Akanya 2/3 ya Palogare

Kgetha nomoro. Mošipi ke yo a batamelago kudu go 2/3 ya palogare ya bohle bekeng ye. Ke mahala, ga go nyakege go ingwadiša.

Ka sehlopha sa HelibrainE lekotšwe ke Robert(Seisemane), moithuti wa PhD ya thutaphedi ya fisikisiE gatišitšwe ka E lekotšwe la mafelelo ka

Tsela ya go bala dipoelo tša gago

  • Maemo a gago a bontšha gore o naganne ka dikgato tše kae pele. Go akanya kgauswi le 50 ke maemo a 0: ga se wa nagana ka tšeo ba bangwe ba tlago go di dira. Kgauswi le 33 ke maemo a 1: "batho ba tla akanya mo e ka bago 50". Kgauswi le 22 ke maemo a 2: "batho ba tla nagana kgato e tee pele". Kgato e nngwe le e nngwe ke 2/3 ya ya pele [1].
  • Karabo ya teori ya dipapadi ke 0. Ge yo mongwe le yo mongwe a be a ka nea mabaka go fihla mafelelong, dikakanyo ka moka di be di tla fokotšega go fihla go 0. Bapadi ba kgonthe ga ba ke ba dira se, ka gona 0 ga se ya ka ya thopa phadišano ya setšhaba [1][2].
  • O ka se tsoge o thopile: akanyo ya ka godimo ga 66.7 e ka se thope, ka gobane le ge yo mongwe le yo mongwe a be a ka akanya 100, palo yeo go lebeletšwego gore e fihlelelwe e be e tla ba 66.7.
  • Mothopi wa bekeng ye o tla bonagala ge mokgato o fedile (mokgato o mongwe le o mongwe ke beke, go tloga ka Mošupologo go fihla ka Sontaga, UTC). Ga re ke re bontšha palogare ya bjale pele ga moo: e be e tla senya papadi. Mokgato o swanetše go ba le bapalami ba bonnyane ba 30 gore go be le dipoelo.

Ke nomoro efe yeo e kaone go e akanya?

Ga go na nomoro e tee ye kaone ka mehla: go ithekgile ka tšeo ba bangwe ka moka ba di akanyago. Diphadišanong tše dikgolo tša setšhaba, palo yeo go lebeletšwego gore e fihlelelwe e be e le magareng ga mo e ka bago 13 le 22. Babadi ba Financial Times ba be ba na le palogare ya 18.9, ka gona palo yeo go bego go lebeletšwe gore e fihlelelwe e bile 12.6 [2]. Phadišanong ya kuranta ya Denmark yeo e bego e na le babadi ba 19,196, palogare e be e le 32.4 gomme palo yeo go bego go lebeletšwe gore e fihlelelwe e le 21.6 [3].

Tšhate ya dikholomo: palogare ya dikakanyo le palo yeo go lebeletšwego gore e fihlelelwe diphadišanong tše nne tše di gatišitšwego. Thuto ya laboratoring ya 1995: palogare 36.7, palo yeo go lebeletšwego gore e fihlelelwe 24.5. Politiken 2005: palogare 32.4, palo yeo go lebeletšwego gore e fihlelelwe 21.6. Spektrum 1997: palogare 22.1, palo yeo go lebeletšwego gore e fihlelelwe 14.7. Financial Times 1997: palogare 18.9, palo yeo go lebeletšwego gore e fihlelelwe 12.6.
Seswantšho 1. Palogare ya dikakanyo le palo ya 2/3 yeo go lebeletšwego gore e fihlelelwe diphadišanong tše nne tše di gatišitšwego. Tshedimošo: Nagel 1995, mokgato wa pele, barutwana ba 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, babadi ba 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, babadi ba 2,728, le Financial Times 1997, babadi ba 1,476 [2].

Tsopola letlakala le: Akanya 2/3 ya Palogare. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/nso/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Dintlha ka boripana

  • Seo e se bontšhago: gore o nagana dikgato tše kae pele ka seo batho ba bangwe ba tlago go se dira. Ditsebi tša ekonomi di bitša se go nagana ga level-k [1][4].
  • Teko ya kgale ye e tsebjago: mokgatong wa pele wa thuto ya Rosemarie Nagel ya 1995, barutwana ba ile ba akanya palogare ya 36.7, gomme dikakanyo tšeo di tlwaelegilego kudu di be di le kgauswi le 33 le 22 [1].
  • Diphadišano tše dikgolo: babadi ba Financial Times ba 1,476 ba bile le palogare ya 18.9 (akanyo yeo e thopilego e bile 13), gomme babadi ba Politiken ba 19,196 ba bile le palogare ya 32.4 [2][3].
  • Go gogela go 33: kgatišong ya 2015 ya New York Times yeo e bilego le babadi ba mo e ka bago 56,000, 33 e bile akanyo yeo e kgethilwego kudu [5].
  • Moo kgopolo ye e tšwago gona: setsebi sa ekonomi John Maynard Keynes se bapeditše mmaraka wa dišere le phadišano ya botse yeo o thopago ka go kgetha sefahlego seo ba bangwe ba tlago go se kgetha [6].

Tsela yeo papadi e šomago ka yona

  1. Kgetha nomoro ya felela go tloga go 0 go fihla go 100, gomme o e tiiše.
  2. Dikakanyo tša beke ye tša bohle di arolwa ka palo ya tšona ge mokgato o tswalwa, gomme palo yeo go lebeletšwego gore e fihlelelwe ke 2/3 ya palogare yeo.
  3. Yo a akanyago kgauswi kudu ke yena a thopago. Ge go lekana, ba abelana phenyo. Ka Mošupologo, letlakala le bontšha dibapadi tša beke e fetilego, palogare, palo yeo go bego go lebeletšwe gore e fihlelelwe, akanyo yeo e thopilego le gore nomoro e nngwe le e nngwe e akantšwe ga kae.

Akanyo e tee ya motho yo mongwe le yo mongwe ke yona e balwago mokgatong o mongwe le o mongwe. Re bala akanyo e tee go tšwa go sephephediši se sengwe le se sengwe le kgokagano e tee ya inthanete, ka gona batho bao ba abelanago neteweke (sekolo, ofisi, lapa) ba balwa gatee ka beke. Akanyo ya bobedi ga e balwe. Gateetee ge o feditše go akanya, letlakala le bontšha gore nomoro ya gago e wela kae mo manamelong a mabaka le gore e ka be e dirile bjang diphadišanong tše di tumilego tšeo di lego ka mo godimo.

Seo papadi e se elago, le moo e tšwago gona

Ditsebi tša ekonomi di bitša papadi ye phadišano ya botse ya p, moo p = 2/3 mo. Rosemarie Nagel o ile a dira gore e tsebje kudu bjalo ka teko ya laboratoring ka 1995 [1]. Seo a se hweditšego: batho ga ba nagane go fihla mafelelong go fihla go 0, e bile ga ba akanye ka go se rulaganye. Ba bantši ba ema ka morago ga dikgato tše tee goba tše pedi tša go nagana gore "ba nagana gore nna ke nagana".

Kgopolo ye ya gore batho ba nagana dikgato tše mmalwa feela ka ba bangwe, e ile ya fetoga metheo ya level-k le ya maemo a tshekatsheko ya monagano ya go nagana ka maano [4][7]. Diphadišano tša dikuranteng tšeo di ilego tša latela, tšeo e nngwe le e nngwe e bego e na le babadi ba dikete, di bontšhitše dikgato tše di swanago go 33 le 22, go tlaleletša sehlopha seo se kgethilego 0 goba 1 [2].

Seo papadi ye e ka se go botšago le seo e ka se go botšego

Maemo a gago a hlalosa akanyo e tee papading e tee. Ga se tekanyo ya bohlale, e bile maemo a godimo ga a bolele gore o kaone: mothopi ke yo a bolelago ka tshwanelo seo bontši bo tlago go se akanya, gomme gantši bontši bo ema ka morago ga kgato e tee goba tše pedi. Akanyo ya maemo a 4 ke mabaka a bohlale ao gantši a feleletšago a le ka tlase ga palo yeo go bego go lebeletšwe gore e fihlelelwe.

Bapadi ba mo ke batho feela bao ba etelago letlakala beke yeo, ga se sehlopha sa batho seo se sa fetogego; ka gona palo yeo go lebeletšwego gore e fihlelelwe e a fetoga beke le beke. Diphadišano tše di tumilego di be di na le melao ye e fapanago gannyane: Financial Times e be e dumelela dinomoro tša felela feela, mola Politiken le Spektrum di be di dumelela dipalo tša dipheto [2][3].

Dipotšišo tšeo di botšišwago gantši

Karabo ya go akanya 2/3 ya palogare ke efe?

Go akanya 2/3 ya palogare ga go na karabo e tee ya ka mehla. Teori ya dipapadi e re ke 0, ka gobane sebapadi se sengwe le se sengwe se na le lebaka la go ya tlase ga tšeo ba bangwe ka moka ba di akanyago. Eupša batho ba kgonthe ba ema ka morago ga dikgato tše tee goba tše pedi, ka gona diphadišanong tše di gatišitšwego nomoro yeo e thopilego e be e le magareng ga 13 le 21.6 [2][3]. Akanyo e kaone ke 2/3 ya seo o naganago gore ba bangwe ba tla se akanya ka palogare.

Ke ka baka la eng 0 e sa thope?

Zero e be e tla thopa feela ge mo e ka bago motho yo mongwe le yo mongwe a be a ka nagana go fihla mafelelong. Diphadišanong tša kgonthe, batho ba bantši ba akanya mo e ka bago 33 goba 22, gomme ba bangwe ba akanya dinomoro tše dikgolo, tšeo di phagamišago palogare. Phadišanong ya Financial Times, palogare e be e le 18.9 gomme palo yeo go bego go lebeletšwe gore e fihlelelwe e le 12.6, kgole le 0 [2].

Go ra gore eng ge go thwe "moganani wa maemo a 2"?

Moganani wa maemo a 2 o letetše gore batho ba bangwe ba nagane kgato e tee pele (ba tla akanya mo e ka bago 33), gomme yena o tšwela kgato e tee pele: 2/3 ya 33 ke mo e ka bago 22. Papading ya Helibrain, maemo a gago ke kgato mo manamelong (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) yeo akanyo ya gago e batamelago kudu go yona [1].

Nka bapala makga a fetago tee?

Ee, eupša ke akanyo ya gago ya mathomo feela ya beke yeo yeo e balwago mokgatong. Dikakanyo tša ka morago di bontšhwa manamelong, eupša ga di balwe, ka gona ga go yo a ka fetošago dipoelo ka go akanya makga a mantši. Mokgato o mofsa o thoma Mošupologo o mongwe le o mongwe.

Na papadi ya Helibrain ya 2/3 ke ya mahala e le ka kgonthe?

Ee. Papadi ya Helibrain ya 2/3 le dipoelo ka moka tša beke le beke ke tša mahala: ga go nyakege go ingwadiša, imeile goba tefo. Helibrain e hwetša letseno go tšwa go tirišo ya yona, yeo e nago le peakanyo ya mahala le tšeo di lefelwago; ga go hlokagale gore o be le tirišo yeo gore o bapale.

Diteko tše di tswalanago

Bona diteko ka moka tše 43 tša mahala tša bjoko

O nyaka go šoma ka se letšatši le letšatši? App ya Helibrain (ga bjale e hwetšagala ka Seisemane) e na le leano la mahala le mananeo ao a lefelwago.

Tsopola letlakala le: Akanya 2/3 ya Palogare. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/nso/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Methopo

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (numbers from the 1999 working paper: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Kamoo re hlamilego letlakala le ka gona: le ngwadilwe ke sehlopha sa Helibrain go ya ka dinyakišišo tše di lokeleditšwego ka mo godimo, gomme la lekwa ke Robert(Seisemane) (moithuti wa PhD ya thutaphedi ya fisikisi) ka 2026 Nofemere 4. Re le mpshafatša ge methopo e fetoga.