2/3 ka tɔgɔli

Sugandi nimɔrɔ dɔ. Dɔgɔkun in na, mɔgɔ min ka nimɔrɔ surunyalen bɛ 2/3 la mɔgɔw nimɔrɔw cɛmancɛ ma, o bɛ se. Dawɔtɔ, sɛbɛnni tɛ.

Helibrain baarakɛlaw fɛRobert ye a lajɛ, biophysiki doktɔrɔya kalan laban na(Angilɛkan)A labɛnni taara laA lajɛ kokura la

I ka jaabi kalan cogo

  • I ka janya bɛ jira i hakili ka taa ɲɛ hakili yɔrɔ joli la. Jaabi min bɛ 50 surun, o ye janya 0 ye: i ma mɔgɔ wɛrɛw kɔrɔfɔ. Jaabi min bɛ 33 surun, o ye janya 1 ye: "mɔgɔw bɛ nimɔrɔ 50 lajɛ". Jaabi min bɛ 22 surun, o ye janya 2 ye: "mɔgɔw bɛna hakili kɛ ka taa yɔrɔ kelen ɲɛ". Janya kelen bɛɛ ye 2/3 ye min bɛ a ɲɛ [1].
  • Jogo hakiliw ka jaabi ye 0 ye. Ni mɔgɔ bɛɛ hakili kɛ ka taa a laban na, jaabi bɛɛ bɛna dɔgɔya ka taa 0 ma. Mɔgɔ minnu bɛ jogo kɛ tuma bɛɛ tɛ o kɛ, o la 0 ma tugu lajɛli jama kunna [1][2].
  • Se tɛ a la: jaabi min ka bon 66.7 ni, o tɛ se ka jogo la, sababu ni mɔgɔ bɛɛ tun bɛna 100 digi, yɔrɔ la target tun bɛna kɛ 66.7 ye.
  • Dɔgɔkun in ka sebagaw bɛna jira waati min round laban, (round kelen bɛ kɛ dɔgɔkun ye, lundi ka taa dimanche ma, UTC waati la). An tɛ average ka ɲɛfɔ hali o waati, sababu o bɛ jogo tiɲɛ. Round ka kan ka mɔgɔ 30 sɔrɔ ka jaabi sɔrɔ.

Nimɔrɔ jumɛn ka kan ka sugandi?

Sugandi nimɔrɔ kelen tɛ min ka fisa waati bɛɛ: o bɛ mɔgɔ wɛrɛw ka sugandi cogo la. Lajɛli jama kɔrɔtalenw la, target tun bɛ kɛ 13 ni 22 cɛma. Financial Times kalanbagaaw ka average tun ye 18.9 ye, o la target tun ye 12.6 ye [2]. Danemark ka gazetɛ lajɛli dɔ kɔnɔ, kalanbaga 19,196 tun bɛ yen, average tun ye 32.4 ye ani target tun ye 21.6 ye [3].

Kari bar: lajɛli naani bɛɛ ka average sugandi ni target. Lab lajɛli 1995: average 36.7, target 24.5. Politiken 2005: average 32.4, target 21.6. Spektrum 1997: average 22.1, target 14.7. Financial Times 1997: average 18.9, target 12.6.
Ja 1. Average sugandi ni 2/3 target lajɛli min naanina kɔnɔ. Kunnafoni: Nagel 1995, round fɔlɔ, kalanbaga 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, kalanbaga 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, kalanbaga 2,728, ani Financial Times 1997, kalanbaga 1,476 [2].

Ɲɛ nin jira i ka bɔyɔrɔ ye: 2/3 ka tɔgɔli. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/bm/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Kunnadiya kunnafoniw

  • Mun bɛ jira: janya joli la i bɛ hakili kɛ mɔgɔ wɛrɛw bɛna mun kɛ. Ekonomisitiw bɛ o fɔ level-k miirili ye [1][4].
  • Lajɛli kɔrɔtalen: Rosemarie Nagel ka 1995 lajɛli round fɔlɔ la, kalanbagaw sugandiliw ka average tun ye 36.7 ye, ani sugandili minnu tun bɛ ka sɔrɔ ka ca, olu tun bɛ 33 ni 22 surun [1].
  • Lajɛli jama kɔrɔtalenw: Financial Times kalanbaga 1,476 ka average tun ye 18.9 ye (sugandili min se tun ye 13 ye), ani Politiken kalanbaga 19,196 ka average tun ye 32.4 ye [2][3].
  • 33 ka cɛɲɛ: New York Times ka 2015 cogo dɔ kɔnɔ, kalanbaga 56,000 surun na, 33 tun ye sugandili min ka ca [5].
  • Miirili in bɔ yɔrɔ min: ekonomisiti John Maynard Keynes ye bɔrɔsi ka lajɛli ni cɛɲɛya lajɛli taamasiyɛn kelen kɛ, mɔgɔ bɛna se ni a ye kuntigi minnu bɛna sugandi, o sugandili kɛ [6].

Jogo in bɛ baara cogo min na

  1. Sugandi nimɔrɔ dogo dɔ 0 ni 100 cɛma, ka a digi.
  2. Dɔgɔkun in na mɔgɔ bɛɛ ka sugandiliw bɛna lajɛ ka average kɛ round datugu waati la; target ye average nin 2/3 ye.
  3. Sugandili min ka surun target ma, o bɛ se. Ni sugandiliw bɛ kelenya, olu bɛ se ni jɔnjɔn ye. Lundi, yɔrɔ in bɛna dɔgɔkun kɔrɔ ka mɔgɔw, average, target, sugandili min se ani nimɔrɔ bɛɛ ka sugandiliw jira.

Mɔgɔ kelen ka sugandili kelen dɔrɔn bɛ kɔrɔ round kelen kɔnɔ. An bɛ sugandili kelen kɔrɔ browser kelen na ani sugandili kelen kɔrɔ internet boloda kelen na; o la mɔgɔ minnu bɛ yɔrɔ kelen na sigi (kalanso, biro, denmisɛn-faso), olu bɛ kelen dɔrɔn ye dɔgɔkun kelen kɔnɔ. Sugandili filanan tɛ kɔrɔ. I ka nimɔrɔ digi kɔfɛ sisan, yɔrɔ in bɛna jira i nimɔrɔ yɔrɔ reasoning ladder la ani a tun bɛna cogo min kɛ lajɛli kɔrɔtalenw kɔnɔ.

Jogo in bɛ mun jira, ani a bɔ yɔrɔ min

Ekonomisitiw bɛ jogo in fɔ p-beauty contest ye; yan p = 2/3. Rosemarie Nagel ye a kɛ lab lajɛli dɔ kɔrɔtalen ye san 1995 la [1]. A ye fɛn min ye, o ye nin ye: mɔgɔw tɛ miirili taa ka se 0 ma, ani olu tɛ nimɔrɔw sugandi aleatoiri cogo la. Bɛɛ caman bɛ jɔ janya 1 walima 2 kɔfɛ, "u bɛ miiri ko ne miiri".

Miirili in—mɔgɔw bɛ janya dɔrɔn miiri mɔgɔ wɛrɛw kan—ye level-k ni hakili taabolo modelw kɛ mɔgɔw ka jogo hakili kunna [4][7]. Gazetɛ lajɛli minnu kɔfɛna, kalanbaga kun bɛɛ kɔnɔ, o ye janya minnu 33 ni 22 la ye fɛn kelen jira; ani mɔgɔya dɔ sugandili ye 0 walima 1 ye [2].

Munna jogo in bɛna fɔ i ye ani munna a tɛna fɔ i ye

I ka janya bɛ sugandili kelen dɔrɔn fɔ jogo kelen kɔnɔ. A ma kɛ hakili dantigɛli ye, ani janya ka ca tɛ ko a ka fisa: sebagaw ye mɔgɔ minnu bɛ jama ka sugandiliw miiri ka bɛn a ma; jama bɛ janya 1 walima 2 la dɔrɔn jɔ. Sugandili janya 4 ye miirili sabatɔ ye min c’a la bɛ tɔ target kɔfɛ.

Mɔgɔ minnu bɛna juego in kɛ, olu ye mɔgɔ minnu bɛna na dɔgɔkun in na ye; olu ma kɛ mɔgɔ suganditɔ kelen ye, o la target bɛ yɛlɛma dɔgɔkun bɛɛ. Lajɛli kɔrɔtalenw ka sariyaw dɔw tun bɛ wɛrɛya dɔɔnin: Financial Times ye nimɔrɔ dogow dɔrɔn bila, Politiken ni Spektrum ye nimɔrɔ ni kala dɔw fana bila [2][3].

Sɔrɔda ɲininkaliw

2/3 ka mɔgɔw average jaabi ye mun ye?

2/3 ka mɔgɔw average sugandili tɛ jaabi kelen sigitɔ ye. Jogo hakiliw bɛ fɔ 0, sababu mɔgɔ bɛɛ sɔrɔ sababu ka taa dɔgɔya ka tɛmɛ mɔgɔ wɛrɛw bɛɛ kan. Nka mɔgɔ finiw bɛ jɔ janya 1 walima 2 kɔfɛ, o la lajɛli kɔrɔtalenw kɔnɔ nimɔrɔ minnu se, olu tun bɛ 13 ni 21.6 cɛma [2][3]. Sugandili min ka fisa ye mɔgɔ wɛrɛw ka average sugandili min bɛ i jigiya la, o nin 2/3 ye.

Mun na 0 tɛ se?

0 tun bɛna se ni mɔgɔ kɔrɔtalen dɔrɔn ye miirili taa ka se a laban na. Lajɛli kɔrɔtalenw kɔnɔ, mɔgɔ caman bɛ nimɔrɔ 33 walima 22 surun sugandi, ani dɔw bɛ nimɔrɔ kɔrɔtalenw sugandi, o bɛ average yɛlɛma ka bonya. Financial Times lajɛli la, average tun ye 18.9 ye ani target tun ye 12.6 ye, o ka jan kosɛbɛ 0 ma [2].

"Level 2 miirila" kɔrɔ ye mun ye?

Level-2 miirila bɛ jigiya ko mɔgɔ wɛrɛw bɛna miiri yɔrɔ kelen ɲɛ (u bɛna nimɔrɔ 33 surun sugandi), a bɛ taa yɔrɔ kelen wɛrɛ ɲɛ: 33 nin 2/3 ye 22 surun ye. Helibrain jogo la, i ka janya ye ladder yɔrɔ ye (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) min i ka sugandili bɛ surun [1].

Ne bɛ se ka jogo kɛ siɲɛ damadɔ?

Ɔwɔ, nka dɔgɔkun bɛɛ na, i ka sugandili fɔlɔ dɔrɔn bɛ kɔrɔ round la. Sugandili kɔfɛna bɛ ladder la jira, nka olu tɛ kɔrɔ, o la mɔgɔ si tɛ se ka jaabi yɛlɛma ni sugandili caman ye. Round kura bɛ daminɛ lundi bɛɛ.

Helibrain 2/3 game ye dafalen ye wa?

Ɔwɔ. Helibrain 2/3 game ni dɔgɔkun bɛɛ ka jaabiw ye dafalen ye: sɛbɛnni tɛ, imeli tɛ, wari sara tɛ. Helibrain bɛ wari sɔrɔ a app la, min bɛ plan dafalen ni plan sara ye; i mako tɛ app la walasa i ka jogo kɛ.

Dantigɛli wɛrɛw

Hakili dantigɛli 43 bɛɛ lajɛ, minnu bɛ kɛ wari tɛ

I b'a fɛ ka baara kɛ nin kan tile bɛɛ wa? Helibrain aplikasɔn (o bɛ kuma Angilɛkan na sisan) bɛ ni plan min bɛ kɛ wari tɛ ani plan wari sara ta ye.

Ɲɛ nin jira i ka bɔyɔrɔ ye: 2/3 ka tɔgɔli. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/bm/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Kunnasenw

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (nimɔrɔw bɔ san 1999 ka baarakɛminɛn kɔnɔ: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

An ye nin sɛbɛnni kɛ cogo min na: Helibrain baarakɛlaw ye a sɛbɛn, ka da kunnafoniw kan minnu sɛbɛnni bɛ sanfɛ, ka a lajɛ ni Robert(Angilɛkan) ye (biophysiki doktɔrɔya kalan laban na) 4 nowanburu 2026 la. An b'a ladɔnniya kokura ni kunnafoniw yɛlɛma.