti abanye baqagela izinombolo ezinkulu, okunyusa isilinganiso. Emncintiswaneni we-Financial Times, isilinganiso saba ngu-18.9 kanti umgomo waba ngu-12.6, kukude kakhulu no-0 [2].

Kusho ukuthini ukuthi "umcabangi wezinga 2"?

Umcabangi wezinga 2 ulindele ukuthi abanye bacabange isinyathelo esisodwa ngaphambili (bazoqagela cishe u-33), bese naye uya phambili ngesinye isinyathelo: u-2/3 ka-33 ucishe ube ngu-22. Emdlalweni we-Helibrain, izinga lakho yisinyathelo esesitebhisini (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) esiseduze kakhulu nokuqagela kwakho [1].

Ngingadlala izikhathi ezingaphezu kwesisodwa?

Yebo, kodwa ukuqagela kwakho kokuqala kuphela kwesonto okubalwa emjikelezweni. Ukuqagela kwakamuva kuyaboniswa esitebhisini, kodwa akubalwa, ngakho akekho ongathonya umphumela ngokuqagela izikhathi eziningi. Umjikelezo omusha uqala njalo ngoMsombuluko.

Ingabe umdlalo we-2/3 we-Helibrain umahhala ngempela?

Yebo. Umdlalo we-2/3 we-Helibrain nayo yonke imiphumela yamasonto onke kumahhala: akukho kubhalisa, akukho imeyili, akukho kukhokha. I-Helibrain ithola imali ngohlelo lwayo lokusebenza, olunecebo lamahhala namacebo akhokhelwayo; awudingi lolo hlelo lokusebenza ukuze udlale.

Ukuhlolwa okuhlobene

Bona konke ukuhlolwa kobuchopho kwamahhala okungu-43

Ufuna ukusebenza kulokhu nsuku zonke? Uhlelo lokusebenza lwe-Helibrain (okwamanje lutholakala ngesiNgisi) lunohlelo lwamahhala kanye nezinhlelo ezikhokhelwayo.

Imithombo

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (numbers from the 1999 working paper: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Indlela esenze ngayo leli khasi: libhalwe yithimba lakwa-Helibrain kusetshenziswa izifundo ezibalwe ngenhla, futhi labuyekezwa u-Robert(IsiNgisi) (umfundi oqhubeka neziqu zobudokotela ku-biophysics) ngo-Novemba 4, 2026. Sibuyekeza lokhu lapho imithombo ishintsha.