Doengj 2/3 gij bingzjungh

Doengj so ndeu. Gyoengqde guh ndei daengz so 2/3 gij bingzjungh gyoengqde cungj daj, cawj ngoenz caeuq mbouj biuh. Mbouj biuh, mbouj aeu dangjmingz.

Guh raeuz boux HelibrainDoiqgyaeuj by Robert(Vah Yiengj vunz), boux cawj biuz-vatGuhcawq Doiqgyaeuj daengz

Gij ndaej daj gij doengj

  • Gij cengh mwngz yienh gij cengh mwngz sim daeuj. Doengj gvaq 50, cengh 0: mbouj sim gij gyoengqde. Gvaq 33, cengh 1: "gij gyoengqde doengj 50". Gvaq 22, cengh 2: "gij gyoengqde sim gvaq ndeu". Cengh ndeu ndei 2/3 cengh gvaqmaz [1].
  • Gij daj game theory yaeuj 0. Mwh gij gyoengqde cungj sim daengz doiq, gij doengj cungj daengz 0. Gij doengj reih mbouj guh ndei neix, so 0 mbouj ndaej win gvaq cawj gyae yienh [1][2].
  • Mbouj ndaej win: so mwngz guh gvaq 66.7 mbouj ndaej win, habba gij gyoengqde cungj doengj 100, doiqgiet neix baenz 66.7.
  • Gij win ngoenzneix yienh de mwh cawj mizgiet (cawj ndeu caeuq sim ngoenz, ngoenz Ngeih daengz ngoenz Yid, UTC). Gvaq goeng mwh cawj mizgiet, mbouj yienh gij bingzjungh dingqnaeuz de doengh: de lwnh gij cawj. Cawj aeu miz gvaq 30 gyoengqde caezbaenz doiqgiet.

So ndeu ndei doengj gijmaz?

Mbouj miz so ndeu ndei cungj: de gvaq gij gyoengqde doengj gijmaz. Cawj goenggaiq gyae, doiqgiet baenz gvaq 13 daengz 22. Gij doengj bingzjungh gij doengh Financial Times 18.9, doiqgiet baenz 12.6 [2]. Mwh cawj gij sawj Danshk caeuq 19,196 lezdoengh, gij doengj bingzjungh 32.4, doiqgiet 21.6 [3].

Biuj gienj dangz: gij doengj bingzjungh caeuq doiqgiet cawj 4 yienh. Cawj lab 1995: bingzjungh 36.7, doiqgiet 24.5. Politiken 2005: bingzjungh 32.4, doiqgiet 21.6. Spektrum 1997: bingzjungh 22.1, doiqgiet 14.7. Financial Times 1997: bingzjungh 18.9, doiqgiet 12.6.
Biuj 1. Gij doengj bingzjungh caeuq doiqgiet 2/3 gyae cawj 4 yienh. Gij so: Nagel 1995, doiq 1, 67 hocsae [1]; Politiken 2005, 19,196 lezdoengh [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, 2,728 lezdoengh, caeuq Financial Times 1997, 1,476 lezdoengh [2].

Yungj gij naj neix: Doengj 2/3 gij bingzjungh. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/za/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Gij so cungq ndeu

  • Gij yienh: gyae gij cengh mwngz sim gij gyoengqde yienh gijmaz. Gij saenzjoeng hoix ndeix cengh-k sim [1][4].
  • Gij cawj yienh famous: doiq 1 gvaq gij cawj Rosemarie Nagel 1995, hocsae doengj 36.7 bingzjungh, gij so doengj gvaq gyae cawj 33 caeuq 22 [1].
  • Cawj gyae: 1,476 lezdoengh Financial Times doengj bingzjungh 18.9 (gij doengj win 13), caeuq 19,196 lezdoengh Politiken doengj bingzjungh 32.4 [2][3].
  • Gij ndaej daengz 33: mwh cawj New York Times 2015, miz 56,000 lezdoengh, 33 baenz so gyoengqde doengj gyae [5].
  • Gij sij yienh: saenzjoeng John Maynard Keynes biuj gij soengqcoih caeuq cawj ndeu, aeu win youq mwh doengj gij meh ndei gij gyoengqde doengj [6].

Gij hoix cawj yienh

  1. Doengj so ndeu cungj daeuj 0 daengz 100 caeuq dingh doengj.
  2. Gij doengj gyoengqde ngoenzneix bingzjungh mwh cawj mizgiet, doiqgiet neix baenz 2/3 gij bingzjungh.
  3. Gij doengj gvaq doiqgiet win. Doengj bingzjungh cawj win dingh doengj. Ngoenz Ngeih, vuj yienh gij doengh cawj daihngoenz, gij bingzjungh, doiqgiet, gij doengj win, caeuq gij so ndeu doengj gijmaz.

Cawj ndeu doiq gyoengqde cawj ndeu. Gij doengj ndeu doiq browser ndeu caeuq doiq internet ndeu, gyoengqde gvaq mboujndei doxgaiq gij internet (daengz hoc, daengz hoih guh, baenz vunz ndeu) doiq ndeu cawj. Doengj daihngeih mbouj doiq. Mwh mwngz doengj gvaq, vuj yienh gij so mwngz youq gij gyae sim, caeuq gij cawj famous mizgvaq mwngz guh gijmaz.

Gij game yienh gijmaz, caeuq gij cingq naeuz de daeuj

Gij saenzjoeng hoix game neix miz mingh p-beauty contest, yienh neix p = 2/3. Rosemarie Nagel guh de baenz gij doiqcawj lab famous mwh 1995 [1]. Gij raeuz: vunz mbouj sim daengz 0, caeuq mbouj doengj random naeuz. Gyae gyoengqde cawq ndeu caeuq cawq song youq "gijde sim naeuz gij ngwz sim".

Gij sim neix, vunz sim doiq gyoengqde cungj miz cawq, baenz model level-k caeuq cognitive hierarchy gij sim doiqcawj [4][7]. Gij cawj sawj daengz gyoengq lezdoengh gyae daeuj, yienh cawq doengj 33 caeuq 22, caeuq yienh gyoengqde doengj 0 caeuq 1 [2].

Gij game neix ndaej naeuz caeuq mbouj ndaej naeuz gijmaz

Gij cengh mwngz naeuz gij doengj ndeu youq game ndeu. De mbouj doiq gij sim ndei, caeuq cengh gyae mbouj baenz ndei: gyoengqde win de gij vunz sim gvaq ndei gij cungj vunz doengj, cungj vunz cawq ndeu caeuq song. Doengj cengh-4 miz sim ndei, caeuq gvaqbaenz doiqgiet daengz gvaq target.

Gij cawj neix cungj vunz gvaq ngoenzneix, mbouj baenz sample dingh, neix doiqgiet doengh gvaq cawj. Gij cawj famous gvaq gij quy dingh mbouj doengz: Financial Times aeu so cungj, Politiken caeuq Spektrum ndaej aeu decimal [2][3].

Gij sox ndaq hwnj baenz cawj

Gij daj doengj 2/3 gij bingzjungh baenz gijmaz?

Doengj 2/3 gij bingzjungh mbouj miz gij daj dingh. Game theory naeuz 0, yinz gij cawj cungj miz gij byawj aeu doengj gvaq gyoengqde. Caeznaeuz vunz cawq ndeu caeuq song, neix cawj yienh gij so win baenz 13 daengz 21.6 [2][3]. Gij doengj ndei neix 2/3 gij doengh mwngz sim gij gyoengqde doengj bingzjungh.

Gijmaz 0 mbouj win?

Zero win neix aeu gyoengqde gyae sim daengz doiq. Cawj yienh, gyae vunz doengj gvaq 33 caeuq 22, caeuq miz gyoengqde doengj so gyae, neix daengz gij bingzjungh. Mwh cawj Financial Times, gij bingzjungh 18.9 caeuq doiqgiet 12.6, gyae daeuj 0 [2].

"Vunz sim cengh 2" yienh gijmaz?

Vunz sim cengh-2 sim gij vunz daihndeu sim gvaq cawq (de doengj 33) caeuq sim gvaq ndeu: 2/3 daengz 33 gvaq 22. Youq game Helibrain, gij cengh mwngz neix gij cawq youq gyae (50, 33, 22, 15, 10) gij doengj mwngz gvaq ndei [1].

Gaeq cawj gvaq ndeu?

Ndaej, caeuq cawj ndeu doiq gij doengj ndeu ngoenzneix. Doengj daihngeih vuj yienh youq gyae, mbouj doiq, neix mbouj miz vunz guh doiqgiet gvaq doengj gyae. Cawj rux baenz ngoenz Ngeih.

Game Helibrain 2/3 cawj mbouj biuh haenq?

Haenq. Game Helibrain 2/3 caeuq gij doiqgiet ngoenzneix cungj mbouj biuh: mbouj aeu dangjmingz, mbouj aeu email, mbouj aeu ngaenz. Helibrain ndaej ngaenz cungq gij app, de miz plan mbouj biuh caeuq plan aeu ngaenz; cawj mbouj aeu app.

Gij cawj sim doxgaiq

Duj cawj sim mbouj yungz ngaenz 43 cungj

Mwngz soengq guh gij ndei ngoenz-ngoenz mah? Yungz Helibrain (ndaw vah Yiengj vunz ndaej cingq) miz baenz ndei mbouj yungz ngaenz caeuq baenz yungz ngaenz.

Yungj gij naj neix: Doengj 2/3 gij bingzjungh. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/za/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Gij gij cingq

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (numbers from the 1999 working paper: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

Guh raeuz gij sawj ndei ndaw raeuz: boux Helibrain saeh gij sawj daengz gwnz, caeuq doiqgyaeuj by Robert(Vah Yiengj vunz) (boux cawj biuz-vat) daengz 2026 ndwencib’it 4. Raez sangj gyaeuj deih cingq gij cawj.