ꯅꯪꯒꯤ ꯐꯂꯥꯐꯜ ꯀꯔꯝꯅꯥ ꯄꯥꯕꯒꯦ
- ꯅꯪꯒꯤ ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯜ ꯅꯪꯅꯥ ꯑꯍꯣꯡꯕ ꯀꯌꯥꯝ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗꯥ ꯊꯤꯅꯈꯤꯕꯒꯦ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯎꯠꯂꯤ। 50 ꯒꯥ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯊꯤꯕꯗꯤ ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯜ 0: ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯝꯗꯥ ꯈꯟꯅꯗꯕꯥ। 33 ꯒꯥ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗꯤ ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯜ 1: “ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ 50 ꯃꯃꯥꯡ ꯈꯟꯒꯅꯤ” ꯍꯥꯌꯅꯥ ꯈꯟꯕꯥ। 22 ꯒꯥ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕꯗꯤ ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯜ 2: “ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯣꯏꯅꯥ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗꯥ ꯈꯟꯒꯅꯤ” ꯍꯥꯌꯅꯥ ꯈꯟꯕꯥ। ꯑꯃꯃꯃꯒꯤ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯑꯍꯣꯡꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ 2/3 ꯑꯣꯏ [1]।
- ꯒꯦꯝ ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯤꯡꯂꯣꯟꯒꯤ ꯃꯈꯜꯒꯤ ꯐꯂꯥꯐꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ 0 ꯑꯣꯏ। ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅꯥ ꯃꯊꯪꯗꯥ ꯂꯣꯏꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯔꯕꯗꯤ, ꯊꯤꯕ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ 0 ꯐꯥꯎꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯍꯜꯂꯤꯕꯅꯤ። ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯇꯧꯗꯦ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅꯥ 0 ꯅꯥ ꯃꯤꯌꯥꯝꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯂꯦꯟꯖ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯗꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯅꯈꯤꯗꯦ [1][2]।
- ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯌꯥꯗꯕꯥ: 66.7 ꯗꯒꯤ ꯃꯊꯛꯇꯥ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯇꯦ, ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅꯥ 100 ꯊꯤꯔꯕꯁꯨ ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ 66.7 ꯑꯣꯏꯒꯅꯤ।
- ꯃꯃꯥꯡ ꯆꯌꯣꯜꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯔꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗꯥ ꯎꯠꯂꯒꯅꯤ (ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗ ꯑꯃꯗꯤ ꯆꯌꯣꯜ ꯑꯃꯥ, ꯅꯤꯡꯊꯧꯀꯥꯕꯥ ꯗꯒꯤ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠꯊꯥꯡ ꯐꯥꯎꯕ, UTC)। ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯀꯌꯥꯒꯤ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗꯥ ꯎꯠꯂꯣꯏ, ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯈꯟꯅꯥ ꯎꯠꯂꯒꯅꯤ। ꯐꯂꯥꯐꯜ ꯐꯪꯅꯕ ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗ ꯑꯃꯗꯥ 30 ꯗꯒꯤ ꯍꯦꯟꯅꯥ ꯄ꯭ꯂꯦꯌꯔ ꯂꯩꯒꯗꯕꯅꯤ।
ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯐꯕ ꯅꯝꯕꯔ ꯀꯔꯤꯅꯣ?
ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯥ ꯑꯐꯕ ꯅꯝꯕꯔ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ: ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅꯥ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯊꯤꯒꯅꯤ ꯃꯗꯨꯗꯥ ꯂꯥꯌꯅꯩ। ꯃꯌꯥꯝ ꯌꯥꯝꯕ ꯃꯤꯌꯥꯝꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯂꯦꯟꯖꯁꯤꯡꯗꯥ ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ 13 ꯗꯒꯤ 22 ꯐꯥꯎꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ। Financial Times ꯄꯥꯕꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ 18.9 ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ 12.6 ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ [2]। ꯗꯦꯅꯃꯥꯔꯛꯀꯤ ꯈꯣꯡꯆꯠ ꯑꯃꯗꯥ Politiken ꯆꯥꯁꯤꯟꯅꯕꯥ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ 19,196 ꯒꯤ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ 32.4 ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ 21.6 ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ [3]।
ꯃꯥꯏ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯝ ꯄꯤꯌꯨ: ꯃꯌꯥꯝꯒꯤ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯒꯤ 2/3 ꯊꯤꯌꯨ. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/mni/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.
ꯑꯈꯟꯕ ꯋꯥꯐꯝꯁꯤꯡ
- ꯃꯁꯤꯅꯥ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯎꯠꯂꯤ: ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯇꯧꯒꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯗꯥ ꯅꯪꯅꯥ ꯑꯍꯣꯡꯕ ꯀꯌꯥꯝ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗꯥ ꯈꯟꯅꯕꯒꯦ। ꯑꯔꯊꯤꯀꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯃꯁꯤꯕꯨ level-k ꯈꯟꯅꯕ ꯍꯥꯌꯅꯥ ꯀꯧꯏ [1][4]।
- ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯑꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯌꯥꯕ: Rosemarie Nagelꯒꯤ 1995ꯒꯤ ꯑꯍꯥꯟꯕ ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗꯗꯥ, ꯆꯥꯅꯕꯤꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯕꯗꯥ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ 36.7 ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯔꯤꯕ ꯅꯝꯕꯔꯁꯤꯡ 33 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 22 ꯒꯥ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯈꯤ [1]।
- ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯆꯥꯂꯦꯟꯖ: Financial Timesꯒꯤ ꯄꯥꯊꯣꯛꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ 1,476 ꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ 18.9 ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ (ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯈꯤꯕ ꯊꯤꯕ 13), ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ Politikenꯒꯤ ꯄꯥꯊꯣꯛꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ 19,196 ꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ 32.4 ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ [2][3]।
- 33ꯒꯤ ꯈꯣꯡꯆꯠ: 2015ꯒꯤ New York Timesꯒꯤ ꯑꯃꯨꯛꯀꯤ ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯗꯥ ꯄꯥꯊꯣꯛꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯃꯃꯥꯡ 56,000 ꯗꯥ, 33 ꯑꯗꯨ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯈꯟꯈꯤꯕ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ [5]।
- ꯈꯣꯡꯆꯠ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯂꯥꯛꯄꯒꯦ: ꯑꯔꯊꯤꯀꯒꯤ ꯃꯤꯡꯂꯣꯟ John Maynard Keynesꯅꯥ ꯁ꯭ꯇꯣꯛ ꯃꯥꯔꯀꯦꯠꯇꯨ ꯃꯆꯨ ꯐꯕ ꯃꯈꯣꯡ ꯈꯟꯅꯕ ꯆꯥꯂꯦꯟꯖ ꯑꯃꯒꯥ ꯑꯣꯏꯅꯥ ꯈꯟꯈꯤ, ꯃꯗꯨꯗꯥ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯈꯟꯒꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯅꯥ ꯈꯟꯕ ꯃꯈꯣꯡ ꯈꯟꯕꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯅꯕ ꯑꯣꯏ [6]।
ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯀꯔꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯕꯛ ꯇꯧꯕꯒꯦ
- ꯅꯝꯕꯔ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯈꯟꯕꯤꯌꯨ 0 ꯗꯒꯤ 100 ꯐꯥꯎꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯈꯣꯝꯖꯤꯟꯕꯤꯌꯨ।
- ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗ ꯂꯣꯏꯔꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗꯥ ꯃꯃꯥꯡ ꯆꯌꯣꯜꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯀꯤ ꯊꯤꯕꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯃꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯂꯦꯞꯅꯒꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯑꯗꯤ ꯃꯄꯨꯡꯒꯤ 2/3 ꯑꯣꯏꯒꯅꯤ।
- ꯃꯥꯏꯀꯩ ꯌꯥꯝꯗꯒꯤ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯊꯤꯕꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯏ। ꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯅꯥ ꯐꯪꯅꯒꯅꯤ። ꯅꯤꯡꯊꯧꯀꯥꯕꯥ ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠꯇꯥ, ꯂꯥꯛꯈꯤꯕ ꯆꯌꯣꯜꯒꯤ ꯄ꯭ꯂꯦꯌꯔ, ꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ, ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ, ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯈꯤꯕ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯅꯝꯕꯔ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛ ꯀꯔꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯈꯤꯕꯒꯦ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯄꯦꯖꯅꯥ ꯎꯠꯂꯒꯅꯤ।
ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗ ꯑꯃꯗꯥ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯑꯃꯒꯤ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯈꯛ ꯌꯥꯎꯒꯅꯤ। ꯕ꯭ꯔꯥꯎꯖꯔ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯏꯟꯇꯔꯅꯦꯠ ꯀꯅꯦꯛꯁꯟ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯈꯛꯇꯃꯛ ꯂꯧꯏ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅꯥ ꯅꯦꯠꯋꯥꯔꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯁꯔꯨꯛ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯕ (ꯁ꯭ꯀꯨꯜ, ꯑꯣꯐꯤꯁ, ꯏꯃꯨꯡ) ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯆꯌꯣꯜ ꯑꯃꯗꯥ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯈꯛꯇꯃꯛ ꯑꯣꯏꯒꯅꯤ। ꯑꯅꯤꯁꯨꯕ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯧꯗꯦ। ꯅꯪꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯇꯧꯕ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗꯥ, ꯅꯝꯕꯔ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯈꯟꯅꯕ ꯁꯤꯟꯗꯥ ꯀꯔꯝꯅꯥ ꯂꯩꯕꯒꯦ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯂꯦꯟꯖ ꯃꯈꯜꯁꯤꯡꯗꯥ ꯀꯔꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯕꯛ ꯇꯧꯔꯝꯒꯅꯤ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯄꯦꯖꯅꯥ ꯎꯠꯂꯒꯅꯤ।
ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯅꯥ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯃꯥꯏꯊꯤꯕꯒꯦ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯀꯗꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯂꯥꯛꯈꯤꯕꯒꯦ
ꯑꯔꯊꯤꯀꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯕꯨ p-beauty contest ꯍꯥꯌꯅꯥ ꯀꯧꯏ, ꯃꯁꯤꯗꯥ p = 2/3 ꯑꯣꯏ। Rosemarie Nagelꯅꯥ 1995ꯗꯥ ꯂꯦꯕꯇꯥ ꯇꯧꯕ ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯑꯌꯥꯕ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯑꯣꯏꯍꯟꯈꯤ [1]। ꯃꯍꯥꯛꯀꯤ ꯐꯪꯈꯤꯕ ꯋꯥꯐꯝ: ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ 0 ꯐꯥꯎꯕ ꯂꯣꯏꯅꯥ ꯍꯟꯗꯣꯛꯂꯤꯗꯦ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯊꯤꯕꯗꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯣꯛꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯔꯤꯗꯦ। ꯃꯈꯣꯌ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯒꯤ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯈꯟꯅꯗꯨꯅꯥ “ꯑꯈꯣꯌꯅꯥ ꯈꯟꯂꯤ ꯃꯗꯨꯅꯥ ꯑꯩꯅꯥ ꯈꯟꯂꯤ” ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯗꯥ ꯂꯣꯏꯔꯤ।
ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯥ ꯑꯍꯣꯡꯕ ꯃꯔꯤꯒꯤ ꯈꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯇꯝ ꯑꯈꯛꯅꯕ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯈꯟꯅꯕ ꯑꯗꯨꯅꯥ, level-k ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ cognitive hierarchy ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯂꯝꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯑꯣꯏꯍꯟꯈꯤ [4][7]। ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗꯥ ꯂꯥꯛꯈꯤꯕ ꯑꯊꯧꯕ ꯆꯥꯁꯤꯟꯅꯕꯁꯤꯡꯗꯥ, ꯁ꯭ꯋꯥꯡ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯌꯥꯎꯔꯕꯁꯨ, 33 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 22 ꯗꯥ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕ ꯈꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯃꯁꯥꯅꯥ ꯎꯠꯈꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ 0 ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ 1 ꯈꯟꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯑꯈꯟꯅꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯂꯩꯈꯤ [2]।
ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯅꯥ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯈꯪꯍꯜꯂꯕꯒꯦ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯈꯪꯍꯜꯂꯗꯕꯒꯦ
ꯅꯪꯒꯤ ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯜꯅꯥ ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯃꯗꯥ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯃꯗꯤ ꯎꯠꯂꯤ। ꯃꯁꯤ ꯈꯪꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯈꯜ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯥ ꯑꯣꯏꯗꯦ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯜ ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯅꯥ ꯐꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯗꯦ: ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯄꯅꯤ ꯃꯌꯥꯝ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯐꯕ ꯈꯟꯅꯕ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯕꯗꯤ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯑꯅꯤꯗꯥ ꯂꯣꯏꯔꯤ। ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯜ-4 ꯊꯤꯕꯗꯤ ꯈꯪꯅꯕ ꯑꯐꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯁꯨ, ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯔꯕꯗꯤ ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕꯗꯒꯤ ꯈ꯭ꯋꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯃꯈꯥꯗꯥ ꯐꯪꯂꯤ।
ꯃꯐꯝ ꯑꯁꯤꯗꯥ ꯌꯥꯎꯔꯤꯕ ꯄ꯭ꯂꯦꯌꯔꯁꯤꯡꯗꯤ ꯆꯌꯣꯜ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯥ ꯂꯥꯛꯄꯁꯤꯡꯅꯤ, ꯈꯟꯗꯣꯛꯈꯤꯕ ꯃꯤꯌꯥꯝ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯥ ꯅꯠꯇꯦ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯆꯌꯣꯜ ꯑꯃꯗꯒꯤ ꯑꯃꯗꯥ ꯍꯣꯡꯏ। ꯃꯌꯥꯝ ꯈꯪꯈꯤꯕ ꯆꯥꯂꯦꯟꯖꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯅꯤꯌꯃꯁꯤꯡ ꯑꯈꯟꯅꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ: Financial Timesꯅꯥ ꯆꯨꯝꯅꯥ ꯅꯝꯕ ꯅꯝꯕꯔ ꯈꯛꯇꯃꯛ ꯌꯥꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ Politiken ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ Spektrumꯅꯥ ꯗꯤꯁꯤꯃꯦꯜꯁꯨ ꯌꯥꯈꯤ [2][3]।
ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯥꯗꯣꯛꯄ ꯋꯥꯍꯪꯁꯤꯡ
ꯃꯌꯥꯝꯒꯤ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯒꯤ 2/3 ꯊꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯌ ꯀꯔꯤꯅꯣ?
ꯃꯌꯥꯝꯒꯤ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯒꯤ 2/3 ꯊꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯈꯨꯠꯂꯥꯌ ꯈꯨꯗꯣꯡꯆꯕ ꯑꯃꯠꯇꯥ ꯂꯩꯇꯦ। ꯒꯦꯝ ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯤꯡꯂꯣꯟꯅꯥ 0 ꯍꯥꯌꯏ, ꯃꯔꯃꯗꯤ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯅꯥ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯃꯛꯀꯤ ꯈ꯭ꯋꯥꯏꯗꯒꯤ ꯈ꯭ꯋꯥꯏꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯔꯝ ꯂꯩ। ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯑꯍꯨꯝ ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ ꯑꯅꯤ ꯊꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗꯥ ꯂꯣꯏꯔꯤ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅꯥ ꯄꯥꯊꯣꯛꯈꯤꯕ ꯆꯥꯂꯦꯟꯖꯁꯤꯡꯗꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯄꯥꯛꯈꯤꯕ ꯅꯝꯕꯔꯗꯤ 13 ꯗꯒꯤ 21.6 ꯐꯥꯎꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ [2][3]। ꯑꯐꯕ ꯊꯤꯕꯗꯤ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯒꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯅꯥ ꯅꯪꯅꯥ ꯈꯟꯕ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯄꯨꯡꯒꯤ 2/3 ꯑꯣꯏ।
0 ꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯕꯥ ꯀꯔꯝꯅꯥ ꯐꯪꯗꯕꯒꯦ?
0 ꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯏꯕꯥ ꯐꯪꯒꯅꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯗꯤ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯂꯣꯏꯅꯥ 0 ꯐꯥꯎꯕ ꯍꯟꯗꯣꯛꯂꯕ ꯈꯛꯇꯗꯥꯅꯤ। ꯑꯆꯧꯕ ꯆꯥꯂꯦꯟꯖꯁꯤꯡꯗꯥ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯀꯌꯥꯅꯥ 33 ꯅꯠꯔꯒꯥ 22 ꯃꯃꯥꯡ ꯊꯤꯏ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯈꯔꯅꯥ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ ꯅꯝꯕꯔ ꯊꯤꯏ, ꯃꯁꯤꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕꯗꯥ ꯄꯨꯈꯠꯂꯤ। Financial Timesꯒꯤ ꯆꯥꯂꯦꯟꯖꯗꯥ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯃꯄꯨꯡ 18.9 ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯒꯤ ꯑꯋꯥꯡꯕ 12.6 ꯑꯣꯏꯈꯤ, 0 ꯗꯒꯤ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯂꯥꯞꯅꯥ [2]।
“ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯜ 2 ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯥ” ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯅꯥ ꯀꯔꯤ ꯍꯥꯌꯕꯒꯦ?
ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯜ-2 ꯊꯤꯅꯕꯅꯥ ꯑꯇꯣꯞꯄ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏꯁꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗꯥ ꯈꯟꯒꯅꯤ (ꯃꯈꯣꯌꯅꯥ 33 ꯃꯃꯥꯡ ꯊꯤꯒꯅꯤ) ꯍꯥꯌꯅꯥ ꯈꯟꯅꯩ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯑꯃꯥ ꯃꯃꯥꯡꯗꯥ ꯊꯤꯏ: 33ꯒꯤ 2/3 ꯑꯗꯤ 22 ꯒꯥ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯩ। Helibrain ꯒꯦꯝꯗꯥ, ꯅꯪꯒꯤ ꯊꯤꯕ 50, 33, 22, 15, 10 ꯍꯥꯌꯕ ꯁꯤꯟꯗꯥ ꯀꯔꯝꯅꯥ ꯃꯥꯟꯅꯕꯒꯦ ꯃꯗꯨ ꯌꯦꯡꯗꯨꯅꯥ ꯂꯦꯚꯦꯜ ꯈꯟꯅꯩ [1]।
ꯑꯩ ꯑꯃꯨꯛꯍꯟꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯒꯦꯕ꯭ꯔꯥ?
ꯌꯥꯏ, ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ ꯆꯌꯣꯜ ꯑꯃꯗꯥ ꯅꯪꯒꯤ ꯑꯍꯥꯟꯕ ꯊꯤꯕ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗꯗꯥ ꯂꯧꯒꯅꯤ। ꯃꯇꯨꯡꯗꯥ ꯊꯤꯕꯁꯤꯡ ꯁꯤꯟꯗꯥ ꯎꯠꯂꯒꯅꯤ, ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ ꯂꯧꯗꯦ, ꯃꯔꯝ ꯑꯗꯨꯅꯥ ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏ ꯑꯃꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯊꯤꯅꯥ ꯐꯂꯥꯐꯜ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯍꯣꯡꯍꯜꯂꯣꯏ। ꯑꯅꯧꯕ ꯔꯥꯎꯟꯗ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡ ꯅꯤꯡꯊꯧꯀꯥꯕꯥꯗꯥ ꯍꯧꯏ।
Helibrain 2/3 ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯑꯆꯨꯝꯕꯗꯥ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯂꯩꯇꯕ꯭ꯔꯥ?
ꯍꯣꯌ, Helibrain 2/3 ꯒꯦꯝ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯆꯌꯣꯜ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯐꯂꯥꯐꯜ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯂꯩꯇꯩ: ꯃꯤꯡ ꯌꯥꯎꯗꯕꯥ, ꯏꯃꯦꯜ ꯌꯥꯎꯗꯕꯥ, ꯄꯥꯏꯁꯥ ꯄꯤꯗꯕꯥ। Helibrainꯅꯥ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯑꯦꯞ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯒꯤ ꯄꯥꯏꯁꯥ ꯐꯪꯏ, ꯑꯦꯞ ꯑꯗꯨꯗꯥ ꯃꯐꯝ ꯂꯩꯇꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯄꯥꯏꯁꯥꯒꯤ ꯄ꯭ꯂꯥꯟꯁꯤꯡ ꯂꯩ; ꯌꯥꯕꯗꯥ ꯑꯦꯞ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯇꯥꯏꯕ ꯃꯊꯧ ꯇꯥꯗꯦ।
ꯃꯔꯤ ꯂꯩꯅꯕ ꯄꯔꯤꯛꯁꯥꯁꯤꯡ
- ꯕꯦꯂꯨꯟ ꯑꯥꯏꯁꯤꯡ ꯈꯦꯟꯅꯕ ꯒꯦꯝꯄꯝꯞ ꯇꯧꯕꯥ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯄꯤꯕꯥ ꯐꯪꯏ, ꯑꯗꯨꯕꯨ ꯄꯝꯞ ꯇꯧꯕꯥ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯅꯥ ꯕꯦꯂꯨꯟ ꯑꯗꯨ ꯄꯣꯛꯄꯥ ꯌꯥꯏ; ꯅꯪ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯑꯥꯏꯁꯤꯡ ꯂꯧꯕꯒꯦ꯫
- ꯃꯤꯑꯣꯏꯃꯌꯥꯝꯒꯤ ꯃꯌꯥꯝ ꯂꯩꯕ ꯀꯥꯔꯠ ꯒꯦꯝꯑꯀꯛꯅꯕ ꯂꯩꯇꯕ ꯃꯇꯪꯗꯥ ꯀꯅꯥꯒꯤ ꯊꯧꯗꯥ ꯄꯤꯕꯒꯦ ꯍꯥꯏꯅꯥ ꯅꯪ ꯀꯌꯥ ꯅꯣꯡꯃꯥ ꯈꯪꯕꯒꯦ꯫
- ꯃꯦꯇ꯭ꯔꯤꯛꯁ ꯊꯤꯅꯕ ꯄꯔꯤꯛꯁꯥꯑꯃꯣꯝ ꯑꯃꯗꯥ ꯂꯩꯕꯥ ꯑꯀꯛꯅꯕ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯊꯧꯗꯥ ꯌꯥꯝꯅꯥ ꯁꯤꯖꯤꯟꯅꯕꯥ ꯅꯪ ꯀꯔꯝꯅꯥ ꯌꯥꯕꯒꯦ꯫
ꯐ꯭ꯔꯤ ꯃꯃꯥꯡ ꯊꯤꯕꯒꯤ ꯄꯔꯤꯛꯁꯥ 43 ꯄꯨꯝꯅꯃꯛ ꯌꯦꯡꯉꯨ
ꯅꯨꯃꯤꯠ ꯈꯨꯗꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯁꯤꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡ ꯏꯅꯕ ꯄꯥꯝꯕ꯭ꯔꯥ? Helibrain ꯑꯦꯞ (ꯃꯇꯃꯁꯤꯡꯁꯤꯗꯥ English ꯈꯛꯇꯥ)ꯇꯥ ꯐ꯭ꯔꯤ ꯄ꯭ꯂꯥꯟ ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ ꯄꯩꯁꯥ ꯂꯩꯕꯥ ꯄ꯭ꯂꯥꯟꯁꯤꯡ ꯂꯩ꯫
ꯃꯥꯏ ꯑꯁꯤ ꯍꯧꯔꯛꯐꯝ ꯄꯤꯌꯨ: ꯃꯌꯥꯝꯒꯤ ꯑꯣꯏꯔꯤꯕ ꯑꯣꯏꯕꯒꯤ 2/3 ꯊꯤꯌꯨ. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/mni/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.
How this test works
This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.
Version 1 · Cite this test:
Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods
ꯃꯔꯣꯜ
- Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
- Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (numbers from the 1999 working paper: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
- Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
- Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
- Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
- Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
- Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031
ꯃꯁꯤ ꯂꯦꯞꯅꯕ ꯃꯑꯣꯡ: ꯃꯊꯛꯇꯥ ꯄꯤꯔꯤꯕꯥ ꯊꯤꯖꯤꯟꯕꯁꯤꯡꯒꯤ ꯃꯇꯨꯡ ꯏꯅꯅꯥ Helibrain ꯇꯤꯝꯅꯥ ꯏꯕꯅꯤ, ꯑꯃꯁꯨꯡ Robert(English)ꯅꯥ (নভেম্বর 4, 2026ꯗꯥ) ꯌꯦꯡꯁꯤꯟꯈꯤ꯫ ꯃꯐꯝꯁꯤꯡ ꯍꯣꯡꯂꯕꯥ ꯃꯇꯃꯗꯥ ꯑꯩꯈꯣꯌꯅꯥ ꯃꯁꯤ ꯑꯃꯨꯛ ꯍꯣꯡꯗꯣꯀꯏ꯫