Hulaan so 2/3 na Average

Pili ka na bilang. Say manalo et say mikadeketan ed 2/3 na average na amin ed sayan simana. Libre, aliwan kailangan na panagparehistro.

Gapo ed grupo na HelibrainSinuri nen Robert(Ingles), kandidato ed PhD ed pisika na biyolohiyaInpublikar ed Kamaongan a sinuri ed

Panon ya basaen so resulta mo

  • Say antas mo et ipapanengneng to no pira ya panakiyan so naisip mo. Say hula ya asingger ed 50 et antas 0: agmo inisip so saray arum. Say asingger ed 33 et antas 1: "manhula ira na kaasi 50". Say asingger ed 22 et antas 2: "manisip ira na saray arum na manunot ira ed saray arum". Kada panakiyan et 2/3 na sakey ya dati [1].
  • Say sungbat na game theory et 0. No amin et manunot anggad sampot, amin ya hula et manliit anggad 0. Saray manlalaro ed totoo et agda itan gawaen, lapud say 0 et agni nalingwan ed publikong kompetisyon [1][2].
  • Anggapo so makaparaan a manalo: say hula ya labis ed 66.7 et agmakaparaan a manalo, ta anggano amin et manghula na 100, say target et 66.7.
  • Say manalo ed sayan simana et ipapanengneng no anggapoyen so round (sakey ya round et sakey ya simana, Lunes anggad Domingo, UTC). Agmi ipapanengneng so average ed anggapo ni so sampot: nasira so laro no gawaen mi itan. Kailangan na round so pinakababa ya 30 ya manlalaro pian onla so resulta.

Antoy pinakanengneng a bilang ya hulaan?

Anggapoy sakey ya pinakanengneng a bilang: mankabat ed say hula na saray arum. Ed saray dakel ya publikong kompetisyon, say target et natumbok ed lelen na 13 tan 22. Say average na saray bumabasa ed Financial Times et 18.9, kanian say target et 12.6 [2]. Ed sakey ya kompetisyon na pahayagan ed Denmark ya 19,196 ya bumabasa, 32.4 so average tan 21.6 so target [3].

Bar chart: average guess and target in four published contests. Lab study 1995: average 36.7, target 24.5. Politiken 2005: average 32.4, target 21.6. Spektrum 1997: average 22.1, target 14.7. Financial Times 1997: average 18.9, target 12.6.
Larawan 1. Say average ya hula tan say target ya 2/3 ed apat ya publikadong kompetisyon. Datos: Nagel 1995, umuna ya round, 67 ya estudyante [1]; Politiken 2005, 19,196 ya bumabasa [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, 2,728 ya bumabasa, tan Financial Times 1997, 1,476 ya bumabasa [2].

Bigbigen so sayan pahina: Hulaan so 2/3 na Average. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/pag/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Masanting ya amtaen

  • Antoy ipapanengneng to: pira ya panakiyan so panagisip mo ed antay gawaen na saray arum. Tawag na saray ekonomista ed sayan antas et level-k thinking [1][4].
  • Klasikong eksperimento: ed umuna ya round na panagadal nen Rosemarie Nagel ed 1995, say average ya hula na saray estudyante et 36.7, tan say kadawyan ya hula et asingger ed 33 tan 22 [1].
  • Dakel ya kompetisyon: 1,476 ya bumabasa ed Financial Times et 18.9 so average na hula ra (13 so hula ya nanalo), tan 19,196 ya bumabasa ed Politiken et 32.4 so average na hula ra [2][3].
  • Say pangguyod na 33: ed bersyon na New York Times ed 2015 ya binasa na mga 56,000 ya mambabasa, say 33 so pinakadakel ya hula [5].
  • San naggapuan so ideya: inkompara na ekonomista ya si John Maynard Keynes so merkado na sapi ed sakey ya kompetisyon na kagandahan, ya panalo ka no piliem so rupa ya pilien na saray arum [6].

Panon ya manlaro

  1. Pili ka na bilog ya bilang edlelen 0 anggad 100 tan ipirmi itan.
  2. Averagen so amin ya hula ed sayan simana no sarado la so round, tan say target et 2/3 na average itan.
  3. Say hula ya mikadeketan so manalo. No agkapara so resulta, kapara iray panalo. Ed Lunes, ipanengneng na pahina so manlalaro ed napalabas ya simana, average, target, hula ya nanalo, tan panon ya inhulaan so kada bilang.

Sakey labat ya hula na sakey ya too so bilangen ed kada round. Bilangen mi so sakey ya hula ed kada browser tan sakey ya koneksyon ed internet, kaya saray too ya manlalako ed sakey ya network (eskuelaan, opisina, pamilya) et sakey labat so bilang ed sakey ya simana. Say segundong hula et agbilangen. Kauli la na panaghula mo, ipanengneng na pahina no iner so bilang mo ed hagdan na panagisip tan no antoy resulta to ed saray bantog ya kompetisyon ed ngato.

Antoy sukimaen na laro, tan iner so gagalaan to

Tatawag na saray ekonomista ed sayan laro et p-beauty contest, ditan p = 2/3. Inaramal ya bantog nen Rosemarie Nagel itan bilang eksperimento ed laboratoryo ed 1995 [1]. Say natuklasan to: agtayo manisip anggad 0, tan agtayo met manhula na basta-basta labat. Sagmamano so mankompleto ed sakey o dua ya panakiyan na "manisip ira na manisipak".

Say ideya a manisip iray too na limitadong bilang ya panakiyan nipaakar ed saray arum, et nagbalin ya modelo na level-k tan cognitive hierarchy nipaakar ed estratehiyaan ya panagisip [4][7]. Impanengneng na saray kompetisyon ed pahayagan a sinmublay, ya kada sakey et pigaran libo so bumabasa, so kapara ya panakiyan ed 33 tan 22, kaiba so grupo ya namili na 0 o 1 [2].

Antoy imparengneng tan ag-imparengneng na sayan laro

Ipaliwawa na antas mo so sakey ya hula ed sakey ya laro. Agiyan sukisukimat na kabatiran, tan say mas ambetel ya antas et agmas maong: say manalo et say manhula na pinakamaong na karamihan, tan kadawyan ya onsardeng so karamihan ed sakey o dua ya panakiyan. Say hula ed antas-4 et maong ya panagisip ya kadawyan so resulta to et labis ya mababa ed target.

Saray manlalaro ditoy et saramay onsabi ed sayan simana, aliwan pirmi ya pinili ya grupo, kaya mibabaliw so target kada simana. Medyo abeba so saray linteg na saray bantog ya kompetisyon: say Financial Times et manbilang na bilog labat ya bilang, tan impalubos na Politiken tan Spektrum so bilang ya walaan na desimal [2][3].

Saray masansan ya saludsod

Antoy sungbat ed panaghula na 2/3 na average?

Say panaghula na 2/3 na average et anggapoy pirmi ya sungbat. Kanian say sungbat na game theory et 0, ta kada manlalaro et walaan na rason ya manliit ed saray arum. Balet ed totoo, onsardeng so saray too kalpasan na sakey o dua ya panakiyan, kaya ed saray publikadong kompetisyon, say bilang ya nanalo et edlelen na 13 tan 21.6 [2][3]. Say pinakamaong ya hula et 2/3 na bilayen mong average ya hula na saray arum.

Akin ya agmanalo so 0?

Say zero et manalo labat no arum-arum so makakompleto ya manisip anggad say ungto. Ed saray totoo ya kompetisyon, dakel ya manhula na mga 33 o 22, tan wala met saray manhula na matataas ya bilang, a mangipataas ed average. Ed kompetisyon na Financial Times, 18.9 so average tan 12.6 so target, marakew ed 0 [2].

Antoy kayariwan na "manisip ed antas 2"?

Say manisip ed antas-2 et mananisia ya manisip ed sakey ya panakiyan so arum (manhula ira na mga 33) tan manunot met ed sakey ya panakiyan: 2/3 na 33 et mga 22. Ed laro na Helibrain, say antas mo et say panakiyan ed hagdan (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) ya pinakasinggeran na hula mo [1].

Makaparaan ak ya manlaro labis ed sakey?

On, balet say umuna labat ya hula mo ed kada simana so bilangen ed round. Ipapanengneng so saray sumublay ya hula ed hagdan, balet agira bilangen, pian anggapo so makaparaan a mangbalbaliw ed resulta pauli na dakel ya panaghula. Manlakan so baro ya round ed kada Lunes.

Talagan libre so laro na 2/3 na Helibrain?

On. Libre so laro na 2/3 na Helibrain tan amin ya resulta kada simana: anggapoy panagparehistro, email, o bayad. Mankakitaan so Helibrain ed aplikasyon to, ya walaan na libreng plano tan planon babayadan; agmo kailangan so aplikasyon pian manlaro.

Saray kaaruman ya sukimat

Nengnengen amin ya 43 libre ya sukimat na isip

Labay mo irayar inaldaw? Say app na Helibrain (ed Ingles ni laeng) et walaan na libre tan bayad ya plano.

Bigbigen so sayan pahina: Hulaan so 2/3 na Average. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/pag/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Saray reperensya

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (bilang manipud ed working paper na 1999: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Kasinmuan na pananggawa ed say pahina: insulat na grupo na Helibrain, base ed saray pag-adalan ya nailista ed ngato, tan sinuri nen Robert(Ingles) (kandidato ed PhD ed pisika na biyolohiya) ed 11/4/2026. Pabaroen mi ito no agbaliw iray pinagkunan.