Qikelela u-2/3 womndilili

Khetha inani. Ophumelelayo ngulowo usondele kakhulu ku-2/3 womndilili wamanani abo bonke kule veki. Kusimahla, akukho kubhalisa.

Ibhalwe liqela leHelibrainIhlolwe nguRobert(IsiNgesi), umfundi ofundela isidanga sePhD kwi-biophysicsIpapashwe ngomhla we-Ihlolwe okokugqibela ngomhla we-

Indlela yokufunda iziphumo zakho

  • Inqanaba lakho libonisa ukuba ucinge amanyathelo amangaphi ngaphambili. Uqikelelo olukufutshane no-50 lukwinqanaba 0: awukhange ucinge ngabanye. Olukufutshane no-33 lukwinqanaba 1: "abantu baza kuqikelela malunga no-50". Olukufutshane no-22 lukwinqanaba 2: "abantu baza kucinga inyathelo elinye ngaphambili". Inyathelo ngalinye lingu-2/3 welangaphambili [1].
  • Impendulo yethiyori yemidlalo ngu-0. Ukuba wonke umntu ebesebenzisa ingqiqo yakhe de ayokufika esiphelweni, lonke uqikelelo beluya kuhla luye ku-0. Abadlali bokwenene abakhe benze oku, ngoko u-0 akazange aphumelele kukhuphiswano lukawonke-wonke [1][2].
  • Ayinakuphumelela: uqikelelo olungaphezulu ko-66.7 alunakuphumelela, kuba nokuba wonke umntu ebengaqikelela u-100, injongo ibiya kuba ngu-66.7.
  • Ophumeleleyo wale veki uboniswa xa umjikelo uphela (umjikelo ngamnye yiveki, ukusuka ngoMvulo ukuya ngeCawa, UTC). Asize sibonise umndilili wangoku ngaphambi koko: oko kungonakalisa umdlalo. Kufuneka kubekho ubuncinane abadlali abayi-30 ukuze umjikelo ube nesiphumo.

Leliphi elona nani lilungileyo lokuliqikelela?

Alikho inani elinye elisoloko lilungile: kuxhomekeke koko kuqikelelwa ngabanye. Kukhuphiswano olukhulu lukawonke-wonke, injongo ibiphakathi malunga no-13 no-22. Abafundi be-Financial Times babe nomndilili oyi-18.9, ngoko injongo yaba ngu-12.6 [2]. Kukhuphiswano lwephephandaba laseDenmark olunabafundi abayi-19 196, umndilili waba ngu-32.4 yaye injongo yaba ngu-21.6 [3].

Igrafu yeentsika: umndilili woqikelelo nenjongo kukhuphiswano olune olwapapashwayo. Uphononongo lwaselabhoratri luka-1995: umndilili 36.7, injongo 24.5. Politiken 2005: umndilili 32.4, injongo 21.6. Spektrum 1997: umndilili 22.1, injongo 14.7. Financial Times 1997: umndilili 18.9, injongo 12.6.
Umfanekiso 1. Umndilili woqikelelo nenjongo engu-2/3 kukhuphiswano olune olwapapashwayo. Idatha: Nagel 1995, umjikelo wokuqala, abafundi abayi-67 [1]; Politiken 2005, abafundi abayi-19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, abafundi abayi-2,728, ne-Financial Times 1997, abafundi abayi-1,476 [2].

Iinkcukacha ezikhawulezayo

  • Into eboniswayo: amanyathelo amangaphi ngaphambili ocinga ngawo malunga noko baza kukwenza abanye abantu. Iingcali zezoqoqosho zibiza oku ngokucinga kwenqanaba-k [1][4].
  • Uvavanyo lwakudala: kumjikelo wokuqala wophando lukaRosemarie Nagel lwango-1995, abafundi baqikelela umndilili oyi-36.7, yaye uqikelelo oluxhaphake kakhulu lwalusondele ku-33 naku-22 [1].
  • Ukhuphiswano olukhulu: abafundi be-Financial Times abayi-1 476 baba nomndilili oyi-18.9 (uqikelelo oluphumeleleyo lwaluyi-13), kanti abafundi be-Politiken abayi-19 196 baba nomndilili oyi-32.4 [2][3].
  • Ukutsaleleka ku-33: kuhlobo lwe-New York Times lwango-2015 olunabafundi abamalunga ne-56,000, u-33 yayilelona qikelelo likhethwe ngabantu abaninzi [5].
  • Imvelaphi yolu luvo: ingcali yezoqoqosho uJohn Maynard Keynes yafanisa imarike yezabelo nokhuphiswano lobuhle, apho uphumelela ngokukhetha ubuso abaza kubukhetha abanye [6].

Indlela osebenza ngayo umdlalo

  1. Khetha inani elipheleleyo ukusuka ku-0 ukuya ku-100 uze ulitshixe.
  2. Uqikelelo lwabantu bonke kule veki luyadityaniswa lufumanise umndilili xa umjikelo uvala, lize injongo libe ngu-2/3 waloo mndilili.
  3. Owona uqikelelo lusondeleyo uyaphumelela. Xa kukho abalinganayo, babelana ngokuphumelela. NgoMvulo, iphepha libonisa abadlali beveki ephelileyo, umndilili, injongo, uqikelelo oluphumeleleyo nendlela eliqikelelwe ngayo inani ngalinye.

Kubalwa uqikelelo olunye lomntu ngamnye kumjikelo ngamnye. Sibala uqikelelo olunye ngesikhangeli se-intanethi nangonxibelelwano olunye lwe-intanethi, ngoko abantu abasebenzisa inethiwekhi enye (isikolo, iofisi, usapho) babalwa kube kanye ngeveki. Uqikelelo lwesibini alubalwa. Kanye emva kokuba uqikelele, iphepha libonisa indawo yenani lakho kwinqwanqwa lokucinga nendlela ebeliza kuqhuba ngayo kukhuphiswano oludumileyo olungasentla.

Oko kulinganiswa ngumdlalo, nemvelaphi yawo

Iingcali zezoqoqosho zibiza lo mdlalo ngokuba lukhuphiswano lobuhle lwe-p, apho u-p = 2/3 apha. URosemarie Nagel wawenza waba luvavanyo lwaselabhoratri oludumileyo ngo-1995 [1]. Into awayifumanisayo: abantu abaqhubi nokuqiqa de bafike ku-0, yaye abaqikeleli nje ngokungakhethiyo. Abaninzi bayema emva kwenyathelo elinye okanye amabini okucinga ukuba "bacinga ukuba mna ndicinga".

Olu luvo lokuba abantu bacinga inani elilinganiselweyo lamanyathelo malunga nabanye lwaba sisiseko semifuziselo yenqanaba-k neyoluhlu lokucinga ngobuchule [4][7]. Ukhuphiswano lwamaphephandaba olwalandelayo, olunamawaka abafundi ngamnye, lwabonisa kwa loo manyathelo aku-33 naku-22, kwakunye neqela elakhetha u-0 okanye u-1 [2].

Oko anokukuxelela nongakwaziyo ukukuxelela kona lo mdlalo

Inqanaba lakho lichaza uqikelelo olunye kumdlalo omnye. Asingomlinganiselo wobukrelekrele, yaye inqanaba eliphezulu alithethi ukuba ungcono: ophumelelayo ngulowo uqikelela kakuhle isihlwele, kwaye isihlwele sidla ngokuma emva kwenyathelo elinye okanye amabini. Uqikelelo lwenqanaba 4 lubonisa ukucinga ngobuchule, kodwa ludla ngokuphelela lungaphantsi kwenjongo.

Abadlali balapha ngabo batyelela umdlalo kuloo veki, ayisosampulu esisigxina, ngoko injongo iyatshintsha iveki neveki. Ukhuphiswano oludumileyo lwalusebenzisa imithetho eyahluke kancinane: i-Financial Times yayivumela amanani apheleleyo kuphela, kanti i-Politiken ne-Spektrum zazivumela amanani anedesimali [2][3].

Imibuzo edla ngokubuzwa

Ithini impendulo kumdlalo wokuqikelela u-2/3 womndilili?

Umdlalo wokuqikelela u-2/3 womndilili awunampendulo imiselweyo. Ithiyori yemidlalo ithi ngu-0, kuba umdlali ngamnye unesizathu sokukhetha inani elingaphantsi kwelabanye. Kodwa abantu bokwenene bayema emva kwenyathelo elinye okanye amabini, ngoko kukhuphiswano olwapapashwayo inani eliphumeleleyo lalisuka ku-13 ukuya ku-21.6 [2][3]. Olona qikelelo lulungileyo ngu-2/3 womndilili olindele ukuba abanye bawuqikelele.

Kutheni u-0 engaphumeleli?

U-0 ebeya kuphumelela kuphela ukuba phantse wonke umntu wayecinga de afike esiphelweni. Kukhuphiswano lokwenene, abantu abaninzi baqikelela malunga no-33 okanye u-22, yaye abanye baqikelela amanani aphezulu, nto leyo enyusa umndilili. Kukhuphiswano lwe-Financial Times, umndilili wawuyi-18.9 yaye injongo iyi-12.6, ikude kakhulu ku-0 [2].

Kuthetha ukuthini ukuba "ngumcingi wenqanaba 2"?

Umcingi wenqanaba 2 ulindele ukuba abanye abantu bacinge inyathelo elinye ngaphambili (baza kuqikelela malunga no-33), aze yena aye inyathelo elinye ngaphaya koko: u-2/3 ka-33 umalunga no-22. Kumdlalo we-Helibrain, inqanaba lakho linyathelo kwinqwanqwa (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) elikufutshane kakhulu noqikelelo lwakho [1].

Ndingadlala ngaphezu kwesihlandlo esinye?

Ewe, kodwa kubalwa kuphela uqikelelo lwakho lokuqala lweveki kumjikelo. Uqikelelo lwamva luboniswa kwinqwanqwa, kodwa alubalwa, ngoko akukho mntu unokutshintsha isiphumo ngokuqikelela amaxesha amaninzi. Umjikelo omtsha uqala rhoqo ngoMvulo.

Ngaba umdlalo we-Helibrain ka-2/3 usimahla ngenene?

Ewe. Umdlalo we-Helibrain ka-2/3 nazo zonke iziphumo zeveki zisimahla: akukho kubhalisa, akukho imeyile, akukho ntlawulo. I-Helibrain ifumana imali nge-app yayo, enesicwangciso sasimahla nezicwangciso ezihlawulelwayo; awuyidingi i-app ukuze udlale.

Iimvavanyo ezinxulumene noku

Bona zonke iimvavanyo zengqondo zasimahla eziyi-43

Ufuna ukusebenza koku yonke imihla? I-app yeHelibrain (okwangoku ifumaneka ngesiNgesi) inesicwangciso sasimahla kunye nezicwangciso ezihlawulelwayo.

Imithombo

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (numbers from the 1999 working paper: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Indlela esenze ngayo eli phepha: libhalwe liqela leHelibrain ngokusekelwe kwizifundo ezidweliswe ngasentla, laza lahlolwa nguRobert(IsiNgesi) (umfundi ofundela isidanga sePhD kwi-biophysics) ngomhla we-Novemba 4, 2026. Siyalihlaziya xa imithombo itshintsha.