Makim 2/3 bilong Averej

Makim wanpela namba. Man i win em man i makim namba i klostu tru long 2/3 bilong averej bilong olgeta man long dispela wik. Fri, i no gat nid long sainap.

Tim bilong Helibrain i raitimRobert(Tok Inglis) i sekim gen, em i wok long kisim PhD long fisiks bilong laipOl i pablisim long Las taim ol i sekim gen em

Rot bilong ritim risal bilong yu

  • Level bilong yu i soim hamas step yu tingting i go pas. Sapos yu makim namba klostu long 50, dispela em level 0: yu no tingting long ol arapela. Sapos klostu long 33, em level 1: "ol man bai makim klostu long 50". Sapos klostu long 22, em level 2: "ol man bai tingting wanpela step i go pas". Wanwan step em 2/3 bilong step i stap bipo [1].
  • Bekim bilong gem teori em 0. Sapos olgeta man i tingting i go inap pinis, olgeta mak bai go liklik moa inap long 0. Ol man i pilai tru i no save mekim olsem, olsem na 0 i no bin winim wanpela pablik resis [1][2].
  • I no inap win: wanpela mak i antap long 66.7 i no inap win, long wanem sapos olgeta man i makim 100, target bai 66.7.
  • Man i win long dispela wik bai kamap taim raun i pinis (wanwan raun em wanpela wik, Mande i go inap Sande, UTC). Mipela i no save soim averej i stap nau paslain long dispela: dispela bai bagarapim gem. Raun i mas gat i no sot long 30 man bilong kisim risal.

Wanem namba i gutpela long makim?

I no gat wanpela namba tasol i gutpela: em i dipen long mak bilong ol arapela. Long ol bikpela pablik resis, target i stap namel long samting olsem 13 na 22. Ol man bilong ritim Financial Times i gat averej 18.9, olsem na target em 12.6 [2]. Long wanpela resis long niuspepa bilong Denmark, wantaim 19,196 man bilong ritim, averej em 32.4 na target em 21.6 [3].

Piksa bilong ol ban: averej mak na target long 4-pela pablik resis i bin kamapim ol namba. Lab stadi 1995: averej 36.7, target 24.5. Politiken 2005: averej 32.4, target 21.6. Spektrum 1997: averej 22.1, target 14.7. Financial Times 1997: averej 18.9, target 12.6.
Piksa 1. Averej mak na target 2/3 long 4-pela pablik resis i bin kamapim ol namba. Ol namba i kam long: Nagel 1995, namba wan raun, 67 sumatin [1]; Politiken 2005, 19,196 man bilong ritim [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, 2,728 man bilong ritim, na Financial Times 1997, 1,476 man bilong ritim [2].

Makim as bilong dispela pes: Makim 2/3 bilong Averej. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/tpi/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Ol save kwik

  • Em i soim wanem: hamas step yu tingting i go pas long pasin bilong ol arapela man. Ol man bilong ekonomi i kolim dispela tingting level-k [1][4].
  • Taim bipo eksperimen: long namba wan raun bilong stadi bilong Rosemarie Nagel long 1995, ol sumatin i makim 36.7 long averej, na planti mak i stap klostu long 33 na 22 [1].
  • Ol bikpela resis: 1,476 man bilong ritim Financial Times i gat averej 18.9 (mak bilong man i win em 13), na 19,196 man bilong ritim Politiken i gat averej 32.4 [2][3].
  • Pasin bilong laikim 33: long wanpela kain dispela gem long New York Times long 2015, wantaim samting olsem 56,000 man bilong ritim, 33 em mak planti man i makim [5].
  • As bilong dispela tingting: man bilong ekonomi John Maynard Keynes i skelim maket bilong ol sear olsem wanpela resis bilong luk nais, we yu win sapos yu makim fes ol arapela bai makim [6].

Gem i wok olsem wanem

  1. Makim wanpela olgeta namba namel long 0 na 100 na lokim.
  2. Olgeta mak bilong dispela wik bai kaunim averej taim raun i pinis, na target em 2/3 bilong dispela averej.
  3. Mak i klostu tru bai win. Sapos i gat wankain mak, ol man i serim win. Long Mande, pes bai soim ol man i pilai long wik i go pinis, averej, target, mak bilong man i win na olsem wanem ol man i makim olgeta namba.

Wanpela mak bilong wanpela man tasol bai kaun long wanwan raun. Mipela i kaunim wanpela mak long wanwan brausa na wanwan koneksen intanet, olsem na ol man i yusim wankain netwok (skul, ofis o famili) bai kaun wanpela taim long wanpela wik. Namba tu mak i no inap kaun. Bihain tasol long yu makim namba, pes bai soim we namba bilong yu i stap long lata bilong tingting na wanem risal em bai kisim long ol dispela bikpela resis i gat nem mipela kolim antap.

Gem i skelim wanem na em i kamap we

Ol man bilong ekonomi i kolim dispela gem p-beauty contest, na hia p = 2/3. Rosemarie Nagel i mekim dispela i kamap wanpela taim bipo eksperimen bilong lab i gat nem long 1995 [1]. Em i painim olsem: ol man i no tingting i go olgeta inap long 0, na ol i no makim namba nating tu. Planti i stop bihain long wanpela o tupela step bilong tingting olsem "ol i tingting olsem mi tingting".

Dispela tingting, olsem ol man i tingting inap wanpela liklik namba bilong step long ol arapela, i kamap olsem level-k na kognitiv heieraki mak bilong tingting staili [4][7]. Ol resis bilong niuspepa i kamap bihain, wanwan wantaim planti tausen man bilong ritim, i soim gen ol step long 33 na 22, na tu wanpela grup i makim 0 o 1 [2].

Dispela gem inap na i no inap tokim yu long wanem

Level bilong yu i stori long wanpela mak long wanpela gem. Em i no mak bilong save gut, na level i go dip i no makim olsem em i gutpela moa: man i win em man i luksave gut long mak bilong bikpela grup, na bikpela grup i save stop bihain long wanpela o tupela step. Mak bilong level-4 i soim gutpela tingting, tasol planti taim em i go daun moa long target.

Ol man i pilai hia em ol man i kam lukim long dispela wik, ol i no wanpela grup i stap oltaim, olsem na target i senis long wanwan wik. Ol bikpela resis i gat nem i yusim sampela narapela liklik lo: Financial Times i larim ol olgeta namba tasol, na Politiken na Spektrum i larim ol namba i gat dot [2][3].

Planti man i save askim

Wanem bekim bilong makim 2/3 bilong averej?

Makim 2/3 bilong averej i no gat wanpela bekim i stap oltaim. Gem teori i tok 0, long wanem olgeta man bilong pilai i gat as bilong makim liklik moa daun long olgeta arapela. Tasol ol man tru i save stop bihain long wanpela o tupela step, olsem na long ol pablik resis i bin kamapim ol namba, mak bilong man i win i stap namel long 13 na 21.6 [2][3]. Gutpela mak em 2/3 bilong namba yu ting ol arapela bai makim long averej.

Bilong wanem 0 i no save win?

Namba zero bai win sapos klostu olgeta man i tingting i go olgeta daun. Long ol tru resis, planti man i makim klostu long 33 o 22, na sampela i makim ol bikpela namba, dispela i pulim averej i go antap. Long resis bilong Financial Times, averej em 18.9 na target em 12.6, i stap longwe tru long 0 [2].

"Man bilong tingting level 2" i minim wanem?

Man bilong tingting level 2 i ting ol arapela bai tingting wanpela step i go pas (ol bai makim klostu long 33) na em i go wanpela step moa: 2/3 bilong 33 em klostu long 22. Long gem bilong Helibrain, level bilong yu em step long lata (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) we mak bilong yu i klostu tru long en [1].

Mi inap pilai moa long wanpela taim?

Yes, tasol namba wan mak bilong yu long wanwan wik tasol bai kaun long raun. Mak yu givim bihain bai kamap long lata, tasol ol bai no kaun, olsem na i no gat man inap senisim risal taim em i makim planti taim. Nupela raun i save kirap long olgeta Mande.

Tru tru, gem 2/3 bilong Helibrain i fri?

Yes. Gem 2/3 bilong Helibrain na olgeta risal bilong wanwan wik i fri: i no gat nid long sainap, i no gat imeil, i no gat peimen. Helibrain i kisim mani long app bilong en, we i gat fri plen na ol plen bilong baim; yu no nidim app bilong pilai.

Ol narapela tes i gat wankain

Lukim olgeta 43 tes bilong bren fri

Yu laik wok long dispela olgeta de? Aplikesen bilong Helibrain (long nau em i stap long Tok Inglis) i gat plen fri na ol plen yu baim.

Makim as bilong dispela pes: Makim 2/3 bilong Averej. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/tpi/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Ol as bilong ol save

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (ol namba i kam long pepa bilong wok 1999: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Olsem wanem mipela i wokim dispela pes: tim bilong Helibrain i raitim long ol stadi i stap antap, na Robert(Tok Inglis) (kandidet bilong PhD long fisiks bilong laip) i sekim gen long 11/4/2026. Mipela i apdetim taim ol as bilong infomesen i senis.