Kumbetela 2/3 ya Xiringaniso

Hlawula nomboro. Loyi a tshinelelaka swinene eka 2/3 ya xiringaniso xa vanhu hinkwavu wa vhiki leri hi yena a hlulaka. I mahala, a swi lavi ku tsarisa.

Hi ntlawa wa HelibrainYi kambisisiwile hi Robert(Xinghezi), loyi a dyondzaka doctorate ya biophysicsYi kandziyisiwile Yi kambisisiwile ro hetelela hi

Ndlela yo hlaya mbuyelo wa wena

  • Levhele ya wena yi komba leswaku u ehlekete magoza mangani u ya mahlweni. Loko ku mbumbeteriwa ekusuhi na 50, i levhele ya 0: a wu ehleketanga hi van'wana. Eku sukela ekusuhi na 33 i levhele ya 1: "vanhu va ta mbumbetera kwalomu ka 50". Eku sukela ekusuhi na 22 i levhele ya 2: "vanhu va ta ehleketa va ya goza rin'wana u ya mahlweni". Goza rin'wana ni rin'wana i 2/3 ya leri nga hundza [1].
  • Nhlamulo ya thiyori ya mitlangu i 0. Loko vanhu hinkwavu va ehleketa ku fikela emakumu, mbumbetelo wun'wana ni wun'wana a wu ta ya wu hunguteka ku fikela eka 0. Vatlangi va xiviri a va endli tano, kutani 0 a yi si hlula eka ntlangu wa vanhu [1][2].
  • A swi nge hluli: mbumbetelo lowu tlulaka 66.7 a wu nge hluli, hikuva hambiloko vanhu hinkwavu va mbumbeterile 100, xikongomelo a xi ta va 66.7.
  • Muhluri wa vhiki leri u ta humelela loko ntlangu wu hela (ntlangu wun'wana ni wun'wana i vhiki, ku sukela hi Musumbhunuku ku ya hi Sonto, UTC). A hi kombisi xiringaniso xa nkarhi wa sweswi ku nga si hela, hikuva swi ta onha ntlangu. Ntlangu wu fanele wu va ni vatlangi vo ringana 30 leswaku ku va ni mbuyelo.

Hi yihi nomboro leyinene yo yi mbumbetela?

A ku na nomboro yin'we leyinene: swi titshege hi leswi vanhu lavan'wana va swi mbumbetelaka. Eka mintlangu leyikulu ya vanhu, xikongomelo xi ve kwalomu ka 13 ku ya eka 22. Vahlayi va Financial Times va ve ni xiringaniso xa 18.9, kutani xikongomelo xi ve 12.6 [2]. Eka ntlangu wa phephahungu ra le Denmark lowu a wu ri ni vahlayi va 19,196, xiringaniso a xi ri 32.4 kasi xikongomelo a xi ri 21.6 [3].

Girafu ya tibara: mbumbetelo wa xiringaniso ni xikongomelo eka mintlangu ya mune leyi kandziyisiweke. Nkambisiso wa le laboratorini wa 1995: xiringaniso 36.7, xikongomelo 24.5. Politiken 2005: xiringaniso 32.4, xikongomelo 21.6. Spektrum 1997: xiringaniso 22.1, xikongomelo 14.7. Financial Times 1997: xiringaniso 18.9, xikongomelo 12.6.
Xifaniso 1. Mbumbetelo wa xiringaniso ni xikongomelo xa 2/3 eka mintlangu ya mune leyi kandziyisiweke. Vuxokoxoko: Nagel 1995, xirhendzevutana xo sungula, swichudeni swa 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, vahlayi va 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, vahlayi va 2,728, na Financial Times 1997, vahlayi va 1,476 [2].

Tsavula tluka leri: Kumbetela 2/3 ya Xiringaniso. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/ts/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Vuxokoxoko bya xihatla

  • Leswi swi swi kombisaka: leswaku u ehleketa magoza mangani u ya mahlweni hi leswi vanhu lavan'wana va nga ta swi endla. Van' ekonomisi va vitana leswi ku ehleketa ka levhele-k [1][4].
  • Ndzavisiso wa khale lowu tivekaka: eka xirhendzevutana xo sungula xa ndzavisiso wa Rosemarie Nagel wa 1995, swichudeni swi mbumbeterile xiringaniso xa 36.7, kasi mbumbetelo lowu a wu tolovelekile swinene a wu ri ekusuhi na 33 na 22 [1].
  • Mintlangu leyikulu: vahlayi va 1,476 va Financial Times va ve ni xiringaniso xa 18.9 (mbumbetelo lowu hluleke a wu ri 13), kasi vahlayi va 19,196 va Politiken va ve ni xiringaniso xa 32.4 [2][3].
  • Ku kokiwa hi 33: eka vuhundzuluxeri bya New York Times bya 2015, laha a ku ri ni vahlayi va kwalomu ka 56,000, 33 a ku ri nomboro leyi vanhu vo tala va yi hlawuleke [5].
  • Laha mianakanyo yi humaka kona: John Maynard Keynes, n' ekonomisi, u fanise makete wa switoko ni mphikizano wa ku saseka laha u hlulaka hi ku hlawula xikandza lexi van'wana va nga ta xi hlawula [6].

Ndlela leyi ntlangu wu tirhaka ha yona

  1. Hlawula nomboro leyi heleleke ku suka eka 0 ku ya eka 100 kutani u yi tiyisisa.
  2. Mbumbetelo wa vanhu hinkwavu wa vhiki leri wu endliwa xiringaniso loko ntlangu wu pfala, kutani xikongomelo i 2/3 ya xiringaniso xexo.
  3. Mbumbetelo lowu tshinelelaka swinene wa hlula. Loko ku ri ni mbumbetelo lowu fanaka, va hlula swin'we. Hi Musumbhunuku, pheji ri komba vatlangi va vhiki leri hundzeke, xiringaniso, xikongomelo, mbumbetelo lowu hluleke ni ndlela leyi nomboro yin'wana ni yin'wana yi mbumbeteriweke ha yona.

Mbumbetelo wun'we wa munhu wu hlayiwa eka ntlangu wun'wana ni wun'wana. Hi hlayela mbumbetelo wun'we eka browser yin'wana ni yin'wana ni mbumbetelo wun'we eka vuhlanganisi bya inthanete byin'wana ni byin'wana, kutani vanhu lava avelanaka netiweke (xikolo, hofisi, ndyangu) va hlayiwa kan'we hi vhiki. Mbumbetelo wa vumbirhi a wu hlayiwi. Endzhaku ka loko u mbumbeterile, pheji ri komba laha nomboro ya wena yi welaka kona eka nxaxamelo wa ku ehleketa ni ndlela leyi a yi ta tirha ha yona eka mintlangu leyi dumeke leyi nga laha henhla.

Leswi ntlangu wu swi pimanisaka ni laha wu humaka kona

Van' ekonomisi va vitana ntlangu lowu ntlangu wa p-beauty contest, laha p = 2/3. Rosemarie Nagel u wu endle ndzavisiso wa le laboratorini lowu dumeke hi 1995 [1]. leswi a swi kumeke: vanhu a va ehleketi ku fikela emakumu ku ya eka 0, naswona a va mbumbeteri hi xihoxo ntsena. Vo tala va yima endzhaku ka goza rin'we kumbe mambirhi ya ku "va ehleketa leswaku mina ndzi ehleketa".

Mianakanyo ya leswaku vanhu va ehleketa magoza yo karhi ntsena hi van'wana, yi hundzuke ma-model ya level-k na cognitive hierarchy ya ku ehleketa hi maqhinga [4][7]. Mintlangu ya tiphephahungu leyi landzeleke, leyi a yi ri ni vahlayi va magidi eka wun'wana ni wun'wana, yi kombise magoza lawa fanaka ya 33 na 22, ku engetela eka ntlawa lowu hlawuleke 0 kumbe 1 [2].

Leswi ntlangu lowu wu nga ku byelaka ni leswi wu nga ku byeliki swona

Levhele ya wena yi hlamusela mbumbetelo wun'we eka ntlangu wun'we. A hi mpimo wa vutlhari, naswona levhele leyi y enteke a yi antswi: loyi a hlulaka hi loyi a mbambelaka kahle ntshungu, naswona ntshungu hi ntolovelo wu yima eka goza rin'we kumbe mambirhi. Mbumbetelo wa levhele ya 4 i ku ehleketa hi vutlhari loku hi ntolovelo ku hetelelaka ku ri ehansi ka xikongomelo.

Vatlangi va laha i vanhu lava endzelaka pheji vhiki rero, a hi ntlawa lowu nga cinciki, kutani xikongomelo xa cinca vhiki ni vhiki. Mintlangu leyi dumeke a yi ri ni milawu leyi hambaneke nyana: Financial Times a yi pfumelela tinomboro leti heleleke ntsena, kasi Politiken na Spektrum a swi pfumelela tinomboro ta xiphemu [2][3].

Swivutiso leswi vutisiwaka ngopfu

Hi yihi nhlamulo ya ku mbumbetela 2/3 ya xiringaniso?

Kumbetela 2/3 ya xiringaniso a swi na nhlamulo leyi nga cinciki. Thiyori ya mitlangu yi vula 0, hikuva mutlangi un'wana ni un'wana u ni xivangelo xo ya ehansi ku hundza lavan'wana hinkwavu. Kambe vanhu va xiviri va yima endzhaku ka goza rin'we kumbe mambirhi, kutani eka mintlangu leyi kandziyisiweke nomboro leyi hluleke a yi ri eka 13 na 21.6 [2][3]. Mbumbetelo wa kahle i 2/3 ya leswi u ehleketaka leswaku van'wana va ta swi mbumbetela hi xiringaniso.

Ha yini 0 yi nga hluli?

Nomboro ya zero a yi ta hlula ntsena loko kwalomu ka vanhu hinkwavu va ehleketa ku fikela emakumu. Eka mintlangu ya xiviri, vanhu vo tala va mbumbetera kwalomu ka 33 kumbe 22, kasi van'wana va hlawula tinomboro letikulu, leswi tlakusaka xiringaniso. Eka ntlangu wa Financial Times, xiringaniso a xi ri 18.9 kasi xikongomelo a xi ri 12.6, ekule swinene na 0 [2].

Swi vula yini ku va "munhu wo ehleketa wa levhele ya 2"?

Munhu wo ehleketa wa levhele ya 2 u langutele leswaku vanhu lavan'wana va ta ehleketa va ya goza rin'we u ya mahlweni (va ta mbumbetera kwalomu ka 33), kutani na yena u ya goza rin'wana: 2/3 ya 33 i kwalomu ka 22. Eka ntlangu wa Helibrain, levhele ya wena i goza leri nga eka nxaxamelo (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) leri mbumbetelo wa wena wu tshinelelaka swinene eka rona [1].

Xana ndzi nga tlanga ku hundza kan'we?

Ina, kambe i mbumbetelo wa wena wo sungula wa vhiki rin'wana ni rin'wana ntsena lowu hlayiwaka eka ntlangu. Mbumbetelo lowu landzelaka wu kombisiwa eka nxaxamelo, kambe a wu hlayiwi, kutani a ku na loyi a nga cincaka mbuyelo hi ku mbumbetera ko tala. Ntlangu lowuntshwa wu sungula hi Musumbhunuku wun'wana ni wun'wana.

Xana ntlangu wa 2/3 wa Helibrain i wa mahala hakunene?

Ina. Ntlangu wa 2/3 wa Helibrain ni mbuyelo wun'wana ni wun'wana wa vhiki i mahala: a ku lavi ku tsarisa, imeyili kumbe ku hakela. Helibrain yi kuma mali hi app ya yona, leyi nga ni pulani ya mahala ni tipulani leti hakeriwaka; a wu boheki ku tirhisa app leswaku u tlanga.

Swikambelo leswi fambelanaka

Vona swikambelo swa byongo swa mahala swa 43 hinkwato

U lava ku tirha hi mhaka leyi siku ni siku? Apu ya Helibrain (ya ha ri hi Xinghezi ntsena) yi ni kungu ra mahala ni makungu lama hakeriwaka.

Tsavula tluka leri: Kumbetela 2/3 ya Xiringaniso. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/ts/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Swihlovo

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (tinomboro leti huma eka phepha ra ndzavisiso ra 1999: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, ndzima 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Ndlela leyi hi endleke pheji leyi ha yona: yi tsariwe hi ntlawa wa Helibrain hi ku tirhisa swikambisiso leswi xaxametiweke laha henhla, kutani yi kambisisiwa hi Robert(Xinghezi) (loyi a dyondzaka doctorate ya biophysics) hi 11/4/2026. Hi yi pfuxeta loko swihlovo swi cinca.