Gereranya 2/3 by’impuzandengo

Hitamo umubare. Uwegereye 2/3 by’impuzandengo y’uyu munsi y’imibare ya bose ni we utsinda. Ni ubuntu, nta kwiyandikisha.

Byanditswe n'itsinda rya HelibrainByasuzumwe na Robert(Icyongereza), umukandida wa PhD mu bijyanye na fiziki y'ibinyabuzimaByasohotse ku wa Byasuzumwe bwa nyuma ku wa

Uko wasoma ibisubizo byawe

  • Urwego rwawe rwerekana intambwe watekereje imbere. Igitekerezo kiri hafi ya 50 ni urwego rwa 0: utatekereje ku bandi. Igitekerezo kiri hafi ya 33 ni urwego rwa 1: "abantu bazagereranya hafi ya 50". Icyo kiri hafi ya 22 ni urwego rwa 2: "abantu bazatekereza intambwe imwe imbere". Buri ntambwe iba 2/3 by’iyibanjirije [1].
  • Igisubizo cy’imikino y’ingamba ni 0. Iyo buri wese aza gukomeza gutekereza kugeza ku iherezo, imibare yose yari kugenda igabanuka ikagera kuri 0. Abakinnyi nyakuri ntibabikora, bityo 0 ntiyigeze itsinda mu marushanwa rusange [1][2].
  • Ntishobora gutsinda: igitekerezo kiri hejuru ya 66,7 ntigishobora gutsinda, kuko n’iyo buri wese yagereranya 100, intego yaba 66,7.
  • Utsinze muri iki cyumweru agaragara igihe icyiciro kirangiye (buri cyiciro kimara icyumweru, kuva ku wa Mbere kugeza ku Cyumweru, UTC). Ntidutangaza impuzandengo iriho ako kanya mbere y’icyo gihe: byangiza umukino. Kugira ngo icyiciro kigire igisubizo, kigomba kuba gifite nibura abakinnyi 30.

Ni uwuhe mubare mwiza wo kugereranya?

Nta mubare umwe uba mwiza buri gihe: biterwa n’imibare abandi bose bagereranya. Mu marushanwa manini rusange, intego yagiye iba hagati ya 13 na 22. Abasomyi ba Financial Times bagereranyije 18,9, bityo intego iba 12,6 [2]. Mu marushanwa yo mu kinyamakuru cyo muri Danemark, yari arimo abasomyi 19.196, impuzandengo yari 32,4 naho intego iba 21,6 [3].

Igishushanyo cy’inkingi: impuzandengo y’imibare n’intego mu marushanwa 4 yasohotse. Ubushakashatsi muri laboratwari 1995: impuzandengo 36.7, intego 24.5. Politiken 2005: impuzandengo 32.4, intego 21.6. Spektrum 1997: impuzandengo 22.1, intego 14.7. Financial Times 1997: impuzandengo 18.9, intego 12.6.
Igishushanyo 1. Impuzandengo y’imibare yagereranijwe n’intego ya 2/3 mu marushanwa 4 yasohotse. Amakuru: Nagel 1995, icyiciro cya mbere, abanyeshuri 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, abasomyi 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, abasomyi 2,728, na Financial Times 1997, abasomyi 1,476 [2].

Amakuru y’ingenzi

  • Ibyo bigaragaza: intambwe utekereza imbere ku byo abandi bantu bazakora. Abahanga mu bukungu babyita gutekereza ku rwego-k [1][4].
  • Ubushakashatsi bwa kera: mu cyiciro cya mbere cy’ubushakashatsi bwa Rosemarie Nagel bwo mu 1995, abanyeshuri bagereranije 36,7 ugereranyije, kandi imibare yakunze kugarukwaho yari hafi ya 33 na 22 [1].
  • Amarushanwa manini: abasomyi 1.476 ba Financial Times bagereranije 18,9 (umubare watsinze wari 13), naho abasomyi 19.196 ba Politiken bagereranya 32,4 [2][3].
  • Kureshya kwa 33: mu mukino uhwanye n’uyu washyizwe mu kinyamakuru New York Times mu 2015, wari urimo abasomyi bagera ku 56,000, 33 ni wo mubare watoranyijwe cyane [5].
  • Aho iki gitekerezo cyaturutse: umuhanga mu bukungu John Maynard Keynes yagereranyije isoko ry’imigabane n’amarushanwa yo guhitamo ubwiza, aho utsinda uhisemo isura abandi bazahitamo [6].

Uko umukino ukinwa

  1. Hitamo umubare wuzuye uri hagati ya 0 na 100, maze uwemeze.
  2. Imibare y’uyu munsi ya bose irateranywa ikabarirwa impuzandengo igihe icyiciro kirangiye, maze intego ikaba 2/3 by’iyo mpuzandengo.
  3. Uwegereye intego ni we utsinda. Abahuje amanota bagabana intsinzi. Ku wa Mbere, urupapuro rwerekana abakinnyi b’icyumweru gishize, impuzandengo, intego, umubare watsinze n’uko buri mubare watoranyijwe.

Muri buri cyiciro habarwa igitekerezo kimwe cya buri muntu. Tubara igitekerezo kimwe kuri buri mushakisha wa interineti n’ihuriro rimwe rya interineti, bityo abantu basangiye urusobe (ishuri, ibiro, umuryango) bahagararirwa rimwe mu cyumweru. Igitekerezo cya kabiri ntikibarwa. Ukimara gutanga igitekerezo, urupapuro rwerekana intambwe umubare wawe uriho mu ruhererekane rw’imitekerereze n’uko wari kwitwara mu marushanwa azwi yavuzwe haruguru.

Ibyo umukino upima n’aho wakomotse

Abahanga mu bukungu uyu mukino bawita amarushanwa yo guhitamo ubwiza hakurikijwe p, aho p = 2/3 muri uyu mukino. Rosemarie Nagel yawumenyekanishije nk’ubushakashatsi bukorerwa muri laboratwari mu 1995 [1]. Icyo yabonye: abantu ntibatekereza kugeza ku iherezo ngo bagere kuri 0, ariko kandi ntibagereranya imibare mu kajagari. Benshi bahagarara nyuma y’intambwe imwe cyangwa ebyiri zo gutekereza bati "bo batekereza ko jye ntekereza ko...".

Iki gitekerezo cy’uko abantu batekereza intambwe nke ku bandi, cyabyaye uburyo bwo gusobanura imitekerereze y’ingamba bwitwa urwego-k n’uburyo bw’urwego rw’imitekerereze [4][7]. Amarushanwa yo mu binyamakuru yakurikiyeho, buri rimwe rikitabirwa n’abasomyi ibihumbi, yagaragaje intambwe nk’izo kuri 33 na 22, hamwe n’itsinda ryahisemo 0 cyangwa 1 [2].

Ibyo uyu mukino ushobora n’ibyo udashobora kukubwira

Urwego rwawe rugaragaza igitekerezo kimwe mu mukino umwe. Ntirupima ubwenge, kandi urwego rurerure si rwo rwiza kurushaho: utsinda ni uhanura neza icyo abantu benshi bazakora, kandi abo bantu benshi bahagarara nyuma y’intambwe imwe cyangwa ebyiri. Igitekerezo cyo ku rwego rwa 4 kiba gishingiye ku mitekerereze ihambaye, ariko akenshi kikarangira kiri munsi y’intego.

Abakinnyi b’uyu mukino ni abasura urubuga muri icyo cyumweru, si itsinda rihoraho ryatoranyijwe, bityo intego igahinduka buri cyumweru. Amarushanwa azwi yakoresheje amategeko atandukanye ho gato: Financial Times yemeye imibare yuzuye gusa, naho Politiken na Spektrum byemera n’imibare irimo ibice [2][3].

Ibibazo bikunze kubazwa

Igisubizo cyo kugereranya 2/3 by’impuzandengo ni ikihe?

Gereranya 2/3 by’impuzandengo nta gisubizo gihoraho gifite. Imitekerereze y’imikino y’ingamba ivuga ko ari 0, kuko buri mukinnyi aba afite impamvu yo kujya munsi y’abandi bose. Ariko abantu nyakuri bahagarara nyuma y’intambwe imwe cyangwa ebyiri, bityo mu marushanwa yasohotse umubare watsinze wabaye hagati ya 13 na 21.6 [2][3]. Igitekerezo cyiza kurushaho ni 2/3 by’umubare uteganya ko abandi bazagereranya ugereranyije.

Kuki 0 idatsinda?

Zeru yatsinda gusa iyo abantu hafi ya bose baza gutekereza kugeza ku iherezo. Mu marushanwa nyakuri, benshi bagereranya hafi ya 33 cyangwa 22, abandi bagahitamo imibare minini, bigatuma impuzandengo izamuka. Mu marushanwa ya Financial Times, impuzandengo yari 18,9 naho intego ikaba 12,6, kure cyane ya 0 [2].

"Utekereza ku rwego rwa 2" bisobanura iki?

Utekereza ku rwego rwa 2 ateganya ko abandi bazatekereza intambwe imwe imbere (bakagereranya hafi ya 33), maze na we agatera indi ntambwe: 2/3 bya 33 ni hafi ya 22. Mu mukino wa Helibrain, urwego rwawe ni intambwe yo mu ruhererekane (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) zegeranye n’umubare wahisemo [1].

Ese nshobora gukina inshuro zirenze imwe?

Yego, ariko igitekerezo cyawe cya mbere gusa ni cyo kibarwa muri icyo cyiciro cy’icyumweru. Ibitekerezo utanze nyuma bigaragara mu ruhererekane, ariko ntibibarwa, bityo nta muntu ushobora guhindura igisubizo atanga ibitekerezo byinshi. Icyiciro gishya gitangira buri wa Mbere.

Ese umukino wa Helibrain wa 2/3 ni ubuntu koko?

Yego. Umukino wa Helibrain wa 2/3 n’ibisubizo byose by’ibyumweru ni ubuntu: nta kwiyandikisha, nta imeri, nta kwishyura. Helibrain yinjiza amafaranga muri porogaramu yayo, ifite gahunda y’ubuntu n’izishyurwa; ntukeneye porogaramu kugira ngo ukine.

Ibindi bizamini bifitanye isano

Reba ibizamini byose 43 by'ubwonko by'ubuntu

Wifuza kubyitoza buri munsi? Porogaramu ya Helibrain (ubu iraboneka mu Cyongereza gusa) ifite gahunda y'ubuntu n'izindi zishyurwa.

Aho amakuru yavuye

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (imibare yo mu nyandiko y’ubushakashatsi yo mu 1999: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Uko twateguye uru rupapuro: rwanditswe n'itsinda rya Helibrain rishingiye ku bushakashatsi bwavuzwe haruguru, rusuzumwa na Robert(Icyongereza) (umukandida wa PhD mu bijyanye na fiziki y'ibinyabuzima) ku wa 2026 Ugushyingo 4. Turuvugurura iyo amasoko y'amakuru ahindutse.