Cagela 2/3 wesilinganiso

Khetsa inombolo. Loyinile ngulowo losondzele kakhulu ku-2/3 wesilinganiso sawo wonkhe saleliviki. Kumahhala, awudzingi kubhalisa.

Kubhalwe licembu laHelibrainKubukwe nguRobert(SiNgisi), umfundi locwaninga nge-biophysics alungiselela i-PhDKushicilelwe Kugcine kubukwe

Kufundza umphumela wakho

  • Lizinga lakho liveta kutsi ucabange tinyatselo letingaki uye embili. Kucagela lokusondzele ku-50 kusezingeni 0: awuzange ucabange ngalabanye. Kusondzela ku-33 kusezingeni 1: "bantfu batawucagela cishe ku-50". Kusondzela ku-22 kusezingeni 2: "bantfu batawucabanga tinyatselo letisembili". Tinyatselo ngasinye ngu-2/3 walelo lebelandvule [1].
  • Imphendvulo yethiyori yemidlalo ngu-0. Kube wonkhe umuntfu acabanga kuze kuyofika ekugcineni, konkhe kucagela bekutawuncipha kuye ku-0. Badlali mbamba abakwenti loko, ngako u-0 akakaze awine umncintiswano wemmango [1][2].
  • Angeke uwine: kucagela lokungetulu kwa-66.7 angeke kuwine, ngobe noma wonkhe umuntfu angacagela 100, umgomo utawuba ngu-66.7.
  • Loyinile waleliviki ubonakala nasekuphele umzuliswano (umzuliswano ngamunye liviki, kusukela ngeMsombuluko kuya ngeLisontfo, nge-UTC). Asikhombisi nanini silinganiso sangaleso sikhatsi ngaphambi kwaloko: singonakalisa umdlalo. Umzuliswano udzinga badlali lokungenani 30 kute ube nemphumela.

Nguyiphi inombolo lencono yekuyicagela?

Ayikho inombolo lencono kunato tonkhe: kuya ngaloko lokucagelwa ngulabanye. Emncintiswaneni lomkhulu wemmango, umgomo waba semkhatsini wa-13 na-22. Labo labafundza i-Financial Times baba nesilinganiso sa-18.9, ngako umgomo waba ngu-12.6 [2]. Emncintiswaneni weliphephandzaba laseDenmark, lapho bekunebafundzi labangu-19,196, silinganiso saba ngu-32.4 kantsi umgomo waba ngu-21.6 [3].

Ishadi letinsika: silinganiso sekucagela nemigomo emincintiswaneni lemine leyashicilelwa. Luhlolo lwaselabhorethri lwango-1995: silinganiso 36.7, umgomo 24.5. Politiken 2005: silinganiso 32.4, umgomo 21.6. Spektrum 1997: silinganiso 22.1, umgomo 14.7. Financial Times 1997: silinganiso 18.9, umgomo 12.6.
Umfanekiso 1. Silinganiso sekucagela kanye nemgomo ya-2/3 emincintiswaneni lemine leyashicilelwa. Imininingwane: Nagel 1995, umzuliswano wekucala, bafundzi labangu-67 [1]; Politiken 2005, bafundzi labangu-19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, bafundzi labangu-2,728, ne-Financial Times 1997, bafundzi labangu-1,476 [2].

Caphuna leli khasi: Cagela 2/3 wesilinganiso. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/ss/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Ecinisweni lelisheshako

  • Loko lokuvetwako: kutsi ucabanga tinyatselo letingaki uye embili mayelana naloko lokutawentiwa ngulabanye bantfu. Bosomnotfo bakubita ngekucabanga kwelizinga-k [1][4].
  • Luhlolo loludvumile: emzuliswaneni wekucala weluhlolo lwaRosemarie Nagel lwango-1995, bafundzi bacagela silinganiso sa-36.7, kantsi kucagela lokuvame kakhulu bekusondzele ku-33 naku-22 [1].
  • Imicintiswano lemikhulu: bafundzi be-Financial Times labangu-1,476 baba nesilinganiso sa-18.9 (kucagela lokwanile kwaba ngu-13), kantsi bafundzi be-Politiken labangu-19,196 baba nesilinganiso sa-32.4 [2][3].
  • Kutsandvwa kwa-33: enguqulweni ye-New York Times yanga-2015, leyadlalwa bafundzi labangaba ngu-56,000, inombolo 33 yaba ngiyo leyacagelwa kakhulu [5].
  • Lapho umcondvo uvela khona: sosomnotfo John Maynard Keynes wacatsanisa imakethe yetitoko nemncintiswano webuhle, lapho uwina ngekukhetsa buso labanye labatawubukhetsa [6].

Usebenta kanjani lomdlalo

  1. Khetsa inombolo lephelele kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-100, bese uyayibeka.
  2. Kucagela kwawo wonkhe umuntfu kwaleliviki kuyalinganiswa nasekuvalwa kwemzuliswano, bese umgomo uba ngu-2/3 waleso silinganiso.
  3. Kucagela lokusondzele kakhulu kuyawina. Labacagela lokulinganako babelana ngokunqoba. NgeMsombuluko, lelikhasi liveta badlali beliviki lelendlulile, silinganiso, umgomo, kucagela lokunile kanye nendlela inombolo ngayinye leyacagelwa ngayo.

Kucagela lokukodwa kwemuntfu ngamunye ngiko lokubalwako emzuliswaneni ngamunye. Sibala kucagela lokukodwa ngesiphequluli ngasinye nangekuxhumana kwe-inthanethi ngakunye, ngako bantfu lababelana ngenethiwekhi (sikolo, lihhovisi, umndeni) babalwa kanye ngeliviki. Kucagela kwesibili akubalwa. Ngekushesha nje nawucagela, lelikhasi liveta kutsi inombolo yakho ikusiphi sinyatselo seluhlelo lwekucabanga nekutsi beyitawenta njani kulemicintiswano ledvumile lebalwe ngenhla.

Loko lokukalwako ngumdlalo, nekutsi uvelaphi

Bosomnotfo babita lomdlalo ngekutsi ngumdlalo webuhle we-p, lapho p = 2/3 lapha. Rosemarie Nagel wawenta waba luhlolo lwaselabhorethri loludvumile nga-1995 [1]. Loko lakutfola kutsi: bantfu abacabangi kuze kuyofika ku-0, futsi abakacageli nje ngebumfisha. Labanyenti bema ngemuva kwetinyatselo letisodwa noma letimbili tekutsi "bona bacabanga kutsi mine ngicabangani".

Lomcondvo wekutsi bantfu bacabanga tinyatselo letimbalwa kuphela ngalabanye, waba sisekelo setibonelo tekucabanga kwelizinga-k kanye netesigaba temakhono engcondvo ekuhleleni emasu [4][7]. Imicintiswano yemaphephandzaba leyalandzela, ngayinye inebafundzi labatinkhulungwane, yaveta tona leto tinyatselo ku-33 naku-22, kanye nelicembu lelakhetsa u-0 noma u-1 [2].

Loko longakutjela nalongakutjeli kona lomdlalo

Lizinga lakho lichaza kucagela kanye emdlalweni munye. Akusiso silinganiso sekuhlakanipha, futsi lizinga lelijulile alisho kutsi ungcono: loyinile ngulowo lobiketela kahle kakhulu loko lokucagelwa licembu, kantsi licembu livame kuma ngemuva kwetinyatselo letisodwa noma letimbili. Kucagela kwelizinga 4 kukhombisa kucabanga lokukhaliphile, kodvwa kuvame kugcina kungaphansi kwemgomo.

Badlali balapha ngulabo labavakashela lelikhasi ngalelo liviki, abasilo licembu lelingashintji, ngako umgomo uyashintja kusuka kulinye liviki kuya kulandzelako. Imithetho yalemicintiswano ledvumile beyihluke kancane: i-Financial Times beyivumela tinombolo letiphelele kuphela, kantsi i-Politiken ne-Spektrum beyivumela tinombolo letinemadesimali [2][3].

Imibuto levame kubutwa

Iyini imphendvulo yekucagela 2/3 wesilinganiso?

Kucagela 2/3 wesilinganiso akunayo imphendvulo yaphakadze. Ithiyori yemidlalo itsi ngu-0, ngobe umdlali ngamunye unesizatfu sekukhetsa inombolo lephansi kunaleyo yabo bonkhe. Kodvwa bantfu mbamba bema ngemuva kwetinyatselo letisodwa noma letimbili, ngako emncintiswaneni leyashicilelwa inombolo leyawinako yaba semkhatsini wa-13 na-21.6 [2][3]. Kucagela lokuncono ngu-2/3 waloko locabanga kutsi labanye batawukucagela njengesilinganiso.

Kungani u-0 angawini?

Uziro angawina kuphela nangabe cishe wonkhe umuntfu acabanga kuze kuyofika ekugcineni. Emncintiswaneni mbamba, bantfu labanyenti bacagela ku-33 noma ku-22, futsi labanye bacagela tinombolo letisetulu, lokuphakamisa silinganiso. Emncintiswaneni we-Financial Times, silinganiso saba ngu-18.9 kantsi umgomo waba ngu-12.6, lokukhashane kakhulu na-0 [2].

Kusho kutsini kuba "ngumcabangi welizinga 2"?

Umcabangi welizinga 2 ulindzele kutsi labanye bacabange sinyatselo sinye baye embili (batawucagela cishe ku-33), bese naye uya embili ngesinyatselo sinye: 2/3 wa-33 ucishe abe ngu-22. Emdlalweni we-Helibrain, lizinga lakho lisinyatselo eluhlelweni (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) lapho kucagela kwakho kusondzele khona kakhulu [1].

Ngingadlala tikhatsi letingetulu kwesisodwa?

Yebo, kodvwa kucagela kwakho kwekucala kuphela kwalelo nalelo liviki lokubalwako emzuliswaneni. Kucagela lokulandzelako kuyavela eluhlelweni, kodvwa akubalwa, ngako kute longashintja umphumela ngekucagela tikhatsi letinyenti. Umzuliswano lomusha ucala njalo ngeMsombuluko.

Umdlalo we-Helibrain 2/3 umahhala ngempela yini?

Yebo. Umdlalo we-Helibrain 2/3 nayo yonkhe imiphumela yamasontfo onkhe kumahhala: awudzingi kubhalisa, i-imeyili noma kukhokha. Helibrain yenta imali nge-app yayo, leneluhlelo lwamahhala kanye netinhlelo letikhokhelwako; awudzingi i-app kute udlale.

Luhlolo loluhlobene

Bona tonkhe tihlolo tengcondvo letingu-43 temahhala

Ufuna kusebenta ngaloku onkhe malanga? Uhlelo lwe-Helibrain (lusatfolakala ngesiNgisi kuphela) luneluhlelo lwamahhala kanye netinhlelo letikhokhelwako.

Caphuna leli khasi: Cagela 2/3 wesilinganiso. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/ss/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Imithombo

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (tinombolo letivela ephepheni lekucala langa-1999: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Indlela lelikhasi lelakhiwe ngayo: libhalwe licembu laHelibrain kusetjentiswa tifundvo letibalwe ngenhla, lase libukwe nguRobert(SiNgisi) (umfundi locwaninga nge-biophysics alungiselela i-PhD) nga-11/4/2026. Silibuyeketa nakushintja imtfombo.