Gerageza 2/3 vy'ikigereranyo

Hitamwo inomero. Uwutsinda ni uwuri hafi cane ya 2/3 vy'ikigereranyo c'inomero z'abantu bose muri iyi ndwi. Ni ubuntu, nta kwiyandikisha.

Vyanditswe n'umugwi wa HelibrainVyasuzumwe na Robert(Icongereza), umunyeshure w'ibijanye n'ubugenge bw'ibinyabuzima ku rwego rwa dogitoraVyashizwe ahabona Vyasubiye gusuzumwa ubwa nyuma

Uko wosoma igisubizo cawe

  • Urwego rwawe rwerekana intambwe zingahe imbere wiyumviriye. Inomero wegereye 50 ni urwego 0: ntiwiyumviriye ivyo abandi bazokora. Iyo wegereye 33 ni urwego 1: "abantu bazohitamwo hafi 50". Iyo wegereye 22 ni urwego 2: "abantu bazokwiyumvira intambwe imwe imbere". Intambwe yose ni 2/3 y'iyayibanjirije [1].
  • Inyishu y'inyigisho y'ivy'ubutunzi n'ibikorwa ni 0. Iyo abantu bose biyumvira gushika ku mpera, inomero yose yohora igabanuka gushika kuri 0. Abakina mu buzima busanzwe ntibabigenza gutyo, ni co gituma 0 itigeze itsinda mu marushanwa yo ku mugaragaro [1][2].
  • Ntishobora gutsinda: inomero irenga 66,7 ntishobora gutsinda, kuko naho abantu bose batora 100, inomero igenderwako yoba 66,7.
  • Uwatsinze muri iyi ndwi azoboneka igihe ikiringo kirangiye (ikiringo cose ni indwi imwe, kuva ku wa mbere gushika ku w'iyinga, UTC). Ntiduha abantu ikigereranyo kiboneka ako kanya imbere y'uko birangira: vyohava vyonona urukino. Kugira ngo ikiringo kigire igisubizo, hakenewe abakinyi nibura 30.

Ni iyihe nomero nziza yo gutora?

Nta nomero imwe ihora ari nziza: bivana n'ivyo abandi bose batoye. Mu marushanwa manini yo ku mugaragaro, inomero igenderwako yagiye hagati nka 13 na 22. Abasomyi ba Financial Times batoye ikigereranyo ca 18,9, rero inomero igenderwako yari 12,6 [2]. Mu marushanwa yo mu kinyamakuru co muri Danemark, aho abasomyi bari 19.196, ikigereranyo cari 32,4 kandi inomero igenderwako yari 21,6 [3].

Igishushanyo c'inkingi: ikigereranyo c'inomero zatowe n'inomero zigenderwako mu marushanwa ane yasohowe. Ikigeragezo co muri laboratwari 1995: ikigereranyo 36.7, inomero igenderwako 24.5. Politiken 2005: ikigereranyo 32.4, inomero igenderwako 21.6. Spektrum 1997: ikigereranyo 22.1, inomero igenderwako 14.7. Financial Times 1997: ikigereranyo 18.9, inomero igenderwako 12.6.
Igishushanyo 1. Ikigereranyo c'inomero zatowe hamwe n'inomero ya 2/3 igenderwako mu marushanwa ane yasohowe. Amakuru: Nagel 1995, ikiringo ca mbere, abanyeshure 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, abasomyi 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, abasomyi 2,728, na Financial Times 1997, abasomyi 1,476 [2].

Vuga uru rupapuro: Gerageza 2/3 vy'ikigereranyo. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/rn/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Ibintu nyamukuru vuba

  • Ico vyerekana: intambwe zingahe imbere wiyumvira ku vyo abandi bantu bazokora. Abahinga mu vy'ubutunzi bita ivyo kwiyumvira ku rwego-k [1][4].
  • Ikigeragezo kizwi: mu kiringo ca mbere c'inyigisho ya Rosemarie Nagel yo mu 1995, abanyeshure batoye ikigereranyo ca 36,7, kandi inomero zatowe cane zari hafi ya 33 na 22 [1].
  • Amarushanwa manini: abasomyi 1.476 ba Financial Times batoye ikigereranyo ca 18,9 (inomero yatsinze yari 13), abasomyi 19.196 ba Politiken na bo batoye ikigereranyo ca 32,4 [2][3].
  • Kureshwa na 33: mu rukino rw'ikinyamakuru New York Times rwo mu 2015, rwakurikiwe n'abasomyi nka 56,000, 33 ni yo nomero yatowe cane [5].
  • Inkomoko y'iki ciyumviro: umuhinga mu vy'ubutunzi John Maynard Keynes yagereranije isoko ry'imigabane n'ihiganwa ry'ubwiza, aho utsinda uhisemwo isura abandi bazohitamwo [6].

Uko urukino rukinwa

  1. Hitamwo inomero yose iri hagati ya 0 na 100, hanyuma uyemeze.
  2. Inomero zatowe n'abantu bose muri iyi ndwi ziragereranywa igihe ikiringo kirangiye, maze inomero igenderwako ikaba 2/3 vy'ico kigereranyo.
  3. Uwutoye inomero iri hafi cane ni we atsinda. Iyo banganya, barasangira intsinzi. Ku wa mbere, urubuga rwerekana abakinyi bo mu ndwi iheze, ikigereranyo, inomero igenderwako, inomero yatsinze n'ukuntu inomero yose yatowe.

Muri buri kiringo, umuntu wese abarwako akeka kamwe gusa. Tubara akeka kamwe kuri mucukumbuzi imwe no ku nzira imwe ya internet, rero abantu basangiye urubuga rumwe (nk'ishure, ibiro canke umuryango) baharurwa rimwe gusa mu ndwi. Akeka ka kabiri ntikabarwa. Uhejeje gutora, urubuga rukwereka aho inomero yawe iri ku rutonde rw'intambwe zo kwiyumvira n'ukuntu yari kuba yagenze mu marushanwa azwi yavuzwe aho hejuru.

Ico urukino rupima n'aho rwavuye

Abahinga mu vy'ubutunzi bita uru rukino ihiganwa ry'ubwiza p, aho p = 2/3 hano. Rosemarie Nagel yarumenyesheje abantu cane nk'ikigeragezo co muri laboratwari mu 1995 [1]. Ico yasanze: abantu ntibiyumvira gushika kuri 0, kandi ntibatora uko biboneye ata co bisunze. Benshi bahagarara inyuma y'intambwe imwe canke zibiri za "bo biyumvira ko jewe niyumvira".

Ico ciyumviro c'uko abantu biyumvira intambwe nke gusa ku bandi ni co catumye habaho uburyo bw'ivyiyumviro vy'ubuhinga buzwi nk'urwego-k hamwe n'uburyo bw'urutonde rw'ubwenge [4][7]. Amarushanwa yo mu binyamakuru yakurikiye, yose afise abasomyi ibihumbi, yerekanye izo ntambwe nyene kuri 33 na 22, hakaba n'umugwi watoye 0 canke 1 [2].

Ivyo uru rukino rushobora kutubwira n'ivyo rudashobora

Urwego rwawe rusigura akeka kamwe mu rukino rumwe. Ntirupima ubwenge, kandi urwego rwo hejuru ntirusigura ko ari rwiza kuruta: uwutsinda ni uwutegereye neza ivyo abantu benshi bazohitamwo, kandi abantu benshi bahagarara ku ntambwe imwe canke zibiri. Akeka ko ku rwego 4 gashobora kuba karimwo ivyiyumviro vyiza, ariko akenshi kakarangirira munsi y'inomero igenderwako.

Abakinyi b'aha ni abantu baza kuri uru rubuga muri iyo ndwi, si umugwi uhoraho, rero inomero igenderwako irahinduka uko indwi zikurikirana. Amarushanwa azwi yakoresheje amategeko atandukanye gatoyi: Financial Times yemera inomero zose gusa, Politiken na Spektrum na vyo bikemera inomero z'uduce [2][3].

Ibibazo bikunda kubazwa

Inyishu yo gutora mu rukino rwa 2/3 vy'ikigereranyo ni iyihe?

Urukino rwo gutora 2/3 vy'ikigereranyo nta nyishu ihoraho rufise. Inyigisho y'ivy'ubutunzi ivuga 0, kuko umukinyi wese afise impamvu yo gutora hasi kurusha abandi bose. Ariko abantu bo mu buzima busanzwe bahagarara inyuma y'intambwe imwe canke zibiri, rero mu marushanwa yasohowe inomero yatsinze yari hagati ya 13 na 21.6 [2][3]. Inomero nziza yo gutora ni 2/3 vy'ivyo wiyumvira ko abandi bazotora nk'ikigereranyo.

Kubera iki 0 idatsinda?

0 yotsinda gusa iyo hafi abantu bose biyumvira gushika ku mpera. Mu marushanwa yo mu buzima busanzwe, abantu benshi batoye hafi 33 canke 22, abandi na bo batoye inomero nini, ivyo bikaduza ikigereranyo. Mu marushanwa ya Financial Times, ikigereranyo cari 18,9 n'inomero igenderwako yari 12,6, biri kure ya 0 [2].

Bisigura iki kuvuga ngo "uwiyumvira ku rwego 2"?

Uwiyumvira ku rwego 2 yitega ko abandi biyumvira intambwe imwe imbere (bazotora hafi 33), na we akiyumvira iyindi ntambwe: 2/3 vya 33 ni nka 22. Mu rukino rwa Helibrain, urwego rwawe ni intambwe yo ku rutonde (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) inomero yawe yegereye cane [1].

Noba nshobora gukina incuro zirenze imwe?

Ego, ariko akeka kawe ka mbere gusa muri iyo ndwi ni ko kabarwa muri ico kiringo. Utundi tuzoboneka ku rutonde rw'intambwe, ariko ntiziharurwa, rero nta muntu ashobora guhindura igisubizo mu gutora incuro nyinshi. Ikiringo gishasha gitangura buri wa mbere.

Urukino rwa 2/3 rwa Helibrain ni ubuntu koko?

Ego. Urukino rwa 2/3 rwa Helibrain n'ibisubizo vyose vya buri ndwi ni ubuntu: nta kwiyandikisha, nta imeyili, nta kuriha. Helibrain ironka amafaranga biciye muri porogaramu yayo, ifise uburyo bw'ubuntu n'ubwishurwa; ntukeneye iyo porogaramu kugira ngo ukine.

Ibipimo bifitaniye isano

Raba ibipimo vyose vy'ubwonko ku buntu: 43

Wipfuza kubikora buri musi? Porogarama ya Helibrain (ubu iri mu congereza gusa) ifise uburyo bwo gukoresha ku buntu n'uburyo bwo kuriha.

Vuga uru rupapuro: Gerageza 2/3 vy'ikigereranyo. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/rn/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Aho amakuru yavuye

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (numbers from the 1999 working paper: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Ukuntu twateguye uru rupapuro: rwanditswe n'umugwi wa Helibrain hisunzwe ubushakashatsi bwavuzwe aho haruguru, hanyuma rusuzumwa na Robert(Icongereza) (umunyeshure w'ibijanye n'ubugenge bw'ibinyabuzima ku rwego rwa dogitora) kuri 4 Munyonyo 2026. Turaruhindura iyo amakuru y'inkomoko ahindutse.