Ɗaɓɓu 2/3 e hakkunde fuu

Suɓo limoore. Neɗɗo ɓadii 2/3 e hakkunde limooreji yimɓe fuu ndee yontere o heɓata. Ko hebannde, alaa binnditagol.

Winndii ko dental HelibrainƳeewtaama ko Robert(Engeleere), jannginoowo PhD e fisik biyolojiBayyinaama Ƴeewtaama kadi

Hol no janngitirte ngardam maa

  • Daraja maa hollata ko no eɓɓitaade e hakkille maa. Ɗaɓɓu ɓadii 50 ko daraja 0: a miijaaki ko goɗɗoɓe cuɓoto. Ɓadii 33 ko daraja 1: "yimɓe cuɓoto ko ɓadii 50". Ɓadii 22 ko daraja 2: "yimɓe miijoto haa ɓeydi eɓɓitaade gooto". Eɓɓitagol kala ɓuri lesdi ɗiɗi-tati (2/3) e ɗi ko adii [1].
  • Jaabawol teorii jeyaaɗe ko 0. So yimɓe fuu miijii haa timmi, ɗaɓɓe fuu laaɓoto haa 0. Jooni jooni, yimɓe ɗaɓɓata haa ɗoon, sabu ɗaɓɓu 0 meeɗaaki heɓde e ƴeewtagol yimɓe fuu [1][2].
  • Waawataa heɓde: ɗaɓɓu ɓuri 66,7 waawataa heɓde, sabu hay so yimɓe fuu ɗaɓɓii 100, hedef ɗum maa woni 66,7.
  • Neɗɗo heɓuɗo ndee yontere hollata so nde jeyaaɗe timmii (jeyaaɗe kala ko yontere, Altine haa Dama, UTC). Min hollatataa hakkunde limoore yimɓe ɗon ɗaɓɓata hade ɗum, sabu ɗum maa bonnu ndeeɗo. Jeyaaɗe ena sokli yimɓe tuma 30 ngam heɓde ngardam.

Ko hol limoore ɓuri moƴƴude ɗaɓɓude?

Alaa limoore gooto ɓuri moƴƴude ɗaɓɓude: ɗum fawii e ko yimɓe goɗɗe ɗaɓɓata. E ƴeewtagol yimɓe heewɗe, hedef ngari hakkunde 13 e 22. Jannginooɓe Financial Times heɓi hakkunde limoore 18,9, ɗum waɗi hedef ko 12,6 [2]. E ƴeewtagol binndannde Danmark wonnde yimɓe 19 196, hakkunde limoore ko 32,4, hedef kadi ko 21,6 [3].

Siifan darajaaji: hakkunde ɗaɓɓu e hedef e ƴeewtagol publieeɗe nayi. Ƴeewtagol laborator 1995: hakkunde 36.7, hedef 24.5. Politiken 2005: hakkunde 32.4, hedef 21.6. Spektrum 1997: hakkunde 22.1, hedef 14.7. Financial Times 1997: hakkunde 18.9, hedef 12.6.
Natal 1. Hakkunde ɗaɓɓu e hedef 2/3 e ƴeewtagol publieeɗe nayi. Keɓe: Nagel 1995, jeyaaɗe adannde, jannginooɓe 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, jannginooɓe 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, jannginooɓe 2,728, e Financial Times 1997, jannginooɓe 1,476 [2].

Hollit hello ngoo iwdi: Ɗaɓɓu 2/3 e hakkunde fuu. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/ff/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Habaruuji yaawɗi

  • Ko honno ɗum hollata: eɓɓitaade maa haa hol no goɗɗoɓe mbaɗata. Annduɓe ekonomik ina nodda ɗum miijitagol daraja-k [1][4].
  • Ƴeewtagol ado: e jeyaaɗe adannde e ƴeewtagol Rosemarie Nagel 1995, jannginooɓe ɗaɓɓii 36,7 e hakkunde, ɗaɓɓu ɗowiiɗo heewi woni ɓadii 33 e 22 [1].
  • Ƴeewtagol mawɗi: jannginooɓe Financial Times 1 476 heɓi hakkunde limoore 18,9 (ɗaɓɓu heɓuɗo ko 13), jannginooɓe Politiken 19 196 kadi heɓi hakkunde limoore 32,4 [2][3].
  • Ɗaɓɓu 33 ɗowiiɗo: e noƴƴere New York Times 2015, jannginooɓe 56,000 ɓadii, 33 woni ɗaɓɓu ɓuri heewde [5].
  • Hol to miijtagol ngol iwri: annduɗo ekonomik John Maynard Keynes yerdi suuqe aksiyoŋ e ƴeewtagol yeeso to heɓataa so a suɓii yeeso ngo goɗɗoɓe suɓoto [6].

No ndeeɗo waɗirta

  1. Suɓo limoore timmunde hakkunde 0 e 100, tee tabitinaa ɗum.
  2. Ɗaɓɓe yimɓe fuu ndee yontere laatata hakkunde e nde jeyaaɗe udditaama, tee hedef ko ɗiɗi-tati (2/3) e hakkunde ɗen.
  3. Ɗaɓɓu ɓadii hedef o heɓata. So ɗaɓɓe nanndi, heɓɓe fuu seernditoto heɓugol. Altine, hello oo hollata yimɓe yontere ɓennunde, hakkunde limoore, hedef, ɗaɓɓu heɓuɗo e no limoore kala ɗaɓɓiraa.

Ɗaɓɓu gooto tan e neɗɗo waɗata e jeyaaɗe kala. Min limtata ɗaɓɓu gooto e fowdeere (browser) kala, e ɗaɓɓu gooto e jokkondiral internet kala; ko ɗum waɗi yimɓe huutortooɓe jokkondiral gootal (lekki jannginol, biro, galle) limtata ko gooto e yontere. Ɗaɓɓu ɗiɗaɓo limtetaake. Caggal ɗaɓɓude maa, hello oo hollata ɗo limoore maa woni e ɗowtaare miijitagol, e hol no nde maa waɗnoo e ƴeewtagol anndungol ɗowngol dow.

Ko ndeeɗo ƴeewtata e ko ɗum iwri

Annduɓe ekonomik noddata ndeeɗo p-beauty contest, p = 2/3 ɗoo. Rosemarie Nagel waɗi nde ƴeewtagol laborator anndungol e 1995 [1]. Ko o yiyri: yimɓe miijataa haa 0, tee ɗaɓɓataako ko e nguurndam. Heewɓe darii caggal eɓɓitaade gooto walla ɗiɗi e miijtagol "ɓe miijii wonde mi miijata".

Ngol miijtagol, wonde yimɓe eɓɓita e hakkille ɗiɗi e goɗɗoɓe haa haa, waɗi fitinaaji miijtagol daraja-k e miijtagol hakkiilo jokkondiral [4][7]. Ƴeewtagol binndanɗe ɗowɗe ɗowruɗe ɗum, e jannginooɓe heewɓe e kala, holli eɓɓitaali ɗiɗi ɗen e 33 e 22, kadi e renndo ɗaɓɓuɗo 0 walla 1 [2].

Ko honno ndeeɗo waawi e ko o waawataa hollude

Daraja maa sifoto ɗaɓɓu gooto e ndeeɗo gooto. Ɗum wonaa ƴeewtagol hakkille, tee daraja ɓuri dow wonaa moƴƴi: neɗɗo mo ƴeewti renndo e moƴƴude o heɓata, tee renndo fuu darii ko eɓɓitaade gooto walla ɗiɗi. Ɗaɓɓu daraja-4 ko miijtagol hakkille, kono ɗum e jaati heewi waɗde limoore maa les hedef.

Yimɓe ɗoo ko kala arɗo e yontere ndee, wonaa renndo tabitinaaɗo, ɗum waɗi hedef wayloto yontere e yontere. Ƴeewtagol anndungol ɗen huutorii laabi seertiiɗi seeɗa: Financial Times yamiri limoore timmunde tan, Politiken e Spektrum yamiri limoore maande [2][3].

Naamne ɗaɓɓitaaka e jaabawuuji mum

Ko hol jaabawol ɗaɓɓude 2/3 e hakkunde fuu?

Ƴeewtagol suɓaade 2/3 e hakkunde limoore fuu alaa jaabawol tabitngol. Miijitagol ciyaare wi'i 0, sabu kala ciyaaroowo heɓi daliilu ngam suɓaade limoore les e ɗe yimɓe woɗɓe fuu. Kono yimɓe goonga ɗoo ɓe dartata caggal ɗowtagol go'o walla ɗiɗi, sabu ɗum waɗi e ndeeɗooji ɓe winndii, limoore mo jaɓɓuɓe suɓii woni hakkunde 13 e 21.6 [2][3]. Suɓaade moƴƴunde ko 2/3 e ɗuum ko a miijii wonde woɗɓe suɓata e hakkunde fuu.

Hol ko 0 heɓataa?

Limoore 0 heɓata tan so yimɓe fuu ena miijii haa ɓen heɓi ɓaɗtude. E ƴeewtagol goonga, heewɓe ɗaɓɓata ɓadii 33 walla 22, e wonɓe ɗaɓɓata limoore mawɗe, ɗum ɓeydata hakkunde limoore. E ƴeewtagol Financial Times, hakkunde limoore ko 18,9, hedef kadi ko 12,6, ɗum woɗɗii no feewi e 0 [2].

Ko honno "miijo daraja-2" innirta?

Miijo daraja-2 ena miijoo wonde yimɓe goɗɗe miijoto eɓɓitaade gooto (ɓe ɗaɓɓoto ɓadii 33), o kadi ɓeydata eɓɓitaade gooto: ɗiɗi-tati (2/3) e 33 ko ɓadii 22. E ndeeɗo Helibrain, daraja maa ko eɓɓitaande e ɗowtaare (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) nde ɗaɓɓu maa ɓadii [1].

Mi waawi waraade ndeeɗo haa ɓeydi?

Eey, kono ɗaɓɓu maa adanɗo tan e yontere kala limtata e jeyaaɗe ɗen. Ɗaɓɓe ɗowɗe hollata e ɗowtaare, kono limtetaake, ɗum waɗi neɗɗo waawataa waylude ngardam so o ɗaɓɓii haa heewi. Jeyaaɗe kesɗe fuɗɗata Altine kala.

Ndeeɗo 2/3 Helibrain ko hebannde goonga?

Eey. Ndeeɗo 2/3 Helibrain e kala ngardam yontere ko hebanɗe: alaa binnditagol, alaa iimeel, alaa yoɓde. Helibrain heɓata ceede e app mum, ngol jogii goɗɗum hebanɗum e goɗɗum yoɓeteeɗum; a soklaani app ngam waawde waraade ndeeɗo.

Ƴeewte ɗe jokkondiri

Yiy ƴeewte hakkille ɗe njeyaa 43 fof

Aɗa yiɗi huutoraade ɗum ñalawma kala? App Helibrain (e Engeleere tan jooni) ena jogii feere nde yoɓetee, kadi ena jogii feere nde alaa yoɓde.

Hollit hello ngoo iwdi: Ɗaɓɓu 2/3 e hakkunde fuu. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/ff/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Ɓatakuuji

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (limooje ɗen iwri e winndannde 1999 nde adii: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

No min heɓiri ndee kelle: dental Helibrain winndi ɗum e ɗowirde e ɗaɗi ɗi limtinaa dow, tee Robert(Engeleere) (jannginoowo PhD e fisik biyoloji) ƴeewti ɗum e 4 jolal 2026. Min hesɗitina ɗum so ɗowirɗe ɗee waylii.