Average 2/3 chu thlang rawh

Nambar pakhat thlang rawh. He kar mi zawng zawng average zinga 2/3 hnaih ber thlangtu chu a hneh. Man pek lova khelh theih, signup a ngai lo.

Helibrain pawl ziakRobert(English), biophysics zirna PhD zirlaia awmten enfiah tawh a chhuahA hnuhnunga enfiah ni

I result chhiar dan

  • I level chuan eng zatin nge hma lam ngaihtuah i tih a entir. 50 hnaih thlangna chu level 0 a ni: mi dangte chunga ngaihtuahna nei lo. 33 hnaih chu level 1 a ni: "mi dangte chuan 50 vel an thlang ang" tih ngaihtuahna. 22 hnaih chu level 2 a ni: "mi dangte chuan hma lamah hma khat an ngaihtuah ang" tih ngaihtuahna. Hma khat tin chu a hmaa awm 2/3 a ni [1].
  • Game theory-in a sawi chhanna chu 0 a ni. Mi zawng zawngin tawp thleng ngaihtuah ta se, thlangna zawng zawng chu 0 thleng a tlahniam ang. Mi takte chuan chutiangin an ti ngai lo, chuvangin public contest-ah 0 chu a hneh ngai lo [1][2].
  • A hneh thei ngai lo: 66.7 aia sang thlangna chu a hneh thei lo, mi zawng zawngin 100 an thlang vek pawhin target chu 66.7 a nih avangin.
  • He kar hnehna changtu chu round a tawp hnuah a lang ang (round pakhat chu kar khat, Monday atanga Sunday, UTC). Hnehna tihchhiat theih a nih avangin live average chu kan lantir ngai lo. Result a awm theih nan player tlem ber 30 a ngai.

Eng nambar nge thlan tha ber?

Nambar pakhat thlan tha ber tih a awm lo: mi dang zawng zawngin eng nge an thlan tihah a innghat. Public contest lianah target chu 13 leh 22 karah a awm. Financial Times chhiartu-te average chu 18.9 a ni a, chuvangin target chu 12.6 a ni [2]. Denmark newspaper contest-a chhiartu 19,196-te zingah average chu 32.4 a ni a, target chu 21.6 a ni [3].

Bar chart: contest chhuah tawh pali-ah average thlangna leh target. Lab study 1995: average 36.7, target 24.5. Politiken 2005: average 32.4, target 21.6. Spektrum 1997: average 22.1, target 14.7. Financial Times 1997: average 18.9, target 12.6.
Figure 1. Contest chhuah tawh pali-a average thlangna leh 2/3 target. Data: Nagel 1995, round hmasa ber, zirlaite 67 [1]; Politiken 2005, chhiartu 19,196 [3]; Spektrum der Wissenschaft 1997, chhiartu 2,728, leh Financial Times 1997, chhiartu 1,476 [2].

He phek hi hnâr anga târ lang rawh: Average 2/3 chu thlang rawh. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/lus/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

Thil hriat tur tawi

  • A entir chu: mi dangte thil tih tur i ngaihtuahna hma zatin nge a thlen. Economist-te chuan level-k thinking an ti [1][4].
  • Experiment hlui: Rosemarie Nagel-a study 1995 round hmasa berah, zirlaite chuan average-ah 36.7 an thlang a, thlangna tam ber chu 33 leh 22 velah a awm [1].
  • Contest lian: Financial Times chhiartu 1,476 chuan average-ah 18.9 an thlang (thlangna hneh chu 13 a ni), Politiken chhiartu 19,196 chuan average-ah 32.4 an thlang [2][3].
  • 33 lam pan: 2015-a New York Times version, chhiartu 56,000 velin an telnaah 33 chu thlangna tam ber a ni [5].
  • He ngaihdan a lo chhuahna: Economist John Maynard Keynes chuan stock market kha beauty contest nen a tehkhin a, mi dangte thlang ang tih i hriat hma ber hmai i thlang chuan i hneh tihna a ni [6].

Infiamna kal dan

  1. 0 atanga 100 thleng nambar pum pakhat thlang la, nemnghet rawh.
  2. He kar mi zawng zawng thlangna chu round a khar hunah average-ah chhut a ni ang, target chu average zinga 2/3 a ni ang.
  3. Hnaih ber thlangtu chu a hneh. Thlangna inang an awm chuan hnehna an then ang. Monday-ah page chuan kar kalta-a player, average, target, thlangna hneh leh nambar tin an thlan zat a tarlang ang.

Round tinah mi pakhatin thlangna pakhat chauh chhiar a ni. Browser pakhat leh internet connection pakhat atangin thlangna pakhat kan chhiar, chuvangin network hmang tlang (school, office, chhungkua) mi-te chu kar khatah vawi khat kan chhiar. Thlangna pahnihna chu chhiar a ni lo. I thlang zawh veleh, reasoning ladder-ah i nambar awmna leh chunglam contest hmingthangte-ah engtiang nge a hlawh ang tih page-in a entir.

Infiamna hian eng nge a teh, khawi atangin nge a lo chhuah

Economist-te chuan he infiamna hi p-beauty contest an ti a, hetah hian p = 2/3 a ni. Rosemarie Nagel-i chuan 1995-ah lab experiment hmingthang takah a siam [1]. A hmuh chhuah chu: mi-te chuan 0 thlengin an ngaihtuah zui lo va, random-in pawh an thlang lo. Mi tam ber chuan "an ngaihtuah tih ka ngaihtuah" tih hma zatin hma khat emaw pahnih emaw an ngaihtuah a tawp.

Mi dangte chungchangah mi-te chuan hma tlem chauh an ngaihtuah tih ngaihdan chu level-k leh cognitive hierarchy model-te-ah a lo chang ta a, chu chu strategy ngaihtuahna model a ni [4][7]. A hnu-a newspaper contest-te, pakhat zelah chhiartu sang tam tak telnaah, hma khat 33 leh hma pahnih 22 chu a lang leh a, mi thenkhatin 0 emaw 1 emaw an thlang [2].

He infiamna hian eng nge a hrilh theih leh theih loh

I level chuan infiamna pakhat-a thlangna pakhat chauh a sawifiah. Mi fing dan tehna a ni lo, level sang zawk chu a tha zawk tihna pawh a ni lo: mipui tam zawk chu tu nge dik taka hrilh lawk thei tihah a hneh zawk, mipui tam zawk chuan hma khat emaw pahnih emaw chauh an ngaihtuah. Level-4 thlangna chu ngaihtuahna fing tak ni mah se, target aia hniam lamah a awm fo.

Hetah player-te chu he karah lo tlawhtu apiang an ni a, sample nghet an ni lo; chuvangin target chu kar tin a danglam. Contest hmingthangte chuan dan tlawm tê dang an hmang: Financial Times chuan nambar pum chauh a phal a, Politiken leh Spektrum chuan decimal pawh an phal [2][3].

Zawhna zawng zawng leh chhanna

Average zinga 2/3 thlangna chhanna eng nge?

Average zinga 2/3 thlangna chuan chhanna nghet a nei lo. Game theory chuan 0 a sawi, player tinte chuan mi dang zawng zawng aia hniam zawk thlang tura chhan an nei tih avangin. Nimahsela mi takte chuan hma khat emaw pahnih emaw an ngaihtuah a tawp; chuvangin contest chhuah tawhah nambar hnehna chu 13 leh 21.6 karah a awm [2][3]. Thlan tha ber chu mi dangte average thlang ang i rin zat zinga 2/3 a ni.

Engvangin nge 0 a hneh loh?

Mi tam zawk ten 0 thlengin an ngaihtuah vek chauh chuan 0 chu a hneh thei ang. Contest tak takah mi tam takin 33 emaw 22 emaw vel an thlang a, mi thenkhatin nambar sang zawk an thlang bawk; chutiang chuan average chu a sang lamah a hruai. Financial Times contest-ah average chu 18.9 a ni a, target chu 12.6 a ni; 0 atangin a hla hle [2].

"Level 2 thinker" tih awmzia eng nge?

Level-2 thinker chuan mi dangte chuan hma lamah hma khat an ngaihtuah ang (33 vel an thlang ang) tih a rin a, amah chuan hma khat dang a ngaihtuah belh: 33 zinga 2/3 chu 22 vel a ni. Helibrain infiamnaah i level chu 50, 33, 22, 15, 10 tih ladder-a hma i thlangna hnaih ber a ni [1].

Vawi tam ka khelh thei em?

Thei e, mahse kar tin i thlangna hmasa ber chauh chu round-a chhiar a ni. A hnu-a thlangna-te chu ladder-ah a lang ang, mahse chhiar a ni lo; chuvangin vawi tam thlangin mi tu mahin result a tidanglam thei lo. Monday tin round thar a inṭan.

Helibrain 2/3 infiamna chu man pek lova khelh theih tak nge?

A tak e. Helibrain 2/3 infiamna leh kar tin result zawng zawng chu man pek lova hman theih a ni: signup a ngai lo, email a ngai lo, sum pek a ngai lo. Helibrain chuan free plan leh sum pek plan nei app atangin sum a hmuh; khelh nan app i mamawh lo.

Endikna dang inzawmte

Man pek ngai lo rilru endikna 43 zawng zawng en rawh

Nitin hei hi tih zir duh em? Helibrain app (tunah chuan English tawngin chauh) -ah man pek ngai lo plan leh man pek plan a awm.

He phek hi hnâr anga târ lang rawh: Average 2/3 chu thlang rawh. Helibrain. 2026. https://helibrain.com/lus/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average. CC BY 4.0.

How this test works

This is a weekly strategy game. Pick a whole number from 0 to 100. When the week ends, everyone's guesses are averaged, and the winner is whoever comes closest to two thirds of that average. Right after you guess, you see how many steps ahead of other players your number suggests, and how it would have done in famous contests. Economists first ran this game as a lab experiment in 1995.

Version 1 · Cite this test:

Helibrain (2026). Guess 2/3 of the average, v1. https://helibrain.com/guess-two-thirds-of-the-average/methods

Full method →

Hnuaia thlalak leh thu ziahte

  1. Nagel R (1995). Unraveling in guessing games: an experimental study. American Economic Review 85(5):1313–1326. www.jstor.org/stable/2950991
  2. Bosch-Domènech A, Montalvo JG, Nagel R, Satorra A (2002). One, two, (three), infinity, …: newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments. American Economic Review 92(5):1687–1701. doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024737 (nambar-te chu 1999 working paper atanga lak: econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/438.pdf)
  3. Schou A (2005). Gæt-et-tal konkurrence afslører at vi er irrationelle. Politiken, 22 September 2005. politiken.dk/oekonomi/art5698526
  4. Camerer CF, Ho T-H, Chong J-K (2004). A cognitive hierarchy model of games. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3):861–898. doi.org/10.1162/0033553041502225
  5. Quealy K (2015). How readers fared in Upshot's number puzzle. The New York Times, 20 August 2015. www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/upshot/how-readers-fared-in-upshots-number-puzzle.html
  6. Keynes JM (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, chapter 12. London: Macmillan.
  7. Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995). On players' models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games and Economic Behavior 10(1):218–254. doi.org/10.1006/game.1995.1031

He laman thuziak hi engtin nge siam a nih: chunglam zirna te atangin Helibrain pawl-in a ziak a, Robert(English) (biophysics zirna PhD zirlaia awm) chuan 11/4/2026-ah a enfiah. Hnar thute a thlak a nih chuan kan tidanglam thin.