Yi hasashen 2/3 na Matsakaici

Zaɓi lamba. Wanda ya fi kusa da 2/3 na matsakaicin lambobin kowa a wannan makon shi ne zai yi nasara. Kyauta ne, ba sai an yi rajista ba.

Daga ƙungiyar HelibrainRobert(Turanci), ɗan takarar digiri na uku a fannin kimiyyar lissafi na halittu, ya duba shiAn wallafa An sake dubawa

Yadda za ka fahimci sakamakonka

  • Matakinka yana nuna matakai nawa ka yi tunanin gaba. Hasashen kusa da 50 yana mataki na 0: ba a yi tunanin sauran mutane ba. Kusa da 33 yana mataki na 1: "mutane za su yi hasashe kusan 50". Kusa da 22 yana mataki na 2: "mutane za su yi tunanin mataki ɗaya gaba". Kowane mataki 2/3 ne na matakin da ya gabace shi [1].
  • Amsar ka'idar wasanni ita ce 0. Da kowa ya yi tunani har ƙarshe, duk hasashe zai ragu zuwa 0. 'Yan wasa na gaske ba sa yin haka, don haka 0 bai taɓa cin gasa ta jama'a ba [1][2].
  • Ba zai iya yin nasara ba: hasashen da ya haura 66.7 ba zai iya yin nasara ba, domin ko da kowa ya hasashe 100, abin da ake nema zai zama 66.7.
  • Wanda ya yi nasara a wannan makon zai bayyana idan zagaye ya ƙare (kowane zagaye mako ɗaya ne, daga Litinin zuwa Lahadi, UTC). Ba ma nuna matsakaicin sakamakon da ake samu a lokacin wasa: hakan zai ɓata wasan. Ana buƙatar aƙalla 'yan wasa 30 kafin a samu sakamakon zagaye.

Wace lamba ce ta fi dacewa a yi hasashe?

Babu lamba guda ɗaya da ta fi dacewa: ya danganta da hasashen sauran mutane. A manyan gasannin jama'a, abin da ake nema ya kasance tsakanin kusan 13 da 22. Matsakaicin hasashen masu karanta Financial Times ya kasance 18.9, saboda haka abin da ake nema ya kasance 12.6 [2]. A gasar wata jaridar Denmark da masu karatu 19,196, matsakaicin ya kasance 32.4, abin da ake nema kuma 21.6 [3].

Jadawalin sanduna: matsakaicin hasashe da abin da ake nema a gasanni huɗu da aka wallafa. Gwajin dakin bincike na 1995: matsakaici 36.7, abin nema 24.5. Politiken 2005: matsakaici 32.4, abin nema 21.6. Spektrum 1997: matsakaici 22.1, abin nema 14.7. Financial Times 1997: matsakaici 18.9, abin nema 12.6.
Hoto na 1. Matsakaicin hasashe da abin da ake nema na 2/3 a gasanni huɗu da aka wallafa. Bayanai: Nagel 1995, zagaye na farko, ɗalibai 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, masu karatu 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, masu karatu 2,728, da Financial Times 1997, masu karatu 1,476 [2].

Taƙaitattun bayanai

  • Abin da yake nunawa: matakai nawa na tunani ka yi game da abin da wasu za su yi. Masana tattalin arziki suna kiran wannan tunanin matakin-k [1][4].
  • Shahararren gwaji: a zagaye na farko na binciken Rosemarie Nagel na 1995, matsakaicin hasashen ɗalibai shi ne 36.7, kuma mafi yawan hasashe sun kasance kusa da 33 da 22 [1].
  • Manyan gasa: matsakaicin hasashen masu karanta Financial Times 1,476 shi ne 18.9 (hasashen da ya yi nasara kuwa shi ne 13), sannan matsakaicin na masu karanta Politiken 19,196 shi ne 32.4 [2][3].
  • Jan hankalin 33: a wani nau'in wasan da New York Times ta wallafa a 2015 tare da kusan masu karatu 56,000, 33 ne hasashen da aka fi yi [5].
  • Asalin ra'ayin: masanin tattalin arziki John Maynard Keynes ya kwatanta kasuwar hannayen jari da gasar kyawun fuska, inda za ka yi nasara ta zaɓar fuskar da kake tsammanin wasu za su zaɓa [6].

Yadda wasan yake gudana

  1. Zaɓi cikakkiyar lamba daga 0 zuwa 100, sannan ka kulle ta.
  2. Za a sami matsakaicin hasashen kowa na wannan makon idan zagaye ya ƙare, abin da ake nema kuma shi ne 2/3 na wannan matsakaicin.
  3. Hasashen da ya fi kusa shi ne zai yi nasara. Idan an yi kunnen doki, za a raba nasarar. A ranar Litinin, shafin zai nuna 'yan wasan makon da ya gabata, matsakaici, abin nema, hasashen da ya yi nasara da kuma yadda aka yi hasashen kowace lamba.

Hasashe ɗaya kacal na mutum ake ƙirga a kowane zagaye. Muna ƙirga hasashe ɗaya a kowane burauza da kuma kowace hanyar haɗin intanet, don haka mutanen da ke amfani da hanyar sadarwa ɗaya (makaranta, ofis ko iyali) za a ƙirga su sau ɗaya a mako. Ba a ƙirga hasashe na biyu. Nan da nan bayan ka yi hasashe, shafin zai nuna inda lambarka take a matakan tunani da kuma yadda za ta yi a gasannin da aka ambata a sama.

Abin da wasan yake aunawa da asalin ra'ayinsa

Masana tattalin arziki suna kiran wannan wasan gasar kyawun p, inda p = 2/3 a nan. Rosemarie Nagel ce ta sa ya shahara a matsayin gwajin dakin bincike a 1995 [1]. Abin da ta gano shi ne: mutane ba sa tunani har zuwa 0, kuma ba sa yin hasashe a bazata kawai. Yawancinsu suna tsayawa bayan mataki ɗaya ko biyu na tunanin "suna tunanin abin da nake tunani".

Wannan ra'ayin cewa mutane suna yin iyakantattun matakai na tunani game da wasu ya zama tushen tsarin matakin-k da tsarin matakan fahimta na tunanin dabaru [4][7]. Gasannin jaridu da suka biyo baya, kowacce da dubban masu karatu, sun nuna matakai iri ɗaya a 33 da 22, tare da wani rukuni da ya zaɓi 0 ko 1 [2].

Abin da wannan wasan zai iya da wanda ba zai iya gaya maka ba

Matakinka yana bayyana hasashe guda ɗaya a wasa guda. Ba ma'aunin hankali ba ne, kuma mataki mafi zurfi ba ya nufin ya fi kyau: wanda ya yi nasara shi ne ya fi hasashen taron jama'a daidai, kuma taron yakan tsaya bayan mataki ɗaya ko biyu. Hasashen mataki na 4 tunani ne mai zurfi, amma yawanci yakan kasance ƙasa da abin da ake nema.

'Yan wasan nan su ne duk wanda ya ziyarci shafin a wannan makon, ba wani tsayayyen rukuni ba, don haka abin da ake nema yana canzawa daga mako zuwa mako. Dokokin shahararrun gasannin sun ɗan bambanta: Financial Times ta amince da cikakkun lambobi kawai, Politiken da Spektrum kuma sun amince da lambobin da ke da kaso [2][3].

Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi

Menene amsar wasan yi hasashen 2/3 na matsakaici?

Wasan yi hasashen 2/3 na matsakaici ba shi da amsa tsayayyiya. Ka'idar wasanni ta ce 0, domin kowane ɗan wasa yana da dalilin yin hasashen ƙasa da na kowa. Amma mutane na gaske suna tsayawa bayan mataki ɗaya ko biyu, don haka a gasannin da aka wallafa, lambar da ta yi nasara ta kasance tsakanin 13 da 21.6 [2][3]. Mafi kyawun hasashe shi ne 2/3 na abin da kake tsammanin sauran mutane za su yi hasashe a matsakaici.

Me ya sa 0 ba ya yin nasara?

0 zai yi nasara ne kawai idan kusan kowa ya yi tunani har zuwa ƙarshe. A gasannin gaske, mutane da yawa suna hasashen kusan 33 ko 22, wasu kuma su yi hasashen manyan lambobi, wanda ke ɗaga matsakaicin. A gasar Financial Times, matsakaicin ya kasance 18.9, abin da ake nema kuma 12.6, nesa da 0 [2].

Mene ne ma'anar "mai tunanin mataki na 2"?

Mai tunanin mataki na 2 yana sa ran wasu za su yi tunanin mataki ɗaya gaba (za su yi hasashen kusan 33), sai shi kuma ya ƙara mataki ɗaya: 2/3 na 33 kusan 22 ne. A wasan Helibrain, matakinka shi ne matakin da hasashenka ya fi kusa da shi a jerin (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) [1].

Zan iya yin wasa fiye da sau ɗaya?

Eh, amma hasashenka na farko ne kawai na kowane mako ake ƙirga a zagayen. Za a nuna hasashe na baya a jerin matakan, amma ba za a ƙirga su ba, don haka babu wanda zai iya karkatar da sakamakon ta hanyar yin hasashe sau da yawa. Sabon zagaye yana farawa kowace Litinin.

Wasan 2/3 na Helibrain da gaske kyauta ne?

Eh. Wasan 2/3 na Helibrain da kowane sakamakon mako-mako kyauta ne: ba sai an yi rajista ba, babu imel, babu biyan kuɗi. Helibrain na samun kuɗi daga manhajarsa, wadda ke da tsarin kyauta da kuma tsarin biyan kuɗi; ba sai ka yi amfani da manhajar ba don yin wasa.

Gwaje-gwaje masu alaƙa

Duba dukkan 43 gwaje-gwajen ƙwaƙwalwa kyauta

Kana son yin wannan kowace rana? Manhajar Helibrain (cikin Turanci a yanzu) tana da tsarin kyauta da tsare-tsaren biyan kuɗi.

Majiyoyi

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (lambobi daga takardar aiki ta 1999: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Yadda muka ƙirƙiri wannan shafi: ƙungiyar Helibrain ce ta rubuta shi daga binciken da aka jera a sama, kuma Robert(Turanci) (ɗan takarar digiri na uku a fannin kimiyyar lissafi na halittu) ya duba shi a ranar 4 Nuwamba, 2026. Muna sabunta shi idan majiyoyin sun canja.