Taypita 2/3 amuyt'aña

Mä jakhüwi ajllim. Aka semanan taqinakan taypipata 2/3 jak'ankir ajllir jaqiw atipji. Inaki, qillqantasiñani.

Helibrain irnaqirinakanaRobert(Ingles aru) ukawa uñakipawayi, biofísica tuqita doctorado yatiqiri urun mistuyataQhipa kuti urun uñakipata

Kunjamasa yatxatäwim uñstayaña

  • Jumatakix nivelamawa qawqha amuyt'äwinak nayraqatar amuyt'ta uk uñacht'ayi. 50 jak'a ajlliw nivel 0: yaqhanakat jan amuyt'aña. 33 jak'a ajlliw nivel 1: "jaqinakax 50 jak'a ajllipxani". 22 jak'a ajlliw nivel 2: "jaqinakax mä kuti nayraqatar amuyt'apxani". Sapa kutiw nayrïr amuyt'äwit 2/3 ukha [1].
  • Anatawinakan amuyt'äwipan jaysäwipax 0. Taqinis tukuykam amuyt'apxaspa ukhaxa, sapa ajlliw 0 ukaruw jisk'achasispa. Jichha anatañanakax janipuniw ukham lurapkiti, ukatwa 0 janiw mä público atipt'asiwin atipkiti [1][2].
  • Janipuniw atipkaspati: 66.7 sipan juk'amp ajlliw jan atipkaspati, taqinis 100 ajllipkasp ukhasa, puriñax 66.7 ukakiwa.
  • Aka semanan atipt'irixa ronda tukuyäwiw uñstani (sapa rondax mä semanawa, lunes urut domingo urukama, UTC). Janiw jan tukuykasin taypicha uñacht'ayktanti: anatawiw tukuspa. Mä resultado utjañapatakix 30 anatañanakawa munasi.

Kuna jakhüwisa ajlliñax wali askixa?

Janiw mä sapak wali askïr jakhüwix utjkiti: taqinin ajlliwiparjamawa. Jach'a público atipt'asiwinakan puriñax niya 13 ukata 22 ukjakamaw purïna. Financial Times ullirinakax 18.9 ukjaw taypicha ajllipxäna, ukatwa puriñax 12.6 ukänna [2]. Mä Dinamarca markan yatiyir laphi atipt'asiwin 19,196 ullirinakampi, taypichax 32.4 ukänna, puriñasti 21.6 [3].

Pilu gráfico: pusi yatiyat atipt'asiwinakana taypicha ajlliwi ukat puriwi. Laboratorio yant'äwi 1995: taypicha 36.7, puriwi 24.5. Politiken 2005: taypicha 32.4, puriwi 21.6. Spektrum 1997: taypicha 22.1, puriwi 14.7. Financial Times 1997: taypicha 18.9, puriwi 12.6.
Uñacht'äwi 1. Pusi yatiyat atipt'asiwinakana taypicha ajlliwi ukat 2/3 puriwi. Yatiyäwi: Nagel 1995, nayrïr ronda, 67 yatiqiri [1]; Politiken 2005, 19,196 ulliri [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, 2,728 ulliri, ukat Financial Times 1997, 1,476 ulliri [2].

Aka laphi jalsur uñstayam: Taypita 2/3 amuyt'aña. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/ay/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Jank'ak yatiyäwinaka

  • Kunsa uñacht'ayi: yaqhanakax kunsa lurapxani ukat qawqha amuyt'äwinak nayraqatar amuyta. Economistas ukanakax nivel-k amuyt'äwi sasaw sapxi [1][4].
  • Clásico yant'äwi: Rosemarie Nagel 1995 yatiyäwipan nayrïr rondanxa, yatiqirinakax 36.7 ukjaw taypicha ajllipxäna, ukat juk'amp ajllitanakax 33 ukat 22 jak'ankänwa [1].
  • Jach'a atipt'asiwinaka: 1,476 Financial Times ullirinakax 18.9 ukjaw taypicha ajllipxäna (atipt'ir ajlliwix 13), ukat 19,196 Politiken ullirinakax 32.4 ukjaw taypicha ajllipxäna [2][3].
  • 33 ukar wayt'äwi: 2015 New York Times ukan niya 56,000 ullirin utjkän uka versión ukanxa, 33 ukaw juk'amp ajllitäna [5].
  • Kawkitsa amuyux juti: John Maynard Keynes economistaq bolsa qullqichäw qhathux suma ajanunakan atipt'asiwipar uñtatawa sasaw amuyäna: yaqhanakax kawkïr ajan ajllipkani uk ajllisa atipt'asma [6].

Kunjamsa anatawix irnaqi

  1. Mä entero jakhüwi ajllim 0 ukata 100 ukakama, ukat ch'akkatam.
  2. Aka semanan taqinin ajlliwipax ronda jist'antatäxipan taypichataw, ukat puriñax uka taypichata 2/3 ukawa.
  3. Jak'ankir ajlliw atipji. Kikpankir ajlliwix atipt'äwi jaljasi. Lunes urunxa, página ukan pasïr semanan anatañanakapa, taypicha, puriwi, atipt'ir ajlliw ukat sapa jakhüwix kunjamsa ajllitäna ukanak uñacht'ayi.

Sapa rondan mä jaqin mä ajlliwipakiwa jakthapitäni. Sapa navegador ukat sapa internet ukar mantawit mä ajlliw jakthaptan, ukatwa mä red chikanchirinakax (yatiña uta, oficina, familia) mä semanan mä kutikiwa jakthapitäpxi. Payïr ajlliwix janiw jakthapitäkiti. Ajllitat uka qhipatxa, página ukan jakhüwimax amuyt'äwin escalerapan kawkinkisa ukat uñt'at atipt'asiwinakan kunjamsa atipaspäna uk uñacht'ayi.

Kunsa anatawix tupu, ukat kawkitsa uñstawayi

Economistas ukanakax aka anatawirux p-belleza anatawi sapxi, akanxa p = 2/3. Rosemarie Nagel warmiw 1995 maran laboratorio yant'äwjam uñt'ayäna [1]. Jupax akham amuyäna: jaqinakax janiw 0 ukakama amuyt'apkiti, ni ina ch'usaki ajllipkiti. Jilapachax "jupax nayat amuyt'i" sasaw mä jan ukax pä amuyt'äwir tukuyapxi.

Uka amuyux, jaqinakax yaqhanakat mä juk'a amuyt'äwinakaki amuyt'apxi, ukaw nivel-k ukat amuyt'äwin jerarquía modelos de pensamiento estratégico ukar tuküna [4][7]. Qhipat jutir yatiyir laphi atipt'asiwinakax, sapa mayan waranq waranq ullirinakampi, kikpa 33 ukat 22 amuyt'äwinak uñacht'ayäna, ukat mä taman 0 jan ukax 1 ajllipxäna [2].

Kunsa aka anatawix yatiyistaspa ukat jan yatiykistaspa

Nivelamax mä anatawin mä ajlliwim uñacht'ayi. Janiw amuyt'añ ch'amam tupkiti, ukat juk'amp manqha nivelax janiw juk'amp askïkiti: jaqinak taypin khititix sum predictki ukaw atipji, ukat jaqinakax jilapachax mä jan ukax pä amuyt'äwimpikiwa sayt'apxi. Nivel 4 ajlliwix wali amuyt'ataw, ukampis jilapachax puriwi aynacharu puriyi.

Akan anatañanakax uka semanan puririnakawa, janiw pachpa muestra jaqinakäkiti, ukatwa puriñax semanata semanar mayjt'i. Uñt'at atipt'asiwinakan mä juk'a yaqha kamachinakaw utjäna: Financial Times ukax entero jakhunaka sapaki iyawsañäna, Politiken ukat Spektrum ukax decimal jakhunak iyawsapxäna [2][3].

Jiskt'äwinakax sapa kutiwa jiskt'asi

¿Taypita 2/3 ajlliwix kuna jaysäwisa?

Taypita 2/3 ajlliwix janiw mä fijo jaysäwinïkiti. Anatawinakan amuyt'äwipax 0 siwa, kunatix sapa anatañax taqin sipan juk'amp jisk'a ajlliñatakiw mä razón utji. Ukampis chiqpach jaqinakax mä jan ukax pä amuyt'äwiruw sayt'apxi, ukatwa yatiyat atipt'asiwinakan atipt'ir jakhux 13 ukat 21.6 taypinkäna [2][3]. Wali ask ajlliwix, yaqhanakax taypicha kawkïr jakhüw ajllipkan uk amuykäta ukat 2/3 ukawa.

¿Kunatsa 0 janiw atipkiti?

Cero ukax niya taqinis tukuykam amuyt'apxaspa ukhakiw atipaspäna. Chiqpach atipt'asiwinakan waljaniw 33 jan ukax 22 jak'a ajllipxi, yaqhipasti jach'a jakhunaka ajllipxi, ukaw taypicharux jilxattayi. Financial Times atipt'asiwinxa, taypichax 18.9 ukänwa, ukat puriñax 12.6, 0 ukat wali jayankänwa [2].

¿"Nivel 2 amuyt'ir" sañax kamsañsa muni?

Nivel 2 amuyt'iriw yaqha jaqinakax mä kuti nayraqatar amuyt'apxani (33 jak'a ajllipxani) sasaw amuyi, ukat jupax mä kutimpi nayraqatar amuyt'i: 33 ukan 2/3 ukax niya 22. Helibrain anatawinxa, nivelamax escaleran jakhüwim jak'ankki ukawa (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) [1].

¿Mä kutit sipans juk'amp anatiristti?

Jïsa, ukampis sapa semanan nayrïr ajlliwimakiw rondan jakthapitäni. Qhipa ajlliwix escaleran uñacht'ayatäniwa, ukampis janiw jakthapitäkiti, ukhamatwa khitis walja kuti ajllisax resultadorux jan mayjt'aykaspati. Sapa lunes uruw machaq ronda qallti.

¿Helibrain 2/3 anatawix chiqpachati inaki?

Jïsa. Helibrain 2/3 anatawi ukat sapa semanan resultados ukanakax inakiwa: qillqantasiñani, correo electrónico jan munasa, qullqi jan churasisa. Helibrain app ukan qullqi jikxati, uka app ukax inaki plan ukat qullqit plan ukanakaniwa; anatañatakix app jan munaskiti.

Uñtasir yant'awinaka

Taqi 43 inaki p'iqi yant'awinaka uñjaña

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Aka laphi jalsur uñstayam: Taypita 2/3 amuyt'aña. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/ay/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Fuentes

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (números del documento de trabajo de 1999: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Kunjams aka laphi wakichapxta: Helibrain irnaqirinakaw aka patan qillqt'at yatxatäwinakat qillqapxta, ukat Robert(Ingles aru) (biofísica tuqita doctorado yatiqiri) ukawa 11/4/2026 urun uñakipawayi. Yatiyawinak mayjt'kipanx machaqaptayapxta.