Ganizirani 2/3 ya avareji

Sankhani nambala. Sabata ino wopambana ndi amene ayandikira kwambiri 2/3 ya avareji ya onse. Zaulere, popanda kulembetsa.

Wolemba: gulu la HelibrainYawunikidwa ndi Robert(Chingelezi), wophunzira wa digiri ya udokotala pa sayansi ya biophysicsLofalitsidwa Linawunikidwanso komaliza pa

Mmene mungawerengere zotsatira zanu

  • Mulingo wanu ukusonyeza masitepe angati patsogolo munaganizira. Kuganiza nambala yapafupi ndi 50 ndi mulingo wa 0: simunaganizire ena. Yapafupi ndi 33 ndi mulingo wa 1: "anthu angaganize pafupifupi 50". Yapafupi ndi 22 ndi mulingo wa 2: "anthu angaganize sitepe imodzi patsogolo". Pa sitepe iliyonse, nambalayo imakhala 2/3 ya yapitayo [1].
  • Yankho la chiphunzitso cha masewera ndi 0. Ngati aliyense akanaganizira mpaka kumapeto, nambala iliyonse ikanatsikira mpaka 0. Osewera enieni saganiza choncho, motero 0 sinapambanepo mpikisano wotseguka [1][2].
  • Sangapambane: nambala yoposa 66.7 singapambane, chifukwa ngakhale aliyense atasankha 100, cholinga chingakhale 66.7.
  • Wopambana wa sabata ino amaoneka masewera akatha (masewera aliwonse amakhala sabata imodzi, kuyambira Lolemba mpaka Lamlungu, UTC). Sitisonyeza avareji yamoyo isanathe, chifukwa zingawononge masewerawo. Pamafunika osewera osachepera 30 kuti pakhale zotsatira.

Kodi nambala yabwino yosankha ndi iti?

Palibe nambala imodzi yabwino nthawi zonse: zimatengera zimene ena onse asankha. M’mipikisano ikuluikulu yotseguka, cholingacho chinali pakati pa pafupifupi 13 ndi 22. Owerenga a Financial Times anasankha avareji ya 18.9, motero cholinga chinali 12.6 [2]. Mumpikisano wa nyuzipepala ya ku Denmark wokhala ndi owerenga 19,196, avareji inali 32.4 ndipo cholinga chinali 21.6 [3].

Tchati cha mizati: avareji ya manambala osankhidwa ndi cholinga m’mipikisano inayi yofalitsidwa. Kafukufuku wa labotale wa 1995: avareji 36.7, cholinga 24.5. Politiken 2005: avareji 32.4, cholinga 21.6. Spektrum 1997: avareji 22.1, cholinga 14.7. Financial Times 1997: avareji 18.9, cholinga 12.6.
Chithunzi 1. Avareji ya manambala osankhidwa ndi cholinga cha 2/3 m’mipikisano inayi yofalitsidwa. Zambiri: Nagel 1995, kuzungulira koyamba, ophunzira 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, owerenga 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, owerenga 2,728, ndi Financial Times 1997, owerenga 1,476 [2].

Mfundo zachidule

  • Zimene zimasonyeza: masitepe angati patsogolo mumaganizira zimene anthu ena angachite. Akatswiri azachuma amati kuganiza kwa mulingo-k [1][4].
  • Kuyesa kotchuka: mu kuzungulira koyamba kwa kafukufuku wa Rosemarie Nagel wa 1995, ophunzira anasankha avareji ya 36.7, ndipo manambala amene anasankhidwa kwambiri anali pafupi ndi 33 ndi 22 [1].
  • Mipikisano ikuluikulu: owerenga 1,476 a Financial Times anasankha avareji ya 18.9 (nambala yopambana inali 13), ndipo owerenga 19,196 a Politiken anasankha avareji ya 32.4 [2][3].
  • Kukopeka ndi 33: mu mtundu wa New York Times wa 2015, wokhala ndi owerenga pafupifupi 56,000, 33 inali nambala yosankhidwa kwambiri [5].
  • Mmene lingaliroli linayambira: katswiri wa zachuma John Maynard Keynes anayerekezera msika wa masheya ndi mpikisano wa kukongola kumene mumapambana posankha nkhope imene ena adzasankhe [6].

Mmene masewerawa amayendera

  1. Sankhani nambala yonse kuyambira 0 mpaka 100, ndipo mutsimikize.
  2. Manambala onse osankhidwa sabata ino amawerengedwa kukhala avareji masewera akatha, ndipo cholinga chimakhala 2/3 ya avarejiyo.
  3. Amene wasankha nambala yapafupi kwambiri amapambana. Akafanana, amapambana limodzi. Lolemba, tsambali limaonetsa osewera a sabata yapitayo, avareji, cholinga, nambala yopambana ndi mmene nambala iliyonse inasankhidwira.

Pa kuzungulira kulikonse, timawerengera nambala imodzi yokha pa munthu aliyense. Timawerengera nambala imodzi pa msakatuli ndi pa intaneti imodzi, choncho anthu ogwiritsa ntchito netiweki imodzi (sukulu, ofesi kapena banja) amawerengedwa ngati kamodzi pa sabata. Nambala yachiwiri siziwerengedwa. Mukangoganiza, tsambali limaonetsa malo amene nambala yanu ili pa makwerero a kulingalira komanso mmene ikanafikira m’mipikisano yotchuka yomwe yatchulidwa pamwambayi.

Zimene masewerawa amayesa, ndi kumene anachokera

Akatswiri azachuma amatcha masewerawa mpikisano wa kukongola wa p, ndipo apa p = 2/3. Rosemarie Nagel anachititsa kuti ukhale kuyesa kotchuka kwa labotale mu 1995 [1]. Zimene anapeza n’zakuti: anthu saganizira mpaka kufika pa 0, komanso samangosankha mwachisawawa. Ambiri amangoganiza sitepe imodzi kapena ziwiri zokha za "iwo akuganiza zimene ine ndikuganiza".

Lingaliro lakuti anthu amaganizira masitepe ochepa chabe pa zimene ena angachite linayambitsa mitundu ya kuganiza mwanzeru ya mulingo-k ndi magulu a kulingalira [4][7]. Mipikisano ya m’nyuzipepala imene inatsatira, iliyonse yokhala ndi owerenga masauzande, inaonetsanso masitepe omwewo pa 33 ndi 22, komanso gulu la anthu amene anasankha 0 kapena 1 [2].

Zimene masewerawa angakuuzeni ndi zimene sangathe

Mulingo wanu umafotokoza nambala imodzi imene mwasankha pa masewera amodzi. Siyezo cha luntha, ndipo mulingo wokwera si wabwino kwambiri: wopambana ndi amene aneneratu bwino zimene gulu la anthu ambiri lidzasankha, ndipo gululo nthawi zambiri limangoganizira sitepe imodzi kapena ziwiri. Kusankha kwa mulingo wa 4 kumasonyeza kulingalira mwanzeru, koma nthawi zambiri kumathera nambala ili pansi pa cholinga.

Osewera apa ndi amene abwera sabata imeneyo, osati gulu lokhazikika la anthu, choncho cholinga chimasintha sabata ndi sabata. Mipikisano yotchuka inali ndi malamulo osiyana pang’ono: Financial Times inkalola manambala athunthu okha, pamene Politiken ndi Spektrum zinkalola manambala a desimali [2][3].

Mafunso amene amafunsidwa kawirikawiri

Kodi yankho la masewera a kuganizira 2/3 ya avareji ndi liti?

Masewera a kuganizira 2/3 ya avareji alibe yankho lokhazikika. Chiphunzitso cha masewera chimati 0, chifukwa wosewera aliyense ali ndi chifukwa chosankha nambala yotsika kuposa ya ena onse. Koma anthu enieni amangoganizira sitepe imodzi kapena ziwiri, choncho m’mipikisano yofalitsidwa nambala yopambana inali pakati pa 13 ndi 21.6 [2][3]. Nambala yabwino yosankha ndi 2/3 ya nambala imene mukuyembekezera kuti ena adzasankha pa avareji.

N’chifukwa chiyani 0 sapambana?

Zero ikanapambana kokha ngati pafupifupi aliyense akanaganizira mpaka kufika pamenepo. M’mipikisano yeniyeni, anthu ambiri amasankha pafupifupi 33 kapena 22, ndipo ena amasankha manambala apamwamba, zimene zimakweza avareji. Mumpikisano wa Financial Times, avareji inali 18.9 ndipo cholinga chinali 12.6, kutali kwambiri ndi 0 [2].

Kodi "woganiza wa mulingo wa 2" amatanthauza chiyani?

Woganiza wa mulingo wa 2 amayembekezera kuti anthu ena aganizira sitepe imodzi patsogolo (adzasankha pafupifupi 33), kenako iye amapitanso sitepe imodzi: 2/3 ya 33 ndi pafupifupi 22. M’masewera a Helibrain, mulingo wanu ndi sitepe ya pa makwerero (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) imene ili pafupi kwambiri ndi nambala yanu [1].

Kodi ndingasewere kangapo?

Inde, koma nambala yanu yoyamba yokha imene mwasankha sabata iliyonse ndiyo imawerengedwa. Zosankha zina zimaonetsedwa pa makwerero, koma sizimawerengedwa, choncho palibe amene angasinthe zotsatira posankha kambirimbiri. Kuzungulira kwatsopano kumayamba Lolemba lililonse.

Kodi masewera a Helibrain a 2/3 ndi aulere ndithu?

Inde. Masewera a Helibrain a 2/3 ndi zotsatira zonse za mlungu uliwonse ndi zaulere: palibe kulembetsa, imelo kapena malipiro. Helibrain imapeza ndalama kuchokera ku pulogalamu yake, yomwe ili ndi dongosolo laulere ndi madongosolo olipira; simufunika pulogalamuyi kuti musewere.

Mayeso ena okhudzana nawo

Onani mayeso onse a ubongo aulere okwana 43

Mukufuna kuchita zimenezi tsiku ndi tsiku? Pulogalamu ya Helibrain (yomwe ilipo m’Chingelezi pakadali pano) ili ndi dongosolo laulere komanso madongosolo olipira.

Magwero

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (manambala atengedwa m’pepala la kafukufuku la 1999: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Mmene tinakonzekerera tsambali: gulu la Helibrain linalilemba potengera maphunziro amene alembedwa pamwambapa, ndipo Robert(Chingelezi) (wophunzira wa digiri ya udokotala pa sayansi ya biophysics) analiyang’ananso pa November 4, 2026. Timalisintha magwero akasintha.