Qiyaas 2/3 celceliska

Dooro tiro. Qofka guulaysta waa kan ugu dhow 2/3 celceliska qof walba ee toddobaadkan. Bilaash, isdiiwaangelin la'aan.

Waxaa qoray kooxda HelibrainWaxaa dib u eegay Robert(Ingiriisi), oo ah musharraxa PhD ee biofiisigiskaWaxaa la daabacay Dib u eegis ugu dambaysa

Sida loo akhriyo natiijadaada

  • Heerkaagu wuxuu muujinayaa inta tallaabo ee aad ka sii fikiraysay. Qiyaas ku dhow 50 waa heerka 0: kama aadan fikirin dadka kale. Ku dhowaad 33 waa heerka 1: "dadku waxay qiyaasi doonaan ku dhowaad 50". Ku dhowaad 22 waa heerka 2: "dadku tallaabo ayay hore u sii fikirayaan". Tallaabo kasta waa 2/3 tii ka horraysay [1].
  • Jawaabta aragtida ciyaaruhu waa 0. Haddii qof kastaa ilaa dhammaadka u sababeeyo, qiyaas kasta waxay ku soo ururaysaa 0. Ciyaartoyda dhabta ahi waligood sidaas ma sameeyaan, sidaas darteed 0 weligeed kuma guulaysan tartan dadweyne [1][2].
  • Guul ma keeni karto: qiyaas ka badan 66.7 ma guulaysan karto, sababtoo ah xataa haddii qof kastaa qiyaaso 100, bartilmaameedku wuxuu noqonayaa 66.7.
  • Guulaystaha toddobaadkan wuxuu muuqanayaa marka wareeggu dhammaado (wareeg kastaa waa toddobaad, Isniin ilaa Axad, UTC). Celceliska socda hore uma muujinno: ciyaarta ayuu xumaan lahaa. Wareeggu wuxuu u baahan yahay ugu yaraan 30 ciyaartoy si natiijo loo helo.

Waa maxay tirada ugu fiican ee la qiyaaso?

Ma jirto hal tiro oo mar walba ugu fiican: waxay ku xiran tahay waxa dadka kale qiyaasaan. Tartamada waaweyn ee dadweynaha, bartilmaameedku wuxuu ku dhacay qiyaastii 13 ilaa 22. Akhristayaasha Financial Times celceliskoodu wuxuu ahaa 18.9, sidaas darteed bartilmaameedku wuxuu ahaa 12.6 [2]. Tartankii wargeyska deenishka ee ay ka qayb galeen 19,196 akhriste, celcelisku wuxuu ahaa 32.4, bartilmaameedkuna 21.6 [3].

Jaantus tiirar ah: celceliska qiyaasta iyo bartilmaameedka afar tartan oo la daabacay. Daraasaddii shaybaarka 1995: celcelis 36.7, bartilmaameed 24.5. Politiken 2005: celcelis 32.4, bartilmaameed 21.6. Spektrum 1997: celcelis 22.1, bartilmaameed 14.7. Financial Times 1997: celcelis 18.9, bartilmaameed 12.6.
Jaantuska 1. Celceliska qiyaasta iyo bartilmaameedka 2/3 ee afar tartan oo la daabacay. Xogta: Nagel 1995, wareegga koowaad, 67 arday [1]; Politiken 2005, 19,196 akhriste [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, 2,728 akhriste, iyo Financial Times 1997, 1,476 akhriste [2].

Xog kooban

  • Waxa ay muujinayso: inta tallaabo ee aad hore uga sii fikirto waxa dadka kale samayn doonaan. Dhaqaale-yahannadu waxay tan ugu yeeraan fikirka heer-k [1][4].
  • Tijaabadii caanka ahayd: wareeggii koowaad ee daraasaddii Rosemarie Nagel ee 1995, ardaydu celcelis ahaan waxay qiyaaseen 36.7, qiyaasaha ugu badanna waxay ku dhow yihiin 33 iyo 22 [1].
  • Tartamada waaweyn: 1,476 akhristayaasha Financial Times celcelis ahaan waxay qiyaaseen 18.9 (qiyaastii guulaysatay waxay ahayd 13), halka 19,196 akhristayaasha Politiken celcelis ahaan ay qiyaaseen 32.4 [2][3].
  • Soo jiidashada 33: nooc ay New York Times samaysay 2015 oo ay ka qaybgaleen qiyaastii 56,000 akhriste, 33 ayaa ahayd qiyaasta ugu caansan [5].
  • Asalka fikradda: dhaqaaleyahan John Maynard Keynes ayaa suuqa saamiyada la barbardhigay tartan quruxeed, halkaas oo aad ku guulaysato adigoo dooranaya wejiga ay dadka kale dooran doonaan [6].

Sida ciyaartu u shaqayso

  1. Dooro tiro dhan oo u dhexaysa 0 iyo 100, dabadeed xaqiiji.
  2. Qiyaasaha qof walba ee toddobaadkan waa la isku celceliyaa marka wareeggu xirmo, bartilmaameedkuna waa 2/3 celceliskaas.
  3. Qiyaasta ugu dhow ayaa guulaysata. Haddii barbaro timaaddo, guusha waa la wadaagaa. Isniinta, boggu wuxuu muujinayaa ciyaartoydii toddobaadkii hore, celceliska, bartilmaameedka, qiyaasta guulaysatay iyo sida tiro kasta loo qiyaasay.

Wareeg kasta waxaa la tirinayaa hal qiyaas qofkiiba. Waxaan tirinnaa hal qiyaas browser kasta iyo hal qiyaas xiriir internet kasta, sidaas darteed dadka wadaaga shabakad (dugsi, xafiis ama qoys) hal mar oo keliya ayaa toddobaadkii la tirinayaa. Qiyaasta labaad lama tirinayo. Isla marka aad qiyaasto ka dib, boggu wuxuu muujinayaa halka tiradaadu kaga jirto jaranjarada sababaynta iyo sida ay uga soo bixi lahayd tartamadii caanka ahaa ee kor lagu sheegay.

Waxa ciyaartu cabbirto iyo halka ay ka timid

Dhaqaale-yahannadu ciyaartan waxay ugu yeeraan tartanka quruxda ee p, halkan p = 2/3. Rosemarie Nagel ayaa 1995 ka dhigtay tijaabo shaybaar oo caan ah [1]. Waxay ogaatay in dadku aanay sababaynta ilaa 0 gaadhin, isla markaana aanay si aan kala sooc lahayn u qiyaasin. Intooda badan waxay joogsadaan hal ama laba tallaabo ka dib oo ah "waxay u malaynayaan inaan anigu u malaynayo".

Fikradda ah in dadku tiro kooban oo tallaabooyin ah uga fikiraan dadka kale waxay saldhig u noqotay moodooyinka heer-k iyo kala-sarraynta garashada ee fikirka xeeladeed [4][7]. Tartamadii wargeysyada ee xigay, mid kasta oo ay kumannaan akhriste ka qaybgaleen, waxay muujiyeen isla tallaabooyinka 33 iyo 22, iyo koox dooratay 0 ama 1 [2].

Waxa ciyaartani kuu sheegi karto iyo waxa aanay kuu sheegi karin

Heerkaagu wuxuu qeexayaa hal qiyaas oo hal ciyaar ah. Ma aha cabbir garaad, heer qoto dheerna kama fiicna: qofka guulaysta waa kan dadka ugu badan si fiican u sii saadaaliya, dadkuna badanaa waxay joogsadaan hal ama laba tallaabo. Qiyaasta heerka 4 waa sababaynta xeeladaysan, balse badanaa waxay ku dambaysaa inay ka hooseyso bartilmaameedka.

Ciyaartoyda halkan joogta waa dadka soo booqda toddobaadkaas, mana aha koox go'an, sidaas darteed bartilmaameedku toddobaad kasta wuu isbeddelaa. Tartamadii caanka ahaa xeerar yar oo kala duwan bay lahaayeen: Financial Times wuxuu oggolaa tirooyin dhan oo keliya, Politiken iyo Spektrum-na jajab tobanle [2][3].

Su'aalaha inta badan la isweydiiyo

Waa maxay jawaabta ciyaarta qiyaas 2/3 celceliska?

Ciyaarta qiyaas 2/3 celceliska jawaab go'an ma leh. Aragtida ciyaaruhu waxay sheegaysaa 0, sababtoo ah ciyaaryahan kastaa wuxuu haystaa sabab uu uga hooseeyo dadka kale. Laakiin dadka dhabta ahi waxay joogsadaan hal ama laba tallaabo ka dib, sidaas darteed tartamadii la daabacay tirada guulaysatay waxay ahayd 13 ilaa 21.6 [2][3]. Qiyaasta ugu fiican waa 2/3 waxa aad filayso in dadka kale celcelis ahaan qiyaasaan.

Maxay 0 u guulaysan weydaa?

Eber wuxuu guulaysan lahaa oo keliya haddii ku dhowaad qof kastaa sababaynta ilaa dhammaadka gaadho. Tartamada dhabta ah, dad badan waxay qiyaasaan ku dhowaad 33 ama 22, qaarna tirooyin waaweyn ayay doortaan, taas oo celceliska kor u qaadda. Tartankii Financial Times, celcelisku wuxuu ahaa 18.9, bartilmaameedkuna 12.6, oo aad uga fog 0 [2].

Maxaa loola jeedaa "qofka ku fikira heerka 2"?

Qofka ku fikira heerka 2 wuxuu filayaa in dadka kale hal tallaabo hore u sii fekeraan (waxay qiyaasi doonaan ku dhowaad 33), dabadeedna hal tallaabo kale ayuu sii qaadaa: 2/3 ee 33 waa ku dhowaad 22. Ciyaarta Helibrain, heerkaagu waa tallaabada jaranjarada (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) ee ugu dhow qiyaastaada [1].

In ka badan hal mar ma ciyaari karaa?

Haa, laakiin wareegga toddobaadka waxaa lagu tirinayaa qiyaastaadii ugu horreysay oo keliya. Qiyaasaha dambe jaranjarada waa lagu tusayaa, balse lama tirinayo, sidaas darteed cidina natiijada kuma leexin karto qiyaaso badan. Wareeg cusub wuxuu bilaabmaa Isniin kasta.

Ciyaarta 2/3 ee Helibrain ma runtii waa bilaash?

Haa. Ciyaarta 2/3 ee Helibrain iyo natiijo kasta oo toddobaadle ah waa bilaash: isdiiwaangelin la'aan, iimayl la'aan, lacag bixin la'aan. Helibrain dakhli ayay ka heshaa abkeeda, kaas oo leh qorshe bilaash ah iyo qorshayaal lacag ah; ciyaarista abku kuguma khasbana.

Imtixaanno la xiriira

Eeg 43 imtixaannada maskaxda ee bilaashka ah oo dhan

Ma rabtaa inaad maalin kasta tan ku shaqayso? Barnaamijka Helibrain (hadda Ingiriisi ku qoran) wuxuu leeyahay qorshe bilaash ah iyo qorshayaal lacag ah.

Ilaha

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (numbers from the 1999 working paper: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Sida aan boggan u samaynay: waxaa qoray kooxda Helibrain, iyadoo ka duulaysa daraasadaha kor ku taxan, waxaana dib u eegay Robert(Ingiriisi) (musharraxa PhD ee biofiisigiska) Noofeembar 4, 2026. Waxaan cusboonaysiinaa marka ilaha isbeddelaan.