Teebereza 2/3 ku Kigero

Londa ennamba. Awangula ye aba asemberera 2/3 eky'ekigero ky'ennamba z'abantu bonna mu wiiki eno. gwa bwereere, teweetaaga kwewandiisa.

Byawandiikibwa ttiimu ya HelibrainKeekenneenyezeddwa Robert(Olungereza), eyeetegekera diguli ya PhD mu biophysicsKyafulumizibwa Kyekenneenyezeddwa omulundi ogwasembayo

Engeri y'okutegeera ebivudde mu kuzannya

  • Omutendera gwo gulaga ebitendera bimeka bye walowoozaako mu maaso. Okuteebereza okumpi ne 50 kiba mutendera 0: tolowoozezza ku balala. Okumpi ne 33 kiba mutendera 1: "abantu bajja kuteebereza nga 50". Okumpi ne 22 kiba mutendera 2: "abantu bajja kulowoozaako ekitendera kimu mu maaso". Buli kitendera kiba 2/3 eky'ekyo ekikikulembera [1].
  • Ekiddamu mu ndowooza y'emizannyo ye 0. Singa buli muntu alowooza okutuuka ku nkomerero, buli kuteebereza kwandigenda kukendeera okutuuka ku 0. Abazannyi abatuufu tebakikola, n'olwekyo 0 terawangulanga mpaka za bantu bonna [1][2].
  • Tekiyinza kuwangula: okuteebereza okusinga 66.7 tekuyinza kuwangula, kubanga ne bwe kiba nti buli muntu ateebereza 100, ekigendererwa kiba 66.7.
  • Awangudde mu wiiki eno alagibwa oluzannya bwe luggwaako (buli luzannya lwa wiiki emu, okuva ku Mmande okutuuka ku Ssande, UTC). Tetulaga kigero ekiriwo mu kiseera ekyo nga oluzannya terunnaggwa: kyandibulizza omuzannyo. Oluzannya lirina okubaamu abazannyi waakiri 30 okusobola okuba n'ekivuddemu.

Ennamba ki esinga obulungi okuteebereza?

Tewali nnamba emu esinga obulungi: kisinziira ku nteebereza y'abantu abalala. Mu mpaka ennene ez'abantu bonna, ekigendererwa kyatuuka wakati wa 13 ne 22. Abasomi ba Financial Times baafuna ekigero kya 18.9, n'olwekyo ekigendererwa kyali 12.6 [2]. Mu mpaka z'empapula z'amawulire eza Denmark, abasomi 19,196, ekigero kyali 32.4 ate ekigendererwa 21.6 [3].

Ekifaananyi eky'emiggo: ekigero ky'enteebereza n'ekigendererwa mu mpaka nnya ezafulumizibwa. Okunoonyereza mu laabu 1995: ekigero 36.7, ekigendererwa 24.5. Politiken 2005: ekigero 32.4, ekigendererwa 21.6. Spektrum 1997: ekigero 22.1, ekigendererwa 14.7. Financial Times 1997: ekigero 18.9, ekigendererwa 12.6.
Ekifaananyi 1. Ekigero ky'enteebereza n'ekigendererwa kya 2/3 mu mpaka nnya ezafulumizibwa. Ebivaamu: Nagel 1995, oluzannya olusooka, abayizi 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, abasomi 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, abasomi 2,728, ne Financial Times 1997, abasomi 1,476 [2].

Juliza olupapula luno: Teebereza 2/3 ku Kigero. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/lg/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Ebikulu mu bufunze

  • Kye kiraga: ebitendera bimeka bye walowooza mu maaso ku ekyo abantu abalala kye bajja okukola. Abeekenneenya eby'enfuna bayita kino endowooza ya level-k [1][4].
  • Okugezesa okwa bulijjo: mu luzannya olusooka olw'okunoonyereza kwa Rosemarie Nagel mu 1995, abayizi baateebereza ekigero kya 36.7, ate enteebereza ezisinga okuddiŋŋana zaali kumpi ne 33 ne 22 [1].
  • Empaka ennene: abasomi ba Financial Times 1,476 baafuna ekigero kya 18.9 (enteebereza eyawangula yali 13), ate abasomi ba Politiken 19,196 baafuna ekigero kya 32.4 [2][3].
  • Okusikiriza kwa 33: mu nkyusa ya New York Times eya 2015 eyazannyibwa abasomi nga 56,000, 33 ye nnamba abantu gye baasinga okuteebereza [5].
  • Ensibuko y'endowooza eno: omunoonyereza ku by'enfuna John Maynard Keynes yageraageranya akatale k'emigabo n'empaka z'obulungi, mw'owangulira ng'olonda obulungi abantu abalala bwe banaalonda [6].

Omuzannyo gukola gutya

  1. Londa ennamba enzijuvu okuva ku 0 okutuuka ku 100 oginyweze.
  2. Enteebereza za buli muntu mu wiiki eno zigattibwa ne zifunibwa ekigero oluzannya bwe luggwa, era ekigendererwa kiba 2/3 eky'ekigero ekyo.
  3. Awasinga okumpi ku kigendererwa awangula. Abateebereza kye kimu bagabana obuwanguzi. Ku Mmande, omuko gulaga abazannyi ba wiiki ewedde, ekigero, ekigendererwa, enteebereza eyawangula n'engeri buli nnamba gye yateeberezebwamu.

Buli muzannyi abalibwa ku kuteebereza kumu mu buli luzannya. Tubala okuteebereza kumu ku buli bulawuzi n'okuteebereza kumu ku buli mukutu gwa yintaneeti, n'olwekyo abantu abakozesa omukutu gumu (essomero, ofiisi oba amaka) babalibwa omulundi gumu mu wiiki. Okuteebereza okw'okubiri tekubalibwa. Amangu ddala ng'omaze okuteebereza, omuko gulaga ennamba yo weeri ku madaala g'endowooza n'engeri gye yandibadde ekola mu mpaka ezimanyiddwa waggulu.

Omuzannyo guno kye gupima n'ensibuko yaagwo

Abeekenneenya eby'enfuna bayita omuzannyo guno empaka z'obulungi eza p, era wano p = 2/3. Rosemarie Nagel yagufuula okugezesa kwa laabu okwamanyika mu 1995 [1]. Bye yazuula: abantu tebalowooza okutuuka ku 0, era tebateebereza mu butamanya. Abasinga bakoma oluvannyuma lw'ebitendera kimu oba bibiri eby'endowooza egamba nti "bbo balowooza nti nze ndowooza".

Endowooza eyo, nti abantu balowooza ku balala okumala ebitendera ebitono, yafuuka emisono gya level-k n'ensengeka y'endowooza ez'emitendera mu kulowooza ku nteekateeka [4][7]. Empaka z'empapula z'amawulire ezaddirira, nga buli emu erina abasomi enkumi n'enkumi, zaalaga ebitendera bye bimu ebya 33 ne 22, wamu n'ekibinja ekyalonda 0 oba 1 [2].

Omuzannyo guno bye gusobola n'bye gutasobola kukutegeeza

Omutendera gwo gunnyonnyola okuteebereza kumu mu muzannyo gumu. Tekipima magezi, era omutendera ogw'ekika ekya waggulu teguba mulungi kusinga: awangula ye ateebereza bulungi ekibiina ky'abantu, ate ekibiina ekyo kitera okukoma ku bitendera kimu oba bibiri. Okuteebereza okw'omutendera 4 kuba kulowooza kwa magezi naye kutera okumalira wansi w'ekigendererwa.

Abazannyi bano be baba bazze ku mukutu mu wiiki eyo, si kibinja kye kimu buli kiseera, n'olwekyo ekigendererwa kikyuka buli wiiki. Empaka ezimanyiddwa zaakozesa amateeka ag'enjawulo katono: Financial Times yakiriza ennamba enzijuvu zokka, ate Politiken ne Spektrum zaakkiriza n'ennamba ez'ekitundu [2][3].

Ebibuuzo ebibuuzibwa ennyo

Ekiddamu kye ki mu kuteebereza 2/3 eky'ekigero?

Okuteebereza 2/3 eky'ekigero tekulina kiddamu kya nteeketeeke. Endowooza y'emizannyo egamba nti 0, kubanga buli muzannyi aba n'ensonga okuteebereza ennamba entono okusinga ey'abantu abalala bonna. Naye abantu abatuufu bakoma oluvannyuma lw'ebitendera kimu oba bibiri, n'olwekyo mu mpaka ezafulumizibwa ennamba eyawangula yali wakati wa 13 ne 21.6 [2][3]. Okuteebereza okusinga obulungi kuba 2/3 eky'ekyo ky'olowooza nti abalala bajja kuteebereza nga kye kigero.

Lwaki 0 tewangula?

0 yandibadde ewangula singa kumpi buli muntu alowooza okutuuka ku nkomerero. Mu mpaka entuufu, abantu bangi bateebereza nga 33 oba 22, ate abamu balonda ennamba ennene, ekireetera ekigero okulinnya. Mu mpaka za Financial Times, ekigero kyali 18.9 ate ekigendererwa 12.6, nga biri wala nnyo ne 0 [2].

Kitegeeza ki okuba "omulowooza ow'omutendera 2"?

Omulowooza ow'omutendera 2 alowooza nti abantu abalala bajja kulowoozaako ekitendera kimu (bajja kuteebereza nga 33), n'ayongerako ekitendera kimu: 2/3 eky'ekigero kya 33 kiri nga 22. Mu muzannyo gwa Helibrain, omutendera gwo gwe guli ku madaala (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) okusinga okumpi n'enteebereza yo [1].

Nsobola okuzannya emirundi egisukka mu gumu?

Yee, naye okuteebereza kwo okwasooka mu buli wiiki kwokka kwe kubalibwa mu luzannya. Okuteebereza okukola oluvannyuma kulagibwa ku madaala, naye tekubalibwa, n'olwekyo tewali asobola kukyusa bivuddemu ng'ateebereza emirundi mingi. Oluzannya olupya lutandika buli Mmande.

Omuzannyo gwa Helibrain ogwa 2/3 ddala gwa bwereere?

Yee. Omuzannyo gwa Helibrain ogwa 2/3 n'ebyava mu mizannyo gya buli wiiki byonna bya bwereere: teweetaaga kwewandiisa, email wadde okusasula. Helibrain efuna ssente okuva mu pulogulaamu yaayo, erina enteekateeka ey'obwereere n'endala ezisasulwa; teweetaaga pulogulaamu eyo okuzannya.

Ebigezo ebikwatagana

Laba ebigezo byonna eby'obwongo eby'obwereere 43

Oyagala okukolako ku kino buli lunaku? Apulikeshoni ya Helibrain (mu Lungereza mu kiseera kino) erina enteekateeka ey'obwereere n'enteekateeka ezisasulwa.

Juliza olupapula luno: Teebereza 2/3 ku Kigero. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/lg/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Ensibuko

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (numbers from the 1999 working paper: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Engeri gye twatondamu omuko guno: gwawandiikibwa ttiimu ya Helibrain nga basinziira ku kunoonyereza okuli waggulu, era ne gukeberebwa Robert(Olungereza) (eyeetegekera diguli ya PhD mu biophysics) nga 4 Novemba 2026. Tugulongoosa ensibuko bwe zikyuka.