Fungidzira 2/3 yeAvhareji

Sarudza nhamba. Anokunda ndiye anosarudza iri pedyo ne2/3 yeavhareji yenhamba dzasarudzwa nemunhu wese svondo rino. Ndeyemahara, uye hapana kunyoresa.

Nechikwata cheHelibrainYakaongororwa naRobert(Chirungu), ari kuita PhD yezvebiophysicsYakabudiswa Yakapedzisira kuongororwa

Kuverenga zvabuda zvako

  • Danho rako rinoratidza kuti wakafunga matanho mangani mberi. Kufungidzira kuri pedyo ne50 idanho 0: hauna kufunga nezvevamwe. Pedyo ne33 idanho 1: "vanhu vachafungidzira pedyo ne50". Pedyo ne22 idanho 2: "vanhu vachafunga danho rimwe mberi". Danho rimwe nerimwe i2/3 redanho rapfuura [1].
  • Mhinduro yedzidziso yemitambo ndi0. Dai munhu wese akafunga kusvika kumagumo, fungidziro dzese dzaizodzikira kusvika pa0. Vatambi chaivo havaiti izvi, saka 0 haisati yambokunda mumakwikwi eruzhinji [1][2].
  • Haikwanisi kukunda: fungidziro iri pamusoro pe66.7 haigoni kukunda, nekuti kunyange dai munhu wese akafungidzira 100, chinangwa chaizova 66.7.
  • Akakunda svondo rino anoonekwa kana nguva yemutambo yapera (mutambo wega wega ivhiki, kubva Muvhuro kusvika Svondo, UTC). Hatiratidzi avhareji ichiri kuverengwa: izvi zvingakanganisa mutambo. Mutambo unoda vatambi vanenge 30 kuti uve nemhinduro.

Ndeipi nhamba yakanakisisa yekufungidzira?

Hapana nhamba imwe chete yakanakisisa: zvinoenderana nezvinofungidzirwa nevamwe. Mumakwikwi makuru eruzhinji, chinangwa chaiva pakati pe13 ne22. Avhareji yevaverengi veFinancial Times yaiva 18.9, saka chinangwa chaiva 12.6 [2]. Mumakwikwi epepanhau reDenmark ane vaverengi 19,196, avhareji yaiva 32.4 uye chinangwa chaiva 21.6 [3].

Girafu yemazariro: avhareji yefungidziro nechinangwa mumakwikwi mana akabudiswa. Chidzidzo cherabhoritari 1995: avhareji 36.7, chinangwa 24.5. Politiken 2005: avhareji 32.4, chinangwa 21.6. Spektrum 1997: avhareji 22.1, chinangwa 14.7. Financial Times 1997: avhareji 18.9, chinangwa 12.6.
Mufananidzo 1. Avhareji yefungidziro nechinangwa che2/3 mumakwikwi mana akabudiswa. Mashoko akatorwa kuna: Nagel 1995, mutambo wekutanga, vadzidzi 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, vaverengi 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, vaverengi 2,728, uye Financial Times 1997, vaverengi 1,476 [2].

Mashoko anokurumidza

  • Zvinoratidzwa: matanho mangani mberi kwaunofunga pamusoro pezvichaitwa nevamwe. Nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinoti kufunga kwedanho-k [1][4].
  • Chiyedzo chekare: mumutambo wekutanga wechidzidzo chaRosemarie Nagel cha1995, vadzidzi vakafungidzira avhareji ye36.7, uye fungidziro dzainyanya kusarudzwa dzaiva pedyo ne33 ne22 [1].
  • Makwikwi makuru: vaverengi veFinancial Times 1,476 vakafungidzira avhareji ye18.9 (fungidziro yakakunda yaiva 13), uye vaverengi vePolitiken 19,196 vakafungidzira avhareji ye32.4 [2][3].
  • Kukwezva kwe33: mushanduro yeNew York Times ya2015 yaiva nevaverengi vanenge 56,000, 33 ndiyo yakanyanya kufungidzirwa [5].
  • Kwakatangira pfungwa iyi: nyanzvi yezvehupfumi John Maynard Keynes yakaenzanisa musika wemasheya nemakwikwi erunako umo unokunda nokusarudza chiso chichasarudzwa nevamwe [6].

Mashandiro anoita mutambo

  1. Sarudza nhamba yakazara kubva pa0 kusvika pa100 woiisa.
  2. Fungidziro dzemunhu wese svondo rino dzinoverengerwa kuti dziwane avhareji kana mutambo wapera, uye chinangwa i2/3 yeavhareji iyoyo.
  3. Anofungidzira ari pedyo ndiye anokunda. Kana paine vakafungidzira zvakafanana, vanogovana kukunda. Musi weMuvhuro, peji rinoratidza vatambi vesvondo rapfuura, avhareji, chinangwa, fungidziro yakakunda uye kuti nhamba imwe neimwe yakafungidzirwa kangani.

Fungidziro imwe chete pamunhu ndiyo inoverengwa mumutambo wega wega. Tinoverenga fungidziro imwe chete pabrowser uye painternet imwe chete, saka vanhu vanogovana network (chikoro, hofisi kana mhuri) vanoverengerwa kamwe chete pavhiki. Fungidziro yechipiri haiverengwi. Kana wangofungidzira, peji rinoratidza nzvimbo yenhamba yako pamanera ekufunga uye kuti ingadai yakaita sei mumakwikwi ane mukurumbira ataurwa pamusoro.

Zvinoyera mutambo uyu uye kwaunobva

Nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinoti mutambo uyu makwikwi erunako ep, apo pano p = 2/3. Rosemarie Nagel akaita kuti uve chiyedzo cherabhoritari chakakurumbira muna 1995 [1]. Zvaakawana ndezvekuti: vanhu havafungi kusvika kumagumo pa0, asiwo havangofungidziri zvisina kurongeka. Vazhinji vanomira mushure medanho rimwe kana maviri ekuti "vanofunga kuti ini ndinofunga".

Pfungwa iyi yokuti vanhu vanofunga nhanho shoma chete pamusoro pevamwe yakazova mhando dzekufunga kwemaitiro dzinonzi level-k necognitive hierarchy [4][7]. Makwikwi emapepanhau akazotevera, rimwe nerimwe riine zviuru zvevaverengi, akaratidza matanho mamwe chete pa33 ne22, pamwe neboka rakasarudza 0 kana 1 [2].

Zvaunogona uye zvausingagoni kudzidza kubva pamutambo uyu

Danho rako rinotsanangura fungidziro imwe chete mumutambo mumwe chete. Harisi chiyero chehungwaru, uye danho rakakwirira harisi nani: anokunda ndiye anonyatsofanotaura zvichasarudzwa nevazhinji, uye vazhinji vanowanzomira padanho rimwe kana maviri. Fungidziro yedanho 4 inoratidza kufunga kwakanaka asi inowanzoguma iri pasi pechinangwa.

Vatambi vari pano ndivo vanoshanyira peji svondo iroro, havasi boka rimwe chete rinoramba riripo, saka chinangwa chinoshanduka vhiki nevhiki. Makwikwi ane mukurumbira aishandisa mitemo yakati siyanei: Financial Times yaibvumira nhamba dzakazara chete, asi Politiken neSpektrum zvaibvumira zvikamu zvenhamba [2][3].

Mibvunzo inowanzobvunzwa

Mhinduro yekufungidzira 2/3 yeavhareji ndeipi?

Fungidzira 2/3 yeavhareji haina mhinduro yakatarwa. Dzidziso yemitambo inoti 0, nokuti mutambi wese ane chikonzero chokufungidzira nhamba iri pasi peyevamwe. Asi vanhu chaivo vanomira mushure medanho rimwe kana maviri, saka mumakwikwi akabudiswa nhamba yakakunda yaiva pakati pe13 ne21.6 [2][3]. Fungidziro yakanakisisa i2/3 yezvaunotarisira kuti vamwe vachafungidzira paavhareji.

Sei 0 isingakundi?

Zero yaizokunda chete dai vanenge vanhu vese vakafunga kusvika kumagumo. Mumakwikwi chaiwo, vanhu vazhinji vanofungidzira pedyo ne33 kana 22, uye vamwe vanosarudza nhamba dzakakwirira, izvo zvinokwidza avhareji. Mumakwikwi eFinancial Times, avhareji yaiva 18.9 uye chinangwa chaiva 12.6, zviri kure na0 [2].

Zvinorevei kuti "munhu anofunga padanho 2"?

Munhu anofunga padanho 2 anotarisira kuti vamwe vachafunga danho rimwe mberi (vachafungidzira pedyo ne33), obva aenda rimwe danho mberi: 2/3 ye33 ingangoita 22. Mumutambo weHelibrain, danho rako ndiro danho pamanera (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) riri pedyo zvikuru nefungidziro yako [1].

Ndingatamba kanopfuura kamwe here?

Hongu, asi fungidziro yako yekutanga chete pavhiki ndiyo inoverengwa mumutambo. Dzimwe fungidziro dzinozoonekwa pamanera, asi hadziverengwi, saka hapana anogona kushandura zvabuda nokufungidzira kakawanda. Mutambo mutsva unotanga Muvhuro wega wega.

Mutambo weHelibrain we2/3 ndewemahara zvechokwadi here?

Hongu. Mutambo weHelibrain we2/3 nezvabuda zvose zvevhiki nevhiki ndezvemahara: hapana kunyoresa, email kana kubhadhara. Helibrain inowana mari kubva kuapp yayo, ine chirongwa chemahara nezvirongwa zvinobhadharwa; haudi app yacho kuti utambe.

Miedzo ine chekuita neiyi

Ona miedzo yose 43 yemahara yeuropi

Unoda kudzidzira izvi zuva nezuva here? App yeHelibrain (parizvino iri muChirungu) ine chirongwa chemahara nezvirongwa zvinobhadharwa.

Mabviro

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (nhamba dzakatorwa mugwaro rebasa ra1999: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Magadzirirwo atakaita peji rino: rakanyorwa nechikwata cheHelibrain zvichibva pazvidzidzo zviri pamusoro, uye rakaongororwa naRobert(Chirungu) (ari kuita PhD yezvebiophysics) musi wa2026 Mbudzi 4. Tinorivandudza kana manyuko akachinja.